[str]

won and paid $3 even

Sounds like either way you would be alive into the Belmont.

That isn't as easy as you made it seem.

And I know it got a bit mixed up along the way but what the hell.

Still fun to do and real fun to accomplish.

Nice job JBEX !


Also, I saw a list of horses being considered for the Belmont and KB was on it.

Let's keep an eye on that.

[JBEX]

Sounds like either way you would be alive into the Belmont.

That isn't as easy as you made it seem.

And I know it got a bit mixed up along the way but what the hell.

Still fun to do and real fun to accomplish.

Nice job JBEX !


Also, I saw a list of horses being considered for the Belmont and KB was on it.

Let's keep an eye on that.

thanks str


obviously having something is better than nothing but would've felt great to actually capitalize on it fully..feels good when you pick well finding a best bet..very tough on good cards over a few days to come up with one even though that was my original intention


good to hear about kb and hopefully he does go..otherwise belmont will just be a regular bet for me..with todd's mo,if he's in good shape, I think we'll see him running in it

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Dumb question:

*Is it fair to say a Pletcher horse will never win the Triple Crown?

Because of the recovery cycle he puts his horse on. Nowadays, seems like only a few horses even RUN all 3.

[str]

Dumb question:

*Is it fair to say a Pletcher horse will never win the Triple Crown?

Because of the recovery cycle he puts his horse on. Nowadays, seems like only a few horses even RUN all 3.

Not dumb at all IMO Chucky.

I think it is going to take the perfect situation and horse for Todd to entertain running in all three races.

Now that I have paid more attention to Todd the last few months because of the horse I am paying close attention to, he is a trainer that seems to stick to the script in that he has pretty much mapped out what he is looking for with each horse. I totally get that.
And he will try to stick to that as long as things are working out.

You know, this game has changed sooo much in the last 40 years as far as running horses where, when and how often. I'm pretty sure I wrote about this a long ways back. Maybe search lasix/bredding/broodmare, something like that. Probably 4-6 years ago if not longer, I guess.

Bottom line, I put a lot of all this on Lasix. Kind of unfair but basically without a ton of detail, it allowed the breeding shed to become weakened with imperfection. Horses were being bred both male and female that would not have been very lucrative to breed to in years past. The bleeding was now able to be at least somewhat controlled. When steroids became widely available and in many different types of drugs produced, trainers flocked to it and pushed their limits to get their horses over to the races . It was legal at the time. But so did all sorts of cocktails that allowed horses to run well above their capacity.

Once the breeding shed became filled with that, along came the longer gaps in between racing. That allowed horses with problems to have ample time to recuperate. And while that is exactly what is necessary, you did not see many stallions that had large gapes between races. Now, that's all you see. And from that brings studs that will throw babies with those same infirmities. Mares as well.

So I am positive in my mind that those two drugs, their derivatives and a few others have diluted the breeding shed. Now, years later, they do ban lasix in many important graded races. And while that is great, it will take generations to help replenish the breeding sheds. Same with steroids. They have cracked down on those as well. To what extent, I really have not kept up with it so I don't exactly know.

But with every crackdown, comes some new drug or concoction that someone has dreamt up that allows horses to go 22/45 and restart when they turn for home. You NEVER saw that in the 70's or 80's unless the horse was super talented and able to relax. But in the 90's and beyond you saw horses that were gunned early, pushed most of the way and fresh when they turned for home.
All I had for that was "C'MON MAN"
When you see it often enough, you know it's something. And if THAT horse is bred to, what do you think that baby will end up with. The answer is most likely the same or worse infirmity that the stallion or mare had. That's how breeding works. Infirmities pass through generations just as much as the good traits. Sometimes more so.

It's a slippery slope Chucky. And by the late 90's I was done with racing against those types of competitors. The thrill was gone. It became no fun.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thank you, str. Very good info. Sounds like: instant gratification vs delayed gratification.

When I first read about Horse-betting some years ago, the Lasix (L) factor was one that jumped off the page. As if a horse could get a jolt when they went on the Lasix.

As you imply, the drugs work their way into the bloodlines. I'm blown away by all the horse deaths now. Seems like the offspring are so vulnerable. Horses (in general) are a delicate animal b/c of so much weight coming down on the smallish leg area. Seems to be even more so now.

[str]

Thank you, str. Very good info. Sounds like: instant gratification vs delayed gratification.

When I first read about Horse-betting some years ago, the Lasix (L) factor was one that jumped off the page. As if a horse could get a jolt when they went on the Lasix.

As you imply, the drugs work their way into the bloodlines. I'm blown away by all the horse deaths now. Seems like the offspring are so vulnerable. Horses (in general) are a delicate animal b/c of so much weight coming down on the smallish leg area. Seems to be even more so now.

When I first read about Horse-betting some years ago, the Lasix (L) factor was one that jumped off the page. As if a horse could get a jolt when they went on the Lasix.

In the early stages, horses were improving quite drastically with it. What that showed was how many horses that were at a disadvantage due to breathing, bleeding , etc. when it was not legal. The larger stables went all in with it but many smaller ones, and there were a lot back then, did not at first. I just did not see or hear of many horses being scoped by smaller trainers. ( Viewing the entire breathing area with a small flexible hose with a light on the end of it.)
Once you could see the mechanics of the horses breathing area, it opened up a lot of information that beforehand had to be simply guessed. Things like which bit would help the most, adding a tongue tie and showing if there was any infection in there. Knowing these things and addressing the issues moved many horses up. On paper, it looked like it was lasix. But it was more than just that.

Then came the findings that lasix could possibly mask other drugs. Many it did not, but some it did. The cheaters came out of the woodwork with that. And it took years for the testing labs to even start to catch up. That is when the lifetime 8% win trainers started hitting at 30% or more. What a joke that was. But when you start winning like that, other things help as well. Like new owners giving you horses, being able to get the best riders when you could not before. So it was a snowball effect that propelled some but again, lasix got the credit.
So you can see how while lasix helped immensely, it was the unintended consequences that came with it that screwed the game up when it came to lasix. But writers that wrote about lasix did not realize that. To them, it was simply a wonder drug. To try and tell them anything different only made them skeptical of you. So on it went for quite a while until testing finally caught up . That took waay too long. But it was about money and track owners each being their own entities with no governing body to group them together let it happen. And no way the state was going to give more to the testing labs without a ton of outcry which took years. Reason number 6,348 why all the tracks need to be run by a commissioner and bound somewhat like the NFL is. As it stands, it's dog eat dog.




I'm blown away by all the horse deaths now.

If I am not mistaken, racing deaths are actually down from years ago. (might be mistaken). But the fans, media, etc. have followed it closely and that is probably a good thing. Not all breakdowns are equal. There are retired vets, horsemen, horse women, etc. that do know the difference. And yet, nothing from racing as a group to review and look deeper into them. It is indeed tragic. And for all I have had to say , and plenty I have not yet said about Baffert, I will say this:

When he spoke after his horse broke down at the Preakness and said, "There is nothing sadder or that hurts more than to go back to the barn to an empty stall", that froze me. It took my breath away for a moment. It's very true and it was sincere. You can't say that as a trainer in the moment and not mean it. And I as well as many others felt what he said.

And yes, they are delicate running that fast on spindly legs and a 1,000 pound frame. They are bred to run and compete. Some are more fierce than others in their drive to win. It really is up to us, the ones that work with them to give them the best hope for success and health.

Someday there will be a commissioner, a ruling body, and each track will have a board that reviews things like this where Stewards just can't. I hope I live to see it.

Thanks Chucky. Great subject and as you can see, one I am probably the most passionate about, years removed from the game.

All the best my friend!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Great stuff, str. You horse-guys are so passionate about your craft. Salud, and GL.

[str]

Well, Damn.


Kingsbarns, the Louisiana Derby winner who finished 14th in the Kentucky Derby, won’t work this weekend after showing signs of colic Friday morning.
“He seems to be responding to treatment right now. He had a bellyache starting about 4 o’clock this morning so we’ve been treating that,” Pletcher said. “Hoping it’s something he’ll be able to get over without surgical intervention but it’s knocking us off schedule.”
Pletcher said Kingsbarns is not “definitively” out of the Belmont, but the timing “is less than ideal obviously,” he added.

[JBEX]

Well, Damn.


Kingsbarns, the Louisiana Derby winner who finished 14th in the Kentucky Derby, won’t work this weekend after showing signs of colic Friday morning.
“He seems to be responding to treatment right now. He had a bellyache starting about 4 o’clock this morning so we’ve been treating that,” Pletcher said. “Hoping it’s something he’ll be able to get over without surgical intervention but it’s knocking us off schedule.”
Pletcher said Kingsbarns is not “definitively” out of the Belmont, but the timing “is less than ideal obviously,” he added.

not encouraging str and hopefully he'll be ok

[JBEX]

not encouraging str and hopefully he'll be ok

want to clarify for the sake of his health and not just so he can run in the race..I've heard that can be a serious condition

[str]

want to clarify for the sake of his health and not just so he can run in the race..I've heard that can be a serious condition

I knew that's what you meant JBEX.

Yes, colic can kill a horse and that's not a stretch. It is a blockage and it needs to clear. If so, it's fine. If not, surgery is required and usually within about 24 hours. Just an awful scenario to deal with.
It's one of the scariest scenarios you have to deal with mainly because all you can do is a few things and hope it works.
If it's terrible, we will probably know by tomorrow if not later today. If the colic has passed, then he will be fine in a day or two, like nothing happened. But we are talking training a little, not working out.

[JBEX]

I knew that's what you meant JBEX.

Yes, colic can kill a horse and that's not a stretch. It is a blockage and it needs to clear. If so, it's fine. If not, surgery is required and usually within about 24 hours. Just an awful scenario to deal with.
It's one of the scariest scenarios you have to deal with mainly because all you can do is a few things and hope it works.
If it's terrible, we will probably know by tomorrow if not later today. If the colic has passed, then he will be fine in a day or two, like nothing happened. But we are talking training a little, not working out.

thanks str

hoping things are OK not only for humane reasons but also to see what he's capable of on the track..if it's not the belmont maybe the haskell or jim dandy ..we should know soon


.

[JBEX]

kb didn't require surgery and is expected to be fine BUT is out of consideration for the belmont

[JBEX]

haskell or jim dandy next target I would guess

[str]

When something like this happens to a horse and it's KB in this case, you have to stop letting the condition book guide your decisions.
I have to think Todd will do that. You go back to the basics, which is to get the horse back to training happy, eating happy, breeze easily happy, and build up a competitive workout from that. And until he checks all those boxes, you just rinse and repeat.
Hopefully that will be 3-5 weeks but it could easily take longer. His weight, coat, everything has to be good to go. Then you look for a spot to run. And hopefully something that is less stressful than a race like what the Haskell can sometimes be. ( Wishful thinking I guess.)
I guess that is old style thinking but that is what I saw that worked time and again. Todd is very aware of all of that and really good at what he does. I am sure he is going to do that. He more than anyone knows that time was pushed after KB's maiden race. And that was absolutely the right way to try and do it. But at this point, Todd will most likely take over calling the shots and not the condition book and calendar. I would think that when he comes back, he will be ready to climb the ladder again. Hopefully three or four more starts this year . But... one race at a time and baby steps for a while.

That's how I see it but who knows better than Todd? Probably no one.

[JBEX]

makes sense and as you said they probably had to change plans before he made his late debut at gulfstream .. certainly capable of running well off a short layoff

assuming things are going smoothly they do have a listed stakes for 3yo going the jim dandy distance a week before it (curlin stakes)..have to think that would have some appeal rather than what I originally said which puts him against top competition ..there's also the prep for the haskell (pegasus stakes) at mth but that's less likely as it's in 3 weeks..again I understand how the horse is doing the primary concern

[str]

I just read that Churchill Downs will shift their racing dates to Ellis Park this summer.

If I didn't know that Churchill Downs was a publicly traded company and that their number one responsibility is to their shareholders, I might think it was for the safety of the horses. But no problems have been found from the surface of the track.
Throw in the thought that Churchill Downs recently bought Ellis Park for 79 million and what pops into my mind is, Hmmm.

Meanwhile after spending millions upgrading Laurel Racecourse and doing very little to Pimlico, except painting it that lovely shade of brick red, we now hear that there is a reasonable chance that Laurel will close permanently and Pimlico will run year around as the only mile track in Maryland.
Nothing better than training over that surface at Pimlico. I can only hope that it is more suitable today than it used to be. Back when I was there, if the track got too crowded, you could just breeze your horse down Park Heights Ave. as the cushions were about the same.

I never had any idea when I was 21 years old that anything like this could ever happen. But then again, I guess I was lucky if my zipper was up if we won a race and got in the win picture.

But today, sometimes I feel like, as Bob Segar said, "I wish I didn't know now, what I didn't know then".

Things were simpler then.

I got lucky and made the right decision.

It was the 2nd best claim I ever made. The 1st? My wife in 1980.

[str]

I only had a chance to glance at the PP’s of the Belmont Stakes. I want to spend more time on it but what jumps out is the total lack of pace other than National Treasure.
I don’t think anyone can just catch him. I think they will need him to come back to the pack at least somewhat.
I’m not sure that will happen with what looks like no early pressure.

Pace typically makes the race and I don’t see any.
More later.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I only had a chance to glance at the PP’s of the Belmont Stakes. I want to spend more time on it but what jumps out is the total lack of pace other than National Treasure.
I don’t think anyone can just catch him. I think they will need him to come back to the pack at least somewhat.
I’m not sure that will happen with what looks like no early pressure.

Pace typically makes the race and I don’t see any.
More later.

maybe Tapit Shoes? Rated Early Presser 6 on the BRIS Scale. National Treasure an Early 5.

[str]

maybe Tapit Shoes? Rated Early Presser 6 on the BRIS Scale. National Treasure an Early 5.

Gotta be honest. I don't know what that stuff means. I have always looked at the horses body of work and determined my own pace scenarios. That was what you had to do way back when and I never stopped. Also, I have to be honest. I would find it hard to trust those numbers unless I knew who was assigning them and how the were assigned. I would need to know the formula they use.

Guess that's the old dog new tricks thing but it works well for me so it is what it is.

I might have a chance to look more tomorrow but will definitely look hard on Saturday. Happy to comment more about it once I put in the time.

Thanks EZ

[mrginandtonic]

Gotta be honest. I don't know what that stuff means. I have always looked at the horses body of work and determined my own pace scenarios. That was what you had to do way back when and I never stopped. Also, I have to be honest. I would find it hard to trust those numbers unless I knew who was assigning them and how the were assigned. I would need to know the formula they use.

Guess that's the old dog new tricks thing but it works well for me so it is what it is.

I might have a chance to look more tomorrow but will definitely look hard on Saturday. Happy to comment more about it once I put in the time.

Thanks EZ

Lol, that makes two of us….. don’t know what that means.

Looking at the form, one must wonder why the 5- Il Miracolo is even running? If he is not scratched, I think he will gun out and take the lead. 4-National Treasure will do the same (since it doesn’t look like he is very effective sitting behind horses. 1- Tapit Shoes will most likely sit behind these two. The rest of the horses behind them. Think after 1 mile or so, 5- Il Miracolo will fade if he is battling with 4-National Treasure. I can see the 1- Tapit Shoes get first dip at National Treasure, then some other ones will come through. I think it’s either Forte or Tapit Trice will win, these two look like the most likely win candidates imo. To get a price, gonna key the 1- Tapit Shoes (ML 20-1).

Anyways, that’s my opinion.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Gotta be honest. I don't know what that stuff means. I have always looked at the horses body of work and determined my own pace scenarios. That was what you had to do way back when and I never stopped. Also, I have to be honest. I would find it hard to trust those numbers unless I knew who was assigning them and how the were assigned. I would need to know the formula they use.

Guess that's the old dog new tricks thing but it works well for me so it is what it is.

I might have a chance to look more tomorrow but will definitely look hard on Saturday. Happy to comment more about it once I put in the time.

Thanks EZ

OK STR sounds good. thx

[Easy-Rider 66]

Lol, that makes two of us….. don’t know what that means.

Looking at the form, one must wonder why the 5- Il Miracolo is even running? If he is not scratched, I think he will gun out and take the lead. 4-National Treasure will do the same (since it doesn’t look like he is very effective sitting behind horses. 1- Tapit Shoes will most likely sit behind these two. The rest of the horses behind them. Think after 1 mile or so, 5- Il Miracolo will fade if he is battling with 4-National Treasure. I can see the 1- Tapit Shoes get first dip at National Treasure, then some other ones will come through. I think it’s either Forte or Tapit Trice will win, these two look like the most likely win candidates imo. To get a price, gonna key the 1- Tapit Shoes (ML 20-1).

Anyways, that’s my opinion.

OK Mr. G&T thx for your take. Leaning Angel of Empire and box with the #1 Tapit Shoes. still looking it over.

[Madison]

Lol, that makes two of us….. don’t know what that means.

Looking at the form, one must wonder why the 5- Il Miracolo is even running? If he is not scratched, I think he will gun out and take the lead. 4-National Treasure will do the same (since it doesn’t look like he is very effective sitting behind horses. 1- Tapit Shoes will most likely sit behind these two. The rest of the horses behind them. Think after 1 mile or so, 5- Il Miracolo will fade if he is battling with 4-National Treasure. I can see the 1- Tapit Shoes get first dip at National Treasure, then some other ones will come through. I think it’s either Forte or Tapit Trice will win, these two look like the most likely win candidates imo. To get a price, gonna key the 1- Tapit Shoes (ML 20-1).

Anyways, that’s my opinion.

Don't you see Arabian Lion controlling the early pace??

[Easy-Rider 66]

Don't you see Arabian Lion controlling the early pace??

He is not running in the BEL Stakes.

[mrginandtonic]

OK Mr. G&T thx for your take. Leaning Angel of Empire and box with the #1 Tapit Shoes. still looking it over.

I like Angel of Empire too, will most likely use him. The only knocks that I have against him is that he is a closer and with blinkers , not sure how it will affect. Why change on this important race?? Also, I can’t stand Prat.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I like Angel of Empire too, will most likely use him. The only knocks that I have against him is that he is a closer and with blinkers , not sure how it will affect. Why change on this important race?? Also, I can’t stand Prat.

Yeah I know you do not like Prat. LOL. Maybe the shades will help Angel stay a bit more close. And Cox is good with that first time blinkers move. See what happens. Good luck.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: just looked over the Timeform PP's for the race. TF predicts a fast pace on their pace projector. I tried to copy and paste it here but cannot. Anyway if you are interested in seeing it you can sign up for free with Timeform and the PP's for the race are free. Look forward to your take on the Race. Good Luck.

[str]

Hey STR: just looked over the Timeform PP's for the race. TF predicts a fast pace on their pace projector. I tried to copy and paste it here but cannot. Anyway if you are interested in seeing it you can sign up for free with Timeform and the PP's for the race are free. Look forward to your take on the Race. Good Luck.

I will be interested in looking at that. Going to spend some time this afternoon hopefully on the race.

My guess is they are taking into consideration that the one horse will be pushed early and and the five horse will want to make an early appearance. And while that can happen, doesn't that leave National Treasure 3rd by himself, clean , relaxed and in ther 3 path down the backside to just wait for the far turn to get first jump on the two up front? That is what I want to look at.

Fast pace early can mean everything or nothing. It was everything in the Derby. But it kind of depends on who is doing what and more importantly, where is the best speed in the race as far as trips go.
Most likely, this race will start at the beginning of the far turn if those two go fast early. If they compromise National Treasure, Hit Show probably has the best chance to get a jump on the rest, I think. I have to look more. Going on memory only now.

I will be back later to talk more about this.

Thanks EZ.

[JBEX]

hey str

bel

R6 #4 high oak (20-1) 3:35

hopefully they'll run


kind of interesting johnny v gets on this one with his recent poor form .. especially considering what he did in his 1st two starts as a 2yo..obviously whatever happened in the foy where he was walked off was a serious issue to keep him out of action for a year (almost to the day)

what do you think ?

[Easy-Rider 66]

I will be interested in looking at that. Going to spend some time this afternoon hopefully on the race.

My guess is they are taking into consideration that the one horse will be pushed early and and the five horse will want to make an early appearance. And while that can happen, doesn't that leave National Treasure 3rd by himself, clean , relaxed and in ther 3 path down the backside to just wait for the far turn to get first jump on the two up front? That is what I want to look at.

Fast pace early can mean everything or nothing. It was everything in the Derby. But it kind of depends on who is doing what and more importantly, where is the best speed in the race as far as trips go.
Most likely, this race will start at the beginning of the far turn if those two go fast early. If they compromise National Treasure, Hit Show probably has the best chance to get a jump on the rest, I think. I have to look more. Going on memory only now.

I will be back later to talk more about this.

Thanks EZ.

OK STR thx. TimeformUS has the 4/1/6 in the first tier then the 5/7/8 in the 2nd. Will wait to read your take. THX.

[str]

OK STR thx. TimeformUS has the 4/1/6 in the first tier then the 5/7/8 in the 2nd. Will wait to read your take. THX.

They have Forte on or very near the lead?

And Angel Of Empire 4th ish?

And the pace is fast?

Oh man, I have my work cut out for me in this one EZ. Lol.

I'll check back later.

[JBEX]

hey str

bel

R6 #4 high oak (20-1) 3:35

hopefully they'll run


kind of interesting johnny v gets on this one with his recent poor form .. especially considering what he did in his 1st two starts as a 2yo..obviously whatever happened in the foy where he was walked off was a serious issue to keep him out of action for a year (almost to the day)

what do you think ?

one negative I just noticed is the jock last out (Katie davis) has a mount on a better horse she's ridden regularly...can't see her not riding that one as his form is excellent ..still think it's meaningful jv rides mine

[str]

hey str

bel

R6 #4 high oak (20-1) 3:35

hopefully they'll run


kind of interesting johnny v gets on this one with his recent poor form .. especially considering what he did in his 1st two starts as a 2yo..obviously whatever happened in the foy where he was walked off was a serious issue to keep him out of action for a year (almost to the day)

what do you think ?

It seems as though the biggest question with this horse is, did he lose all interest and more importantly, all his confidence and trust when he fell? That does happen although not that often. But I have seen horses that never really try much again. More often than not, they do get over that but when they don't, sometimes they never do.
The change in surface got a little run out of him last time. That is something. So today is a big day to see if he continues forward or reverts backwards. Johnny V. most likely giving this one a shot for Mott. When you have a deep relationship with a jockey, they will trust you for sure. And at this point, that is what it is all about. And, he can be honest with his assessment to Mott as well, which the trainer needs at this point. Certainly had a nice upside before he fell. Damn shame.
Hope he runs well . But I have to think that depends on the horse and nobody can know for sure until he does it.
Really interesting situation JBEX. The ability was there. Can the horse get his mind right to show it? I just don't know.

[JBEX]

It seems as though the biggest question with this horse is, did he lose all interest and more importantly, all his confidence and trust when he fell? That does happen although not that often. But I have seen horses that never really try much again. More often than not, they do get over that but when they don't, sometimes they never do.
The change in surface got a little run out of him last time. That is something. So today is a big day to see if he continues forward or reverts backwards. Johnny V. most likely giving this one a shot for Mott. When you have a deep relationship with a jockey, they will trust you for sure. And at this point, that is what it is all about. And, he can be honest with his assessment to Mott as well, which the trainer needs at this point. Certainly had a nice upside before he fell. Damn shame.
Hope he runs well . But I have to think that depends on the horse and nobody can know for sure until he does it.
Really interesting situation JBEX. The ability was there. Can the horse get his mind right to show it? I just don't know.

so could be one of those ,there's potential to attract jv , and if it does go well he'll have the mount on a potentially very nice horse
..I think with his 1st 2 races that's enough to make him interesting.. the fact it was a grass race last out might explain katie davis riding..weren't really expecting a good effort..did get 6f in under 1:11 that race so couldn't be bad as a conditioner

thanks str