Originally Posted by
ChuckyTheGoat
How to quantify your edge without numbers?
Cool, I think you should remove this idea from your list. It's a Numbers game. If somebody tells you they can beat the game with rationalization, we want to book that person.
I'm saying that you need to develop an unbiased method of projecting the final for today's game. It's best if u do it BLINDLY b4 u see the posted #. Then compare YOUR projection vs posted # over time. If you're to the +, you're good.
Also, winning bettors are constantly putting +EV tickets in their pocket. BTCL (Beat The Closing Line) Value is correlated to the winning bettor. Look at the winner's ticket stack as games are kicking off. Invariably, he will have a lot of tickets that look like:
+8.5, when closing line was +7
+1.5, when closing line was -1.5, etc