1. #1
    Waterstpub87
    Life-Style Arbitrage
    Waterstpub87's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 3,704
    Betpoints: 229

    Optimal Bonus Play for US based books

    Looking at a US based site. Deal is, First bet is refunded with Free play if loss, max of 1000.

    Optimal play would be to treat both sides as a free play:

    Assuming you can play both legs at 200, hedging at -220.

    If you win US based, lose at offshore:

    US based account is now 3000, losing 1375 off shore, for a gain of 625

    If you lose at US based (with gain of 625) already accounted for:

    Second leg is the same

    Win at US

    Free play bet nets you 2000 at US, losing 1375 off shore (625) for a total of 1250 gained, with 1,000 lost for a net of 250.

    Lose at US: Gain 625 offshore, for a net of 250 all around.

    You are better of winning the Freeplay bet at the US sports book the first time.

    So on this, you would expected to get roughly a 37.2 or so cash bonus.


    Is there a more optimal way to do this? Take smaller odds on the First US bet?

  2. #2
    Barrakuda
    Barrakuda's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-28-18
    Posts: 694
    Betpoints: 6475

    Unless a couple hundred dollars is life changing, take a huge underdog and leave it unhedged.

  3. #3
    Waterstpub87
    Life-Style Arbitrage
    Waterstpub87's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 3,704
    Betpoints: 229

    Considering that there are roughly 10 sites, ranging from 500 to 5000, optimal play of these can yield 3,000 - 4,000 dollars. Worth it for a few hours of effort.

  4. #4
    sjm5122
    sjm5122's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-22-08
    Posts: 4,064

    You want high odds/low hold on both ends. You can get a return of ~50% of the Risk Free Value with some line shopping effort.
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 09/16/2021


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