1. 03-05-10 06:51 AM #1
    Cheese1976
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    ? about evaluating line movement on baseball totals

    I'm creating an MLB tracking table in Excel.

    When analyzing line movement on a total, is it important to also track the moneyline attached to the total or should I just be concerned with the runs themselves? I'm not too lazy to add the extra column, I just don't know how I could get a simple result for line movement with two numbers for the same thing because they will at times be contradicting.

    I have many other variables for hadicapping these lines so, my inclination is to ignore the attached money movement as I think it might be too finite of a concern.

    Thoughts and suggestions would be greatly appreciated!
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  2. 03-05-10 07:20 AM #2
    patswin
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    I'd just stick with the lines and don't pay attention to the vig associated with it. You want to track stuff that opens 8 and closes 8.5 or 7.5, etc.....
    Doesn't really matter if the line is -130 or -120
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  3. 03-05-10 07:39 AM #3
    Cheese1976
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    Quote Originally Posted by patswin View Post
    I'd just stick with the lines and don't pay attention to the vig associated with it. You want to track stuff that opens 8 and closes 8.5 or 7.5, etc..... Doesn't really matter if the line is -130 or -120
    I gotta say that's EXACTLY what I wanted to hear. Sometimes I get so lost in these spreadsheets that I don't know which way is up sometimes. Thank you
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  4. 03-05-10 09:06 AM #4
    durito
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    Quote Originally Posted by patswin View Post
    I'd just stick with the lines and don't pay attention to the vig associated with it. You want to track stuff that opens 8 and closes 8.5 or 7.5, etc.....
    Doesn't really matter if the line is -130 or -120
    Quote Originally Posted by Cheese1976 View Post

    I gotta say that's EXACTLY what I wanted to hear. Sometimes I get so lost in these spreadsheets that I don't know which way is up sometimes. Thank you
    What exactly are you trying to do? Assuming it's make money, yes in fact the payout odds are very important.

    Let's say it opens 8 -110/-110 and closes 7.5 o-130/+110 Tracking with no payout odds that looks like a big move, but it's nearly the same thing.
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  5. 03-05-10 09:11 AM #5
    mdemps9190
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    I'm not sure I agree with this. I'm not too familiar with baseball line movement, but sometimes sites like pinny will set something at -102 because they want action on it, so that might be something to consider in the long run.
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  6. 03-05-10 10:01 AM #6
    MonkeyF0cker
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    Holy crap. Are you people serious?
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  7. 03-05-10 10:05 AM #7
    ForgetWallStreet
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    Quote Originally Posted by patswin View Post
    I'd just stick with the lines and don't pay attention to the vig associated with it. You want to track stuff that opens 8 and closes 8.5 or 7.5, etc.....
    Doesn't really matter if the line is -130 or -120
    I'd stick to ignoring posts from this guy completely.
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  8. 03-05-10 10:23 AM #8
    Peeig
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForgetWallStreet View Post
    I'd stick to ignoring posts from this guy completely.
    That sounds like very good advice
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  9. 03-05-10 02:56 PM #9
    20Four7
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    Quote Originally Posted by MonkeyF0cker View Post
    Holy crap. Are you people serious?
    Gotta love Monkey, he hits right to the point. does it matter if the line is 8 +110 or it is 8 -150? of course not your getting 8. Geezes..........
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  10. 03-05-10 06:44 PM #10
    Justin7
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    You need the moneylines.
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  11. 03-05-10 06:58 PM #11
    mintybetmachine
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    Now I get why even decent touts have sportsbook ads on their pages.
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  12. 03-05-10 07:01 PM #12
    skrtelfan
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    Probably a good rule of thumb to ignore anything posted to the think tank by people with boobie avatars. That stuff's more the domain of Player's Talk or the RX.
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  13. 03-05-10 07:09 PM #13
    Cheese1976
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    Quote Originally Posted by skrtelfan View Post
    Probably a good rule of thumb to ignore anything posted to the think tank by people with boobie avatars. That stuff's more the domain of Player's Talk or the RX.
    If I take both into consideration - my problem now is trying to figure out the relativity of a movement in the moneyline to a movement of half a run. I've never really seen anything higher than -1.50 on a total before, would it be safe to assume that $0.50 equates to half a run?
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  14. 03-05-10 07:31 PM #14
    MrX
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    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/Betting+Tool...alculator.aspx
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  15. 03-05-10 07:49 PM #15
    Cheese1976
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrX View Post
    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/Betting+Tool...alculator.aspx
    thanks for this! looks like .40 equals half a run depending whether it's coming on/off an even # - very useful, thanks
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  16. 03-05-10 08:31 PM #16
    skrtelfan
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    You doubled those numbers, it's closer to .20 on average, higher for lower totals and odd numbers. .40 would be closer to a full run.
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  17. 03-05-10 08:38 PM #17
    Cheese1976
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    Quote Originally Posted by skrtelfan View Post
    You doubled those numbers, it's closer to .20 on average, higher for lower totals and odd numbers. .40 would be closer to a full run.
    thank you - my brain's not working today
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  18. 03-08-10 10:03 PM #18
    curinator
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    Quote Originally Posted by MonkeyF0cker View Post
    Holy crap. Are you people serious?
    IM DED SURIOUS ! I win 55% of my baseball totals, you could never beat it.
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