[Bsims]

I have a future bet on Tampa Bay to win the Super Bowl at 10-1, now effectively a simple +EV bet on today’s game. That raises the perrenial question of hedging the bet and betting some on Kansas City. The standard answer that many gamblers will give you is that if you felt it was a good bet (+EV) then, you would not hedge it. However, several things have changed since then. First and most significantly, Tampa Bay hasn’t lost so the bet is still live. Next, the odds are certainly different today. Finally, the outcome probabilities have changed. It seems to me that there are three possible approaches.

1. Be a gambler and do not hedge with another bet on Kansas City.
2. Bet enough on Kansas City to cover your first bet, insuring no loss.
3. Bet enough to create a certain and equal return eliminating the gamble.

If I take the third option, find the best odds, and wager an amount to get the same return regardless of the outcome, what is that amount? First you compute the expected return on the initial wager. That would be ExpRet1=Amount1*Odds1*Probability1. The expected return on the second wager would be the same formula with different values (note: Probability2 would equal 1-Probability1). Set the two equal to each other, plug in the known values; Amount1, Odds1, and Odds2. Estimate the current probability and solve the resulting equation for Amount2.

I’ve used the average book’s moneyline to estimate the probability of Tampa Bay winning at 0.40. I won’t detail the calculations. However, if the initial bet was $1 to win $10, the expected return of that bet would be $4.40. if the best money line I can find on Kansas City is -155, then the amount bet on them should be $4.46. That expected return would also be $4.40. I don’t yet know what I’ll do, but at least I know the numbers.

[u21c3f6]

Brims, here is how I look at this. One of the things that you hear all the time is “I am playing with the house’s money”. This to me is absolutely incorrect. You are always playing with “your” money. The real question to me is: what is the correct size wager on Tampa to win based on your bankroll? If the present value of your wager does not exceed your wager maximum, then any choice is a personal preference. If however the present value of your wager exceeds your maximum wager, then I would adjust it down to at least my maximum wager and anything lower would again be a personal preference. Joe.

[semibluff]

I wouldn't necessarily go with any of Bsims' choices. For me it comes down to how painful, (both financially and emotionally), the difference between winning and losing would be. For example: I wouldn't have bet $2.5K on the Buccaneers at +1000, but if I had, or I had some other wager where the difference between winning and losing was $27,500, I would be looking to hedge because that difference would hurt right now. There is nothing wrong with cashing out of either a winning or losing position. That's the secret to trading. If you're not prepared to trade out of a losing situation at a loss then you shouldn't be trading.

If it was $27,500 and the other side was -150 I could trade out at $16.5K at -150 and guarantee a profit of $8.5K. Trading out at -155 is like paying an insurance premium of $215.69 and it's less than 1% of the $27,500 prize. Personally I wouldn't hedge all of it. I'd leave $8-10K resting on the outcome, but that's based on my current financial position. Your decision should be based on your situation.

Obviously betting at -155 when you've capped an outcome at -150 isn't recommended in other circumstances. Good luck with whatever you do.

[BigdaddyQH]

It's the same old question. Is a little of something worth more to you than an all or nothing wager. No matter what people say in here, you know our financial situation better than anyone else, so it is your choice.

[Stallion]

Depends on your financial situation. I'd hedge on KC-155 just to be sure you win.

[sunshine11]

Let it ride. Don't be a scared gambler.

[deltgen]

I'm curious Sims (and I imagine alot of others are too)--what did you elect to do?

[Bsims]

Thanks for the thoughtful responses. The advice would be good for young gamblers to read and heed. In my case, I gamble for entertainment only. I view the process of analyzing and betting on sports to be fun and an intellectual pursuit. I wager enough to make me a bit nervous in games, but nowhere near an amount that losing would be painful. I learned that lesson in my early 20's and walked away from gambling for about a decade. I really don't have a bankroll as such. I just reload when a book hits zero. My real objective is to space out these reloads time-wise so they don't take away the fun.

So given that, I did hedge with Kansas City but not to the full extent. I insured a profit but left enough to make my original opinion on Tampa Bay worth more so I'd have a rooting interest.

It's now half time and the idiotically long show has given me time to respond to this thread. By the way, I did lay money on Kansas City -7.5 and over 28 in the second half. Still obviously rooting for Tampa Bay to win, but hope Kansas City gets their act together, scores enough points to force Tampa Bay to keep the throttle down. Regardless, I'll walk away a winner today. The only question is it a little or a lot by my standards.

By the way, at +4000, Bruce Koepka made it a lot for the day.

[Doug tushyterror]

Thanks for the thoughtful responses. The advice would be good for young gamblers to read and heed. In my case, I gamble for entertainment only. I view the process of analyzing and betting on sports to be fun and an intellectual pursuit. I wager enough to make me a bit nervous in games, but nowhere near an amount that losing would be painful. I learned that lesson in my early 20's and walked away from gambling for about a decade. I really don't have a bankroll as such. I just reload when a book hits zero. My real objective is to space out these reloads time-wise so they don't take away the fun.

So given that, I did hedge with Kansas City but not to the full extent. I insured a profit but left enough to make my original opinion on Tampa Bay worth more so I'd have a rooting interest.

It's now half time and the idiotically long show has given me time to respond to this thread. By the way, I did lay money on Kansas City -7.5 and over 28 in the second half. Still obviously rooting for Tampa Bay to win, but hope Kansas City gets their act together, scores enough points to force Tampa Bay to keep the throttle down. Regardless, I'll walk away a winner today. The only question is it a little or a lot by my standards.

By the way, at +4000, Bruce Koepka made it a lot for the day.

Bruce Koepka, any relation to Brooks?

[Bsims]

Bruce Koepka, any relation to Brooks?

Oops!

[Bsims]

Brims, here is how I look at this. One of the things that you hear all the time is “I am playing with the house’s money”. This to me is absolutely incorrect. You are always playing with “your” money. Joe.

The Super Bowl made me unhappy. Yes I correctly won a futures bet on Tampa Bay. But I gave away about half of it in 3 other losing bets. I did hedge the futures bet partially knowingly sacrificing some of my potential wins. The I lost both second half bets. I've generally make good money on these bets, but yesterday I was wrong.

I am unhappy because I made some wagering blunders. I made the one Joe mentioned with the second half bets. Knowing I had a profit for the day, I made bets at 2 and 3 times my normal amount. That's something I've done before and unfortunately will probably do again. Forgive me Joe. I need to work harder on the discipline required to manage the money.

The other issue is that in hindsight, I would have made more money taking the money line on Tampa Bay in all four games and rolling each win into the next wager. That would have gotten me about 15-1 instead of 10-1. I suspect that's probably true of underdogs on futures bets in single elimination tournaments, but maybe not favorites. I'm adding studying tennis lines to see if there are some opportunities here. Just one more fun project.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Let it ride.

Hedging small when facing a LARGE payout is totally reasonable. If it's just a small future...then your focus should be on THAT game. IE, how do u evaluate THAT game?

[mrgrognutt]

HI THERE NEW TO THE GAME, WHAT IS THE PROPER Way to hedge