1. #6056
    mcaulay777
    mcaulay777's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-13-10
    Posts: 1,707
    Betpoints: 16297

    On hold now till Gulfstream Park Championship Meet that does not start now till Dec 26

  2. #6057
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,400
    Betpoints: 9464

    a hypothetical involving army mule running against flightline when he ran the 113 figure in the carter hcp .. AM sat on the rail close to the pace ..made the explosive move on the turn entering the stretch ,opened up quite a bit on the field by midstretch and winning by about 8 (without looking).. FL is one of the horses just to the outside of him on the turn and he responds with a quick turn of foot and heads after him..obviously i'm losing but do you think AM would improve his figure chasing FL to the wire ..it just seemed like nobody was going to beat him that day and if they did they were going to earn it ..do you think it'd be a battle to the wire or even the most gritty competitors when they meet an all time great might surrender by the 1/16 pole ??


    probably going to take some heat for bringing AM into this lol but i thought the trip he had along with the distance 7f made it a good example race ..if the carter was a 6f sprint wouldn't use it


    here's my guess as to what you might say to make it a little more interesting..FL wouldn't be in that position on the turn ..he would have been ridden more aggressively and maybe would have 3-5 lengths on that field by the top of the stretch..that would've squelched what AM did
    ..AM would have had to work a lot harder to be in that position with FL in the race and that move wouldn't have been as explosive or maybe wouldn't have happened at all

  3. #6058
    str
    Nothing's easy
    str's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-12-09
    Posts: 9,985
    Betpoints: 68521

    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    a hypothetical involving army mule running against flightline when he ran the 113 figure in the carter hcp .. AM sat on the rail close to the pace ..made the explosive move on the turn entering the stretch ,opened up quite a bit on the field by midstretch and winning by about 8 (without looking).. FL is one of the horses just to the outside of him on the turn and he responds with a quick turn of foot and heads after him..obviously i'm losing but do you think AM would improve his figure chasing FL to the wire ..it just seemed like nobody was going to beat him that day and if they did they were going to earn it ..do you think it'd be a battle to the wire or even the most gritty competitors when they meet an all time great might surrender by the 1/16 pole ??

    probably going to take some heat for bringing AM into this lol but i thought the trip he had along with the distance 7f made it a good example race ..if the carter was a 6f sprint wouldn't use it


    here's my guess as to what you might say to make it a little more interesting..FL wouldn't be in that position on the turn ..he would have been ridden more aggressively and maybe would have 3-5 lengths on that field by the top of the stretch..that would've squelched what AM did
    ..AM would have had to work a lot harder to be in that position with FL in the race and that move wouldn't have been as explosive or maybe wouldn't have happened at all
    Q. a hypothetical involving army mule running against flightline when he ran the 113 figure in the carter hcp .. AM sat on the rail close to the pace ..made the explosive move on the turn entering the stretch ,opened up quite a bit on the field by mid stretch and winning by about 8 (without looking).. FL is one of the horses just to the outside of him on the turn and he responds with a quick turn of foot and heads after him..obviously i'm losing but do you think AM would improve his figure chasing FL to the wire

    A. In all probability Yes his figure would improve. The only way he does not run faster is if he throws his head up and stops. Having watched his offspring, I can't begin to imagine he would have ever done that. His babies are pure fighters. He probably was as well. He was just so good he didn't have to show us.


    Q. it just seemed like nobody was going to beat him that day and if they did they were going to earn it ..do you think it'd be a battle to the wire or even the most gritty competitors when they meet an all time great might surrender by the 1/16 pole ??


    A. My guess here is that the rider on Army Mule would have started to gear it down after Flightline blew by him. I mean, what's the point right? I doubt Army Mule would have stopped digging in on his own at all.
    As a side note, I used to refer to those type of tryers that never quit as "blood and guts" horses. It was just something I called them usually when I was talking to myself. Lol.

    Q. probably going to take some heat for bringing AM into this lol but i thought the trip he had along with the distance 7f made it a good example race ..if the carter was a 6f sprint wouldn't use it


    A. I have no problem with it at all. Both are undefeated.


    Q. here's my guess as to what you might say to make it a little more interesting..FL wouldn't be in that position on the turn ..he would have been ridden more aggressively and maybe would have 3-5 lengths on that field by the top of the stretch..that would've squelched what AM did
    ..AM would have had to work a lot harder to be in that position with FL in the race and that move wouldn't have been as explosive or maybe wouldn't have happened at all.


    A. What I saw of Flightline was that the rider was always trying to keep him away from close confrontation with other horses. My assumption was he would have gotten rank and wanted to fight by burning energy too fast. What a great problem to have. Flightline accelerates on his own. It's incredible to watch. BTW, Life Is Good ran a crazy first half of the race. Kudos to him for that. Flightline chased fairly close and all the rider was doing was trying to keep him calm. Absolutely incredible !

    So here is my take on Flightline.:

    It is hard for me to put into words just how athletic he was (is). What I mean is that whole field was nothing but athletic really nice horses. And he stood out like a sore thumb.

    To try to visualize for handicappers, when I was in my early 20's and before I got married, a couple of buddies and I has season tickets to the Wash. Bullets. We went to every home game. It was there where I actually saw something that I then took to the track with me as a new, very young trainer.
    We used to see every team in the league in the mid-late 70's. Maravich, Erving, Bird, Magic, Karreem, Gervin. ALL of them!
    We sat half way between mid court and the top of the key about 7-8 rows up. Perfect seats. But one game I saw a player steal a ball and take it the length of the court for a fast break. As he went past us on that fast break, it looked like his feet were not even landing on the floor. He was THAT athletic. And he was playing other incredibly athletic players. It wasn't like it was me out there thinking maybe I was. Lol.

    It was THAT moment that I realized what I had just seen that helped me identify an overly athletic horse from a more typically athletic horse. The player was Marques Johnson.

    To this day, it stands out in my mind as an incredible thing that I was able to see and see in that light so as to see the difference. I mean, we have all seen athletic people shine. But THAT, was an incredible moment. Kind of like when Bo Jackson did some of the stuff he used to do.

    I tell that story because when I see Flightline I see the same thing. Marques Johnson running on the same floor with other great athletes. It's just that Flightline is so incredibly smooth it's scary.
    Having seen other GREAT horses, I have to admit, in the early 70's I just was not yet educated enough to see that in , for instance Secretariat. I saw him. But all I saw was a great, fast horse. I did not have an eye for that yet.

    ( And I will always regret not reaching in and petting Secretariat the night before the Preakness while he was in his stall. I had my chance. His groom said go ahead and pet him and I didn't. Dammit!)

    So that's the thing with Flightline. Too me, he is an athlete far beyond the typical athlete. It's not even close. I take nothing away from any of them but when I see him move, switch leads, run, walk, heck anything, he does it so silky smooth it's just incredible.

    It is for that reason that I speak of him in the same breath as the greats. I know they ran more. But times are different today. Horses run less. Pitchers pitch less but that does not make them not as good as whoever back in the day.

    He is , in my mind , one of the best I have seen. He's great.

    Great question JBEX. Very cool to think of that kind of matchup.

    Thanks.

  4. #6059
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,400
    Betpoints: 9464

    no problem str and appreciate the feedback


    cool to know that you feel if he was perservered with AM might add a couple of lengths to that performance..3 would be pushing a 120 beyer and 5 would make it a sub 1:20 7f..something attainable for FL but probably beyond AM's best shot

    nice seats at the bullets game.. guess you couldn't miss wes unseld sitting that close lol..what a tough player he was ..don't mess with wes back in those times

    can see how seeing an exceptional pro athlete can make you ask the question if there are some equine equivalents ..FL certainly fits the bill for that..i bet you'd agree a player like gale sayers would be a good nfl equivalent to FL's abilities including that he had an abbreviated career..chose him because i loved the old "nfl film's" footage

    they just announced today that his initial fee will be $200k and Life is Good's will be $100k..you'd think a stallion who starts out at $100k would have won the Classic..Another indicator of how good FL actually is

  5. #6060
    str
    Nothing's easy
    str's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-12-09
    Posts: 9,985
    Betpoints: 68521

    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    no problem str and appreciate the feedback


    cool to know that you feel if he was perservered with AM might add a couple of lengths to that performance..3 would be pushing a 120 beyer and 5 would make it a sub 1:20 7f..something attainable for FL but probably beyond AM's best shot

    nice seats at the bullets game.. guess you couldn't miss wes unseld sitting that close lol..what a tough player he was ..don't mess with wes back in those times

    can see how seeing an exceptional pro athlete can make you ask the question if there are some equine equivalents ..FL certainly fits the bill for that..i bet you'd agree a player like gale sayers would be a good nfl equivalent to FL's abilities including that he had an abbreviated career..chose him because i loved the old "nfl film's" footage

    they just announced today that his initial fee will be $200k and Life is Good's will be $100k..you'd think a stallion who starts out at $100k would have won the Classic..Another indicator of how good FL actually is
    Q. can see how seeing an exceptional pro athlete can make you ask the question if there are some equine equivalents ..FL certainly fits the bill for that..i bet you'd agree a player like gale sayers would be a good nfl equivalent to FL's abilities including that he had an abbreviated career..chose him because i loved the old "nfl film's" footage

    A. You know JBEX, it was just one of those things that you are not looking for, have seen it a million times, and then, just like that, you see it differently. From that point on you see it but it is very hard to describe. You just see it. THAT is what happened at the game that evening.
    Maybe it was the joint in the car before we went in. I mean, it was the 70's. Lol.

    Whatever it was, It opened a whole new view especially for horses. And yes, I'm sure if I ever saw Sayers play after I realized what I had seen, he most likely would haver been just that. Saw him on TV. Man was he great.

    I saw that stud fee announcement for both horses. 100k for Life is Good seems high but who knows. I'm not greedy though, I would have taken a barn full of Army Mules for 12,500 apiece any day .

  6. #6061
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,400
    Betpoints: 9464

    Quote Originally Posted by str View Post
    Q. can see how seeing an exceptional pro athlete can make you ask the question if there are some equine equivalents ..FL certainly fits the bill for that..i bet you'd agree a player like gale sayers would be a good nfl equivalent to FL's abilities including that he had an abbreviated career..chose him because i loved the old "nfl film's" footage

    A. You know JBEX, it was just one of those things that you are not looking for, have seen it a million times, and then, just like that, you see it differently. From that point on you see it but it is very hard to describe. You just see it. THAT is what happened at the game that evening.
    Maybe it was the joint in the car before we went in. I mean, it was the 70's. Lol.

    Whatever it was, It opened a whole new view especially for horses. And yes, I'm sure if I ever saw Sayers play after I realized what I had seen, he most likely would haver been just that. Saw him on TV. Man was he great.

    I saw that stud fee announcement for both horses. 100k for Life is Good seems high but who knows. I'm not greedy though, I would have taken a barn full of Army Mules for 12,500 apiece any day .


    naah..if it were that they all would've looked like were walking (running) on air lol


    I thought LIG was a little high also but admittedly didn't look at his whole career after I read it..easy to know what FL's was..I thought somewhere between the group of $150k+ ers (mo 160,curlin 175 and tapit 185) and the biggie into mischief $250k made sense


    yeah a lot AM's for 1 LIG..probably about the same ratio of the former getting mares as good as the latter..just the way it goes

  7. #6062
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    anyone use BetMix?

  8. #6063
    str
    Nothing's easy
    str's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-12-09
    Posts: 9,985
    Betpoints: 68521

    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    anyone use BetMix?
    I never would.

    Why?

    Because all it is doing is sorting what you tell it to sort for importance.

    It is only as smart as the person putting info into it.

    Your brain is a much better computer than that thing.

    And briefly reading the different things you can put in, several at least having nothing to do with picking a winner that day.

    It sounds like a total waste of money too me.

    Browse through this thread. A lot of very insightful discussion from many different handicappers. And... it's free !

    11 + years of horses in here.

    Good luck!
    Last edited by str; 11-13-22 at 07:31 AM.

  9. #6064
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    STR what is your number 1 source say your betting AQU today

  10. #6065
    str
    Nothing's easy
    str's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-12-09
    Posts: 9,985
    Betpoints: 68521

    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    STR what is your number 1 source say your betting AQU today
    David Aragona and Andy Sterling. Both play for value and know what to look for.

    They try and beat the favorites but don't force plays. Name of the game JJ.

  11. #6066
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    Sterling?????????????????????????

    That guy a clown you think he is sharp?

  12. #6067
    pick4player
    pick4player's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-04-12
    Posts: 491
    Betpoints: 467

    Mountaineer race 4 horse #1

  13. #6068
    Easy-Rider 66
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 33,182
    Betpoints: 3277

    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Sterling?????????????????????????

    That guy a clown you think he is sharp?
    I like Serling Gold. Not bad capper. Yeah he is a front man for NYRA and DRF. He's a businessman like you.

  14. #6069
    str
    Nothing's easy
    str's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-12-09
    Posts: 9,985
    Betpoints: 68521

    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Sterling?????????????????????????

    That guy a clown you think he is sharp?
    No. I don't think he is sharp, which in my mind is someone that sees the whole picture or at least attempts to which would classify them as working in the right direction towards being sharp. I know he is sharp. What he says makes perfect sense almost every time. He looks for the right things. He understands .

    Gotta remember JJ. We are talking about a sport that was my profession for 25 years. And if anyone knows me at all, when I focus on something, I do my best to put everything I have into it. More than I should probably. This thread is evidence of that. 11 years and counting.

    If you take the time to read this entire thread I guarantee you that you end it knowing waaay more than when you started it.

    No more walking home from the track for you JJ.

    And at Penn. Nat., that driveway is a bitch isn't it. Lol.

    All the best JJ.

  15. #6070
    Easy-Rider 66
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 33,182
    Betpoints: 3277

    Quote Originally Posted by str View Post
    No. I don't think he is sharp, which in my mind is someone that sees the whole picture or at least attempts to which would classify them as working in the right direction towards being sharp. I know he is sharp. What he says makes perfect sense almost every time. He looks for the right things. He understands .

    Gotta remember JJ. We are talking about a sport that was my profession for 25 years. And if anyone knows me at all, when I focus on something, I do my best to put everything I have into it. More than I should probably. This thread is evidence of that. 11 years and counting.

    If you take the time to read this entire thread I guarantee you that you end it knowing waaay more than when you started it.

    No more walking home from the track for you JJ.

    And at Penn. Nat., that driveway is a bitch isn't it. Lol.

    All the best JJ.

  16. #6071
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,400
    Betpoints: 9464

    hey str


    AM has one in R4 at IND ..5th career start ,1st 3 here and just missed at MVR last start ..blinkers were added and ran a much better figure than she'd ever run..looks like a gamer based on the running line..no betting value off her last race ..just mentioning there's one running
    Last edited by JBEX; 11-15-22 at 09:45 AM.

  17. #6072
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,400
    Betpoints: 9464

    thought you'd find R8 at same track interesting..favorites (4,3)
    look tough but like to expand on

    #3 no drama momma (7-2)


    she breaks her maiden first out vs statebreds almost exactly a year ago as a 2yo..looks like a slow break then right up into the pace and wires them holding on by a head at the wire..next 2 starts the unenviable task of going up against open company at OP.. ran 4th and did nothing in her last race there both at big odds..
    it was at the end of feb so maybe they decided to wait till
    the fall to try her again as she's still a young horse ..based on this years schedule there would have been about 7 weeks left at the IND meet after the last try at OP..It's all speculation

    hot trainer and jockey and gets to go a half furlong shorter which wouldn't have hurt her cause last year..former also has excellent #s including factoring his roi's..long string of steady works on the CD training track


    as always a write-up if you don't get to it

  18. #6073
    str
    Nothing's easy
    str's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-12-09
    Posts: 9,985
    Betpoints: 68521

    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    hey str


    AM has one in R4 at IND ..5th career start ,1st 3 here and just missed at MVR last start ..blinkers were added and ran a much better figure than she'd ever run..looks like a gamer based on the running line..no betting value off her last race ..just mentioning there's one running
    Just saw her form.,. she ran great last out with Blks. ON. Have to wonder if she made the lead and kind of lost interest a bit because she could not see. No idea what kind of blinker cups they were but you can bet that if that was the case, they will peal them back or open them up enough so that wont be an issue this time. Just a guess.
    Those two beat the field 9 lengths. Nice race.

  19. #6074
    str
    Nothing's easy
    str's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-12-09
    Posts: 9,985
    Betpoints: 68521

    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    thought you'd find R8 at same track interesting..favorites (4,3)
    look tough but like to expand on

    #3 no drama momma (7-2)


    she breaks her maiden first out vs statebreds almost exactly a year ago as a 2yo..looks like a slow break then right up into the pace and wires them holding on by a head at the wire..next 2 starts the unenviable task of going up against open company at OP.. ran 4th and did nothing in her last race there both at big odds..
    it was at the end of feb so maybe they decided to wait till
    the fall to try her again as she's still a young horse ..based on this years schedule there would have been about 7 weeks left at the IND meet after the last try at OP..It's all speculation

    hot trainer and jockey and gets to go a half furlong shorter which wouldn't have hurt her cause last year..former also has excellent #s including factoring his roi's..long string of steady works on the CD training track


    as always a write-up if you don't get to it
    Looks like she might have hurt herself in April as the works stop there. (90 days off, no big deal, about 90 more days for this return sounds about right. Work schedule seems ok enough to say that she should be ok to run in a 5 1/2 race.

    That said, she runs well off the bench as her 1st lifetime start was fine.

    She seems logical enough to me. Man, taking her to OP was ambitious off that 1st start wasn't it? Geez, like climbing a mountain. At least she gets to run against lighter in here and when she did that before she won. Probably worth a swing IMO JBEX.
    Good luck on both if you play !

  20. #6075
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,400
    Betpoints: 9464

    Quote Originally Posted by str View Post
    Just saw her form.,. she ran great last out with Blks. ON. Have to wonder if she made the lead and kind of lost interest a bit because she could not see. No idea what kind of blinker cups they were but you can bet that if that was the case, they will peal them back or open them up enough so that wont be an issue this time. Just a guess.
    Those two beat the field 9 lengths. Nice race.
    possibly with the blinkers but with the figure and the distance to 3rd it might have just been a very solid horse who beat her..according to pars the race was about 5 lengths fast ..how about a 1:14 flat generating such a good figure ..track must have been a bog that day

  21. #6076
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,400
    Betpoints: 9464

    Quote Originally Posted by str View Post
    Looks like she might have hurt herself in April as the works stop there. (90 days off, no big deal, about 90 more days for this return sounds about right. Work schedule seems ok enough to say that she should be ok to run in a 5 1/2 race.

    That said, she runs well off the bench as her 1st lifetime start was fine.

    She seems logical enough to me. Man, taking her to OP was ambitious off that 1st start wasn't it? Geez, like climbing a mountain. At least she gets to run against lighter in here and when she did that before she won. Probably worth a swing IMO JBEX.
    Good luck on both if you play !
    I agree injury makes more sense..would think if schedule was the same they would've given her another shot before the end of the meet..yeah open company at oaklawn is crazy..probably a positive sign about the horse that he even attempted it..as you've mentioned having run well fresh before another thing going for her


    thanks for the feedback on both str

  22. #6077
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,400
    Betpoints: 9464

    Quote Originally Posted by str View Post
    Just saw her form.,. she ran great last out with Blks. ON. Have to wonder if she made the lead and kind of lost interest a bit because she could not see. No idea what kind of blinker cups they were but you can bet that if that was the case, they will peal them back or open them up enough so that wont be an issue this time. Just a guess.
    Those two beat the field 9 lengths. Nice race.
    nothing

    I have a hunch the combo of..

    if figure (high) in last was right and the way that race was run might have taken something out of her

    that figure was much higher than she'd run in her 3 prior starts .. understand it was first blinkers


    3rd race in 22 days and 4th in 40 days




    there was a ship involved (336 miles)
    might've been a little much for her




    other (drama momma) was scratched

  23. #6078
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,400
    Betpoints: 9464

    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    nothing

    I have a hunch the combo of..

    if figure (high) in last was right and the way that race was run might have taken something out of her

    that figure was much higher than she'd run in her 3 prior starts .. understand it was first blinkers


    3rd race in 22 days and 4th in 40 days




    there was a ship involved (336 miles)
    might've been a little much for her




    other (drama momma) was scratched
    if it happens might be a good one to follow off a 45+ (or thereabouts) day freshening

  24. #6079
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,400
    Betpoints: 9464

    hey str


    have something a little interesting in a 2yo msw at fg tomorrow (opening day) ..no its not AM lol..I'll write it up tomorrow morning before 9am..nothing fancy but too tired to get started tonight

  25. #6080
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,400
    Betpoints: 9464

    got a 2nd wind


    it's R5 and it's a statebred msw..
    first thing that caught my eye the pedigree of #1michelles lil star (5-1)..homebred speightstown out of a stakes winning uncle mo mare is ridiculous bloodlines for a louisiana bred..not lighting it up in the morning (especially the 53¹ last work lol) ..maybe slow or she's just not being asked for much..like to see what you think..understand it's always a bit of guess work ..one other thing is the jockey is awful in sprints factoring the roi

    but I'm more interested in another fts #5 she's a lucky rebel (12-1)..while not by a sire as good as the other he's definitely well above avg for a statebred race here..the dam was a really good runner and producer as a broodmare..trainer has excellent numbers with maidens and looks towards the end of the worktab started picking it up a bit


    couple of interesting things about the dam..

    she's by two punch which you don't see much (would be 40 next year has a lot to do with it) .. as you know was a very solid md sire when he was active and all about speed

    the dam was trained by tony dutrow for 3 of her 1st 4 starts
    and broke her maiden by 6+ in her 2nd start at laurel (mario pino aboard) ..was the last day of 2003 and of her being a 2yo


    i think this horse will be half her ml ..any thoughts on either of them welcomed

  26. #6081
    Foosball Champ
    Foosball Champ's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-19-10
    Posts: 974
    Betpoints: 10462

    like the works on the #5 she's a lucky rebel. although i do like the 10 and 1 a little better. my bets will be ex 1,5,10 with 1,5,6,10

  27. #6082
    str
    Nothing's easy
    str's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-12-09
    Posts: 9,985
    Betpoints: 68521

    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    if it happens might be a good one to follow off a 45+ (or thereabouts) day freshening
    Yes. It will indeed.

    Hope you follow this one.

    Let me know if you do.

  28. #6083
    str
    Nothing's easy
    str's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-12-09
    Posts: 9,985
    Betpoints: 68521

    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    got a 2nd wind


    it's R5 and it's a statebred msw..
    first thing that caught my eye the pedigree of #1michelles lil star (5-1)..homebred speightstown out of a stakes winning uncle mo mare is ridiculous bloodlines for a louisiana bred..not lighting it up in the morning (especially the 53¹ last work lol) ..maybe slow or she's just not being asked for much..like to see what you think..understand it's always a bit of guess work ..one other thing is the jockey is awful in sprints factoring the roi

    but I'm more interested in another fts #5 she's a lucky rebel (12-1)..while not by a sire as good as the other he's definitely well above avg for a statebred race here..the dam was a really good runner and producer as a broodmare..trainer has excellent numbers with maidens and looks towards the end of the worktab started picking it up a bit


    couple of interesting things about the dam..

    she's by two punch which you don't see much (would be 40 next year has a lot to do with it) .. as you know was a very solid md sire when he was active and all about speed

    the dam was trained by tony dutrow for 3 of her 1st 4 starts
    and broke her maiden by 6+ in her 2nd start at laurel (mario pino aboard) ..was the last day of 2003 and of her being a 2yo


    i think this horse will be half her ml ..any thoughts on either of them welcomed
    The #1 horse- Really solid blood for a La. bred for sure. # 1 but the 12 post. Says they rarely win that far out but the old " last baby in, 1st baby out" theory might negate that.

    I think the only work you can consider is the gate work at the FG 2 weeks ago. Seems the other place is very slow and that last work could have been 15, 15 12 and 11. We just don't know. So, not much you can do with those without knowing more. The gate work time is legit in that the horse broke and was almost certainly in company. I think you have to lean on that.

    The rider could be a clue. That well bred and a runner and I am shopping for a name rider. That's just me though. The choice seems a bit odd.

    Also, in an entry. Interesting to see if they run from the 12 post if indeed it's all that bad. Not sure why it would be in sprints.

    The 5 is out of a two Punch mare. Speed and solid almost every time you see that. My man Tony trained the dam. That's pretty cool. Wins with Mario 2nd start. No surprise there right? And if she showed speed, it was natural. Mario never presses a baby to run early unless the post dictates that. He is very patient early as a rule.
    I'm sure she showed solid natural ability as a baby.
    The work pattern is perfect in that the filly does have some ability and looks primed to run well first out. That doesn't always work out but the fact that she checks a lot of boxes from the training side is very much a positive in my book.

    Everyone will see the well bred baby and there are questions there. I don't think there are many questions with the 5 horse.
    I would favor that selection although the 1 horse can certainly run well. And while both are on Lasix 1st time out, real glad to see that with the 5 horse.
    Two punch horses need lasix. Hate to see the horse have to run poorly or choke up in order to get it. Honestly, probably worked with it as well. Again, I don't recall seeing a Two Punch that did not improve drastically with it.

    Nice write up on both. You are seeing necessary info to make an educated decision.

    Good luck to you and Foosball Champ if you play.

  29. #6084
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,400
    Betpoints: 9464

    thanks str

    it's funny but I missed the fact that #1 is part of an entry..think I saw that pedigree ,realized she was in a statebred race and just blanked out on that..missing that one being part of an entry is pretty bad but on the other hand makes my decision of the other much easier..won't even take a flyer on him as I feel in this situation want to be just on one horse

    the dam did wire a big field (12 horses)..the info on mario pino is really pertinent to how good a performance the dam's was in her maiden breaker..also that two punch's need lasix good to know as well as you like the work pattern..


    absolutely a lot of the boxes can be checked and then runs a complete dud..have seen a lot of those for a while now lol..let's hope for better,npi,here

  30. #6085
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,400
    Betpoints: 9464

    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    thanks str

    it's funny but I missed the fact that #1 is part of an entry..think I saw that pedigree ,realized she was in a statebred race and just blanked out on that..missing that one being part of an entry is pretty bad but on the other hand makes my decision of the other much easier..won't even take a flyer on him as I feel in this situation want to be just on one horse

    the dam did wire a big field (12 horses)..the info on mario pino is really pertinent to how good a performance the dam's was in her maiden breaker..also that two punch's need lasix good to know as well as you like the work pattern..


    absolutely a lot of the boxes can be checked and then runs a complete dud..have seen a lot of those for a while now lol..let's hope for better,npi,here
    fairgrounds has a 4pm start..post time for R5 is 6pm

  31. #6086
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,400
    Betpoints: 9464

    hey str

    in aqu R1 tony dutrow has a 2nd time starter (2yo) by galileo who cost a bunch.. ran 2nd first time outat balloon odds 28-1..interesting there going on dirt here but I'm guessing lack of available turf races to run in might have something to do with it.. just making you aware.. no value to be had off debut race

  32. #6087
    str
    Nothing's easy
    str's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-12-09
    Posts: 9,985
    Betpoints: 68521

    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    hey str

    in aqu R1 tony dutrow has a 2nd time starter (2yo) by galileo who cost a bunch.. ran 2nd first time outat balloon odds 28-1..interesting there going on dirt here but I'm guessing lack of available turf races to run in might have something to do with it.. just making you aware.. no value to be had off debut race
    Thanks for the heads up JBEX.

    Yes, probably running to see if the dirt works out as well as keeping fitness until January if they run her down south.

  33. #6088
    str
    Nothing's easy
    str's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-12-09
    Posts: 9,985
    Betpoints: 68521

    Thought I would share this for anyone interested.



    IMO, the greatest I ever saw.

    I credit her with convincing myself I wanted to be a trainer.

    That day was July 27, 1974.



    https://pastthewire.com/all-1s-ruffian-the-real-story/

  34. #6089
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,400
    Betpoints: 9464

    Quote Originally Posted by str View Post
    Thought I would share this for anyone interested.



    IMO, the greatest I ever saw.

    I credit her with convincing myself I wanted to be a trainer.

    That day was July 27, 1974.



    https://pastthewire.com/all-1s-ruffian-the-real-story/
    I am gradually (everything with reading is gradually for me lol) going through it ..great read!

  35. #6090
    str
    Nothing's easy
    str's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-12-09
    Posts: 9,985
    Betpoints: 68521

    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    I am gradually (everything with reading is gradually for me lol) going through it ..great read!
    The absolute "horseman" within the story by all the names mentioned filters through like I have never read before.

    I can instantly tell it is written and quoted by lifelong backstretch people.

    For me, it really brings me right there in those moments.

    And I will say that I could not stop reading it until it got to the part at the hospital. It took three tries to get through that portion.

    I'll never forget that day. I can still feel it and smell it.

    Seems crazy I guess.

First ... 171172173174175176177 ... Last
Top