[KVB]

The problem with identifying edge(Expected Value) is you don't know all the possibilities of said event... That why you can't really know your edge to ANY event.

So?

This is not an argument against the value of estimating probablity, value, and margins. In fact, you are describing exactly why it is some of us can make better lines than others.

Common Darkside, you are bettor than this.

[pologq]

Learn your American odds, fractional odds, and implied odds.
And learn it like you learned your ABC's in first grade.

-150 means 60 percent.
60 percent means if you bet -150 chalk five times, you must win three out of five just to break even.
The better you understand this, the less inclined you'll bet chalk.

Most of you know this, and I apologize if it seems I'm talking down to you, but for the love of God, stay away from -180 if you have to.

help me out cause this is interesting.

so if the yankees are -180 straight up, would you suggest i go right to the runline over ML? i started doing that only cause i want more money to win but i would like to understand the math also.

[KVB]

Again..... What math is the smartest mathematicians employed by these bookmakers using for random(Chaotic) events?

Using regressions to determine which factors, and weight of factors, may be predictive. We can then use multiple statistical tests to help determine the validity or confidence, along with real world betting results.

Often there is an appearance of "randomness" or "chaos" that isn't really random or chaotic.

[stevenash]

help me out cause this is interesting.

so if the yankees are -180 straight up, would you suggest i go right to the runline over ML? i started doing that only cause i want more money to win but i would like to understand the math also.

I'd look into a two team money line parlay if you're strong on a -180 say Cole NYY bet.
I'll expand of that thought later, but I've got real life business to tend to.

I'll defer right now to my buddy KVB who is brilliant on these things.
KVB can help you out here too.

[Darkside Magick]

So?

This is not an argument against the value of estimating probablity, value, and margins. In fact, you are describing exactly why it is some of us can make better lines than others.

Common Darkside, you are bettor than this.

KVB... Yes we can all guess/estimate so said edge...Wait... First is a sporting event a random(Chaotic) event.. YES

A baseball game could end 1-0 or 14-2 or 7-2....What I am saying is What math is use to predict random (Chaotic) events

[Optional]

KVB... Yes we can all guess/estimate so said edge...Wait... First is a sporting event a random(Chaotic) event.. YES

A baseball game could end 1-0 or 14-2 or 7-2....What I am saying is What math is use to predict random (Chaotic) events

If results are truly random wouldn't every team trend to .500 success rate over time?

[Darkside Magick]

If results are truly random wouldn't every team trend to .500 success rate over time?

Random is unpredictability or no pattern.. That why I use (Chaotic) which is something that appears random but has a underlying pattern.. Order out of chaos

[pavyracer]

If math is important then how come a gambler has never won a mathematics award?

Gambling is 10% gut feeling and 90% luck.

[texhooper]

I’m freaking out man

[stevenash]

If math is important then how come a gambler has never won a mathematics award?

Gambling is 10% gut feeling and 90% luck.

MIT math geniuses beat casinos at blackjack.
They didn't win on gut feelings and it's wasn't dumb luck either.

[Brock Landers]

What's 24 + 33?

[JIBBBY]

If math is important then how come a gambler has never won a mathematics award?

Gambling is 10% gut feeling and 90% luck.

[PD77]

Did it work out well for mathdotcom? What happened to that dude?

[stevenash]

What's 24 + 33?

The number of products Heinz produces?

[biggie12]

Did it work out well for mathdotcom? What happened to that dude?

guy was mentally ill and a liar. Never ends well

[stevenash]

guy was mentally ill and a liar. Never ends well

Liars figure, figures don't lie.

[jjgold]

Sdql

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Did it work out well for mathdotcom? What happened to that dude?

Heard he was working register at corner grocery.

[stevenash]

Sdql

SQL is beyond math though JJ, SQL is a computer programming language, it's one thing to calculate percentages, it's another thing to master a complex computer language, especially if someone isn't computer savvy.

[freelee]

Random is unpredictability or no pattern.. That why I use (Chaotic) which is something that appears random but has a underlying pattern.. Order out of chaos

I'm curious do you believe Vegas doesn't use any math to determine spreads and over/unders? Also a NBA game could end in some chaotic manner and finish 14-2 correct?

[Optional]

Sdql

I was going to post the same thing.

SQL is beyond math though JJ, SQL is a computer programming language, it's one thing to calculate percentages, it's another thing to master a complex computer language, especially if someone isn't computer savvy.

Surprised you don't know about this Nashy.

Get some, you are going to love SDQL...
http://www.sdql.com/
https://sportsdatabase.com/MLB/query.html

[pologq]

I'd look into a two team money line parlay if you're strong on a -180 say Cole NYY bet.
I'll expand of that thought later, but I've got real life business to tend to.

I'll defer right now to my buddy KVB who is brilliant on these things.
KVB can help you out here too.

No rush. Was just asking.

[stevenash]

I was going to post the same thing.



Surprised you don't know about this Nashy.

Get some, you are going to love SDQL...
http://www.sdql.com/
https://sportsdatabase.com/MLB/query.html

I do know Opt.
Same principle, SQL for Excel or Sports, they're structured query languages.

I'm a creature of habit, I've been using MS Office Pro forever, so I never had a need for SDQL, like I say, same principle.

[Roscoe_Word]

There's a lot of online vig calculators, implied odds and a host of others.

The more tools the better, but, IMHO, one can get mathematically twisted and have one's attention diverted from whether he or she thinks their team will cover.

Not much of a consolation to me to have a L4 goin, but think I calculated my EV percentages correctly..............

[pologq]

There's a lot of online vig calculators, implied odds and a host of others.

The more tools the better, but, IMHO, one can get mathematically twisted and have one's attention diverted from whether he or she thinks their team will cover.

Not much of a consolation to me to have a L4 goin, but think I calculated my EV percentages correctly..............

agreed. i think there is a fine balance.

[SlickFazzer]

Protect your money.

Try for 5-7 percent ROI for a particular sport.

Any expectations more than that is a tough mountain to climb,
time could be spent on other money-making endeavors.

[flyingillini]

Justin7, Mathdotcom, Compaqdik, Ganchrow are the only posters that have ever had a clue. God Bless

[SlickFazzer]

So true Illini,

Justin7 also known as Simon Noble when he wrote for Pinnacle, and the book he wrote under the name E Fuesdal or however you spell it.

Ganchrow was on another level.

Mathdotcom was in chat often, another math wiz

and Compapdikk, so many stories over the year. Smart as a tack. Damn.

Justin7, Mathdotcom, Compaqdik, Ganchrow are the only posters that have ever had a clue. God Bless

[asiagambler]

Math will only get you so far

You are not betting in a vacuum

[flyingillini]

So true Illini,

Justin7 also known as Simon Noble when he wrote for Pinnacle, and the book he wrote under the name E Fuesdal or however you spell it.

Ganchrow was on another level.

Mathdotcom was in chat often, another math wiz

and Compapdikk, so many stories over the year. Smart as a tack. Damn.

Slicksster!!!! The one thing they all have in common is Baby Jesus, especially Justin. He is a devoted man to the Church. I would think all those great posters would tell you without Christ they don't win, they don't win in gambling or in life.


Joshua 1:8. 8 This Book of the Law shall not depart from your mouth, but you shall meditate on it day and night, so that you may be careful to do according to all that is written in it. For then you will make your way prosperous, and then you will have good success.

[GunShard]

Underdogs in division games in Week 1 covers 62.37% since 2005.

https://trendsagainstthespread.com/spread-data/divisional-matchups-trend/

Sharps know this betting trend.

[SlickFazzer]

Gun:

Is this still a viable trend to unload on, or has it been exposed?

Underdogs in division games in Week 1 covers 62.37% since 2005.

https://trendsagainstthespread.com/spread-data/divisional-matchups-trend/

Sharps know this betting trend.

[KVB]

Oh boy this thread, not sure where to begin...lol.

Let's start with trends are not math, especially those with such a small sample size, and I would dare to say that's exactly why this thread was created, in the spirit of countering the use of such trends.

So Gold was on the right track until he brought up SDQL, going right back to trends, sort of.

Also, events are not random, that's a silly notion, especially when you consider spreads and moneylines. There is a distribution of scores, margins, and results. Much of this depends on the individual sports of course.

From regressions and machine learning to monte carlo simulations, there are better things than trends, and delve into the math side of things, even MLB's applications of sabermetrics.

This is particularly true of low sample size trends and trends that really don't take into account individual point spreads, they just say "against the spread" and thus aren't considering market adjustments, especially given the sample sizes.

That's just the beginning, lol.

[KVB]

...Is this still a viable trend to unload on, or has it been exposed?

Exactly. Was there value in the past, is there value now? Has the market adjusted?

Such is the problem with trends that are "against the spread" yet never really consider the spread.

[Roscoe_Word]

This was from the financial industry instead of sportsbettin. I once listened to (audio book) The Rise and Fall of Long Term Capital.

The put together a syndicate of PHd's in chemistry, mathamatics and physics to form a hedge fund.

They came out swinging and made profits of 40-50 % for their clients for the first few years.

Then they hit the biggest losing streak in financial history. They were losing tens of millions a day for about 2 months.

The FEDs and fellow Wall Street heavy hitters had to come in and shut them down.