1. #1
    danmam
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    Key numbers for betting NFL totals

    As everyone betting the NFL this year has noticed, scoring has skyrocketed. To me this seemed, before the season started, like something that was obviously going to occur, particularly for teams with A) excellent QBs known for their ability to read and dissect defenses, and B) schematic and personnel continuity on offense. Particularly in pass coverage, it's difficult enough for defenses with many reps to communicate properly and execute their assignments, let alone try to trick the QB and hide their coverage scheme pre-snap. Meanwhile these savvy vet QBs, running a scheme they know already with personnel they already have rapport with who also know the scheme, are facing essentially preseason-level vanilla defensive schemes. I was extremely bullish on the offenses of GB, PIT, KC, NO, ATL, DET, ARI, HOU, BAL, DAL, SEA, PHI, MIN, TEN, LAR, CLE and others for this very reason, but skeptical of any team undergoing a QB change or significant pass-catching personnel overhaul (CHI, CAR, NE, CIN, LAC, IND, TB, LV, DEN, etc.), coaching/offensive scheme change (some of the listed teams like CAR & CIN, plus WAS & others), and to a lesser extent, teams with schematic and personnel continuity but less talented QBs (NYJ, JAC, NYG, BUF (was lower on Josh Allen than I should've been), etc.). Some teams fall into multiple buckets, some I forgot to mention, but off the top of my head that was my thinking.

    Obviously I was right in some cases (as a GB fan, I take particular pride in predicting their offensive mastery thus far, though their inflated totals and have them as just 3-3 vs the over), and even with NO's offensive decline, they're 6-0 on hitting the over, and LV, TEN, CLE, MIN, SEA, PIT, PHI, DAL, HOU, & ATL all are 4-3 or better on hitting the over (as are BUF, TB, CIN, & JAC) -- of course many of these teams are hitting the over due to putrid defense as much as great offense, but if you've been betting NFL totals this year you know the over has been hitting at a rate that the sportsbooks may just now be catching up to: 56.3% Week 1, 68.8% Week 2, 56.3% Week 3, and finally 50% Week 4 and Week 5, and then 28.6% Week 6 as the books finally got ahead of the bettors. (Weeks 1-3 combined for 60.4% over hit rate; it was a rather profitable start to the season for me lol).

    OK now the main point. I know there's been discussion about how the key numbers for NFL totals (classically 37, 41, 44, 51, 43, as the top 5 in order of occurrence) may need adjustment, even prior to this year, due to the higher prevalence of 2-pt conversions, along with higher rates of scoring too. But this season seems almost to throw those numbers to the wayside entirely purely due to the increased scoring rate. Is it wiser this season to use NCAAF key numbers for totals, perhaps, when betting NFL totals? (55, 51, 45, 59, 48 being the top 5). To me the answer seems to be, to use a combination of the two (for high totals, use the NCAAF numbers, for lower totals the NFL ones); is there any reason one might think of why this logic isn't sound? Or, in other words, a NCAAF/NFL difference I'm not accounting for in simply using the higher-scoring NCAAF total key numbers as key NFL total numbers for NFL games with high totals? [I know this is an answerable question by looking at this year's data and seeing the most common NFL totals, but I don't like using small sample sizes; additionally I think the defenses will improve as the season goes on and totals will decrease back closer to their "norm" of previous years; though still likely higher than any prior year still]
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  2. #2
    CamNewtonOutfit
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    Quote Originally Posted by danmam View Post
    As everyone betting the NFL this year has noticed, scoring has skyrocketed. To me this seemed, before the season started, like something that was obviously going to occur, particularly for teams with A) excellent QBs known for their ability to read and dissect defenses, and B) schematic and personnel continuity on offense. Particularly in pass coverage, it's difficult enough for defenses with many reps to communicate properly and execute their assignments, let alone try to trick the QB and hide their coverage scheme pre-snap. Meanwhile these savvy vet QBs, running a scheme they know already with personnel they already have rapport with who also know the scheme, are facing essentially preseason-level vanilla defensive schemes. I was extremely bullish on the offenses of GB, PIT, KC, NO, ATL, DET, ARI, HOU, BAL, DAL, SEA, PHI, MIN, TEN, LAR, CLE and others for this very reason, but skeptical of any team undergoing a QB change or significant pass-catching personnel overhaul (CHI, CAR, NE, CIN, LAC, IND, TB, LV, DEN, etc.), coaching/offensive scheme change (some of the listed teams like CAR & CIN, plus WAS & others), and to a lesser extent, teams with schematic and personnel continuity but less talented QBs (NYJ, JAC, NYG, BUF (was lower on Josh Allen than I should've been), etc.). Some teams fall into multiple buckets, some I forgot to mention, but off the top of my head that was my thinking.

    Obviously I was right in some cases (as a GB fan, I take particular pride in predicting their offensive mastery thus far, though their inflated totals and have them as just 3-3 vs the over), and even with NO's offensive decline, they're 6-0 on hitting the over, and LV, TEN, CLE, MIN, SEA, PIT, PHI, DAL, HOU, & ATL all are 4-3 or better on hitting the over (as are BUF, TB, CIN, & JAC) -- of course many of these teams are hitting the over due to putrid defense as much as great offense, but if you've been betting NFL totals this year you know the over has been hitting at a rate that the sportsbooks may just now be catching up to: 56.3% Week 1, 68.8% Week 2, 56.3% Week 3, and finally 50% Week 4 and Week 5, and then 28.6% Week 6 as the books finally got ahead of the bettors. (Weeks 1-3 combined for 60.4% over hit rate; it was a rather profitable start to the season for me lol).

    OK now the main point. I know there's been discussion about how the key numbers for NFL totals (classically 37, 41, 44, 51, 43, as the top 5 in order of occurrence) may need adjustment, even prior to this year, due to the higher prevalence of 2-pt conversions, along with higher rates of scoring too. But this season seems almost to throw those numbers to the wayside entirely purely due to the increased scoring rate. Is it wiser this season to use NCAAF key numbers for totals, perhaps, when betting NFL totals? (55, 51, 45, 59, 48 being the top 5). To me the answer seems to be, to use a combination of the two (for high totals, use the NCAAF numbers, for lower totals the NFL ones); is there any reason one might think of why this logic isn't sound? Or, in other words, a NCAAF/NFL difference I'm not accounting for in simply using the higher-scoring NCAAF total key numbers as key NFL total numbers for NFL games with high totals? [I know this is an answerable question by looking at this year's data and seeing the most common NFL totals, but I don't like using small sample sizes; additionally I think the defenses will improve as the season goes on and totals will decrease back closer to their "norm" of previous years; though still likely higher than any prior year still]
    Hey what are the most common totals in NFL games for 2020? the first 7 games. why dont you go with that as the most common list of numbers. also might want to check 2019. i may check this myself.

  3. #3
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by danmam View Post
    ...NFL totals (classically 37, 41, 44, 51, 43, as the top 5 in order of occurrence) may need adjustment...

    ...Is it wiser this season to use NCAAF key numbers for totals, perhaps, when betting NFL totals? (55, 51, 45, 59, 48 being the top 5)...
    It is not likely wiser to arbitrarily take what you think are key numbers from a a different sport to apply to the NFL but you could always back test.

    Another suggestion would be in fact to make a more meaningful adjustment to the key number and use a recency effect with a larger sample.

    Going with the "classic" numbers may throw you off a little, but perhaps not much.

    Try looking at the last 20 years or so, then see what you consider the top 5 in order. It will be different that what you have. You can weight the recent higher scoring as well but be careful, the market because the market may not be what you think it is.

    Why adjust at all right now?

    The lines are within reason of the distribution of NFL scores and the Total count based on the closing line is basically a 50% split with 51 games going UNDER and 51 games going over with a couple of pushes.

    The public favors OVERs and favorites and from your post it sounds like you do the same. Scores might be higher on average, but what about medians? Keep an eye on the variance and standard deviations of the lines and results for the league as a whole and the teams specifically. It will reveal quite a bit. As with every year, the market has overestimated scores for a slew of teams.

    Taking numbers from a large sample of NCAAF games and laying them over the NFL might be a decent hypothesis to start with, but I think there are better ways figure NFL key numbers and to use them effectively.

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  4. #4
    CamNewtonOutfit
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    It is not likely wiser to arbitrarily take what you think are key numbers from a a different sport to apply to the NFL but you could always back test.

    Another suggestion would be in fact to make a more meaningful adjustment to the key number and use a recency effect with a larger sample.

    Going with the "classic" numbers may throw you off a little, but perhaps not much.

    Try looking at the last 20 years or so, then see what you consider the top 5 in order. It will be different that what you have. You can weight the recent higher scoring as well but be careful, the market because the market may not be what you think it is.

    Why adjust at all right now?

    The lines are within reason of the distribution of NFL scores and the Total count based on the closing line is basically a 50% split with 51 games going UNDER and 51 games going over with a couple of pushes.

    The public favors OVERs and favorites and from your post it sounds like you do the same. Scores might be higher on average, but what about medians? Keep an eye on the variance and standard deviations of the lines and results for the league as a whole and the teams specifically. It will reveal quite a bit. As with every year, the market has overestimated scores for a slew of teams.

    Taking numbers from a large sample of NCAAF games and laying them over the NFL might be a decent hypothesis to start with, but I think there are better ways figure NFL key numbers and to use them effectively.

    Keep in mind theres been a few major changes in NFL land, one people miss extra points because its kicked from further out. Second thing, it may be that coaches are now going for 2 more often, and the starting drive goes from 25 instead of 20 for touch backs.
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  5. #5
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by CamNewtonOutfit View Post
    Keep in mind theres been a few major changes in NFL land, one people miss extra points because its kicked from further out. Second thing, it may be that coaches are now going for 2 more often, and the starting drive goes from 25 instead of 20 for touch backs.
    Exactly. Changing the distance for the extra point is an attempt to erode key numbers and that's why I stress a recent weighting, at least to some degree.

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  6. #6
    danmam
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    Thanks for the input. I did mention above the fact that there may be new key numbers emerging as a result of the increased prevalence of missed XPs/higher rate of 2-pt conversion attempts. I've found a data set that has analyzed both MOVs in the first 3 years (2015-17) after the XP was moved back to the 15 yard line (as compared to the prior 15ish years), and another comparison of NFL point totals. (Will attempt to post tables below, but not great coding so will probably just end up linking to the articles). But what I'm interested in is more specifically THIS season, where scoring (probably due to the COVID-19 shortened training camp) is at an all-time high by a significant margin (teams are averaging 25.4 ppg; that's 11.4% higher than last year, and 8.5% higher -- 2 full ppg -- than the next-highest scoring season ever (2013)). This is driven by a record rate of offensive TDs (1.05 rush TDs/game, a 20.7% increase from last season and the first time since 1979 teams are averaging >1 rush TD/game; and 1.75 pass TDs per game, an increase of 12.2% from 2019 and 6.1% higher -- 0.1 pass TD/game -- than the previous NFL record of 1.65 set in 2018). Teams are averaging record offensive total yards/game (364.3 ypg vs previous record of 352.7 ypg in 2015); record passing yards/game (245.8 vs previous record of 243.8 in 2015, and >10 ypg more than 2019's 235.0 ypg); more rushing yards/game than any year since 1988 (118.4 ypg; 2019 was 112.9 ypg), and resultantly scoring on a record 41.7% of drives (5.1% above the previous record of 36.5% in 2018), plus are setting NFL records in plays per drive (6.17 vs previous record 5.86 in 2019); yards per drive (33.7 vs previous record 31.4 in 2018), and, of course, pts/drive (2.30 -- a full 15% higher than 2018's previous record 2.00 pts/drive). Also currently the 2020 season is setting new records in rush yards/attempt, passing completion% (by almost a full 1% over 2018's prior record), adjusted yds/pass attempt (takes TDs & INTs into account), net yards/pass attempt (takes lost yards sacked into account), adjusted net yards/pass attempt (takes all 3 into account), plus passer rating (a flawed stat of course, but one 2020 is blowing away any other season in -- 94.5 in 2020 compared to 2018's previous record of 92.9, and 2019's next-best finish of 90.4).

    2pt conversions made are also at a record high of 0.15 per game, above 2019's prior record of 0.13; XPMs are up from last year and at their highest rate since the year before the XP was moved back to the 15-yard line in 2014 (2.44 XPM/game in 2020 is the highest since 2013's 2.46 XPM/game). But I think those are all obviously resulting from the rate of offensive TDs increasing so dramatically. 25.4 ppg in 2020 (2 ppg above 2013's previous record-high, and 2.6 ppg above the 22.8 ppg teams averaged in 2019) is an increase that is really only explained by increased offensive proficiency, in particular in scoring TDs. (The increase in 2PTM & XPM makes up 0.6 ppg of the 5.2 total ppg increase in scoring from 2019; increased FGM contribute another 0.66 ppg; that's 3.94 ppg (actually slightly more, as defensive & special teams TDs have decreased relative to 2019) due purely to offensive TDs increasing dramatically. And, obviously, the increase in 2PTM & XPM are directly causally linked to increased TDs being scored, and the increase in FGM relates to offensive efficiency as well (2020 teams are scoring 17.9% more pts/drive than in 2019).

    While scoring has been following a steady upward trend (18.7 ppg per team in 1993 was the last time team scoring was below 20 ppg; 2006 the last time it was below 21.5 ppg; & with the exception of 2017's 21.7 ppg, it's been at least 22.0 ppg every year since 2010). Yet I do believe there's a sort of discontinuity happening in the 2020 season as a result of the COVID-19 shortened off-seasons & their effects on defensive cohesiveness. My love for betting the "over" comes not from the typical square betting handbook; it was a strategy I foresaw being highly effective early in the season as I believed, in general, offenses would be ahead of defenses (particularly for teams with low personnel/coaching turnover on offense), and that it would take a few weeks for the books to catch up, as well as for defenses to form the necessary cohesiveness to be more effective. The books didn't catch up until Week 4 (overs hit at a >60% rate Weeks 1-3 combined, 50% Week 4, and then the books got ahead of the bettors Week 5 and the unders ruled the day). So I believe the books have caught up. For scoring to jump a full 4 ppg above the previous NFL historical record high, and total offensive YPG to jump over 23 ypg above the previous historical record high, is an increase I don't think we've seen before, and one that has causal explanation as well. So that's why I'm hesitant to simply use 2019 or 2018 data as a proxy for this year's scoring totals. But I've gone and already grabbed all of 2020's totals, and will likely add 2018 and 2019 data to the data set linked below as I noticed those years had higher rates of 2PTM/gm than any year besides 2020.
    And to CamNewtonOutfit: I can't respond to PM's until I hit 40 posts but yes I'd be interested in collaborating. Maybe I need to go on a posting spree or we can just create a new thread (or use this one) to communicate.

    Sources for below tables: https://www.actionnetwork.com/how-to...tting-analysis & https://www.actionnetwork.com/how-to...victory-spread

    Total 2003-14 2015-17 Difference
    43 3.7% 4.0% 0.3%
    47 3.2% 3.6% 0.4%
    41 4.0% 3.6% -0.4%
    40 3.3% 3.5% 0.2%
    55 2.4% 3.1% 0.7%
    50 2.2% 3.1% 0.9%
    37 4.0% 3.1% -0.9%
    34 2.5% 3.1% 0.6%
    51 3.7% 3.0% -0.7%
    44 4.1% 2.9% -1.2%
    33 3.1% 2.7% -0.4%
    54 1.7% 2.6% 0.9%
    49 1.7% 2.6% 0.9%
    46 1.7% 2.6% 0.9%
    45 2.7% 2.6% -0.1%
    48 3.1% 2.5% -0.6%
    39 1.8% 2.5% 0.7%
    57 1.7% 2.4% 0.7%
    30 2.8% 2.4% -0.4%
    36 2.4% 2.2% -0.2%
    35 1.5% 2.0% 0.5%
    52 2.3% 1.9% -0.4%
    38 2.1% 1.9% -0.2%
    53 1.5% 1.7% 0.2%
    42 1.3% 1.7% 0.4%
    32 1.2% 1.5% 0.3%
    31 1.9% 1.5% -0.4%
    56 0.7% 1.1% 0.4%
    60 0.5% 1.0% 0.5%
    59 1.3% 1.0% -0.3%
    58 1.9% 1.0% -0.9%

    MOV 2003-14 2015-17 Difference
    3 14.96% 15.04% 0.08%
    7 9.15% 9.36% 0.21%
    6 5.53% 8.09% 2.56%
    14 4.78% 5.06% 0.28%
    5 2.87% 5.06% 2.19%
    10 6.12% 4.68% -1.44%
    4 5.37% 4.30% -1.07%
    8 3.25% 3.92% 0.67%
    1 3.72% 3.92% 0.20%
    2 3.65% 3.79% 0.14%
    17 3.34% 3.03% -0.31%
    21 3.22% 2.91% -0.31%
    16 1.81% 2.78% 0.97%
    20 2.31% 2.65% 0.34%
    13 3.19% 2.65% -0.54%
    11 2.62% 2.65% 0.03%
    28 1.84% 2.28% 0.44%
    9 1.44% 2.15% 0.71%
    18 2.25% 1.90% -0.35%
    15 1.50% 1.52% 0.02%
    12 1.53% 1.52% -0.01%
    24 2.40% 1.39% -1.01%
    25 1.12% 1.26% 0.14%
    23 1.09% 1.01% -0.08%
    22 1.06% 0.88% -0.18%
    19 1.16% 0.88% -0.28%
    30 0.44% 0.76% 0.32%
    27 1.53% 0.76% -0.77%
    31 1.41% 0.63% -0.78%
    26 0.59% 0.63% 0.04%
    35 0.62% 0.51% -0.11%
    34 0.66% 0.51% -0.15%
    33 0.28% 0.51% 0.23%
    29 0.62% 0.51% -0.11%
    32 0.47% 0.25% -0.22%
    0 0.12% 0.25% 0.13%
    36 or more 1.97% 0.00% -1.97%
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  7. #7
    danmam
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    I can't reply to PMs til I hit 40 posts but I'm interested in collaborating. I've already done some work gathering 2020's totals through week 7, and can get 2018 and 2019's closing line totals and actual game totals easily as well. I think 2018 and 2019 are important additions to the data set I linked above because they both had higher 2PTM/game than any prior year and are 2nd and 3rd to 2020's rate of 2PTM/game, so the data set ending with the 2017 season I showed in my post I think would certainly benefit from them.

  8. #8
    danmam
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    Total Games 2020 frequency 2015-17 frequency Difference
    24 1 0.95%
    26 1 0.95%
    28 2 1.90%
    29 1 0.95%
    30 5 4.76% 2.40% 2.36%
    32 1 0.95% 1.50% -0.55%
    34 1 0.95% 3.10% -2.15%
    36 1 0.95% 2.20% -1.25%
    37 2 1.90% 3.10% -1.20%
    38 1 0.95% 1.90% -0.95%
    39 6 5.71% 2.50% 3.21%
    40 3 2.86% 3.50% -0.64%
    41 0 0 3.60% -3.60%
    42 1 0.95% 1.70% -0.75%
    43 4 3.81% 4.00% -0.19%
    44 7 6.67% 2.90% 3.77%
    45 5 4.76% 2.60% 2.16%
    46 2 1.90% 2.60% -0.70%
    47 2 1.90% 3.60% -1.70%
    48 4 3.81% 2.50% 1.31%
    49 3 2.86% 2.60% 0.26%
    50 2 1.90% 3.10% -1.20%
    51 2 1.90% 3.00% -1.10%
    52 1 0.95% 1.90% -0.95%
    53 2 1.90% 1.70% 0.20%
    54 5 4.76% 2.60% 2.16%
    55 2 1.90% 3.10% -1.20%
    56 3 2.86% 1.10% 1.76%
    57 2 1.90% 2.40% -0.50%
    58 5 4.76% 1.00% 3.76%
    59 2 1.90% 1.00% 0.90%
    60 1 0.95% 1.00% -0.05%
    61 1 0.95%
    63 4 3.81%
    64 2 1.90%
    65 4 3.81%
    67 3 2.86%
    68 1 0.95%
    69 2 1.90%
    71 3 2.86%
    72 1 0.95%
    77 1 0.95%
    78 1 0.95%
    79 1 0.95%
    87 1 0.95%


    Here's what I've got for 2020 totals so far, compared to the data from the linked source in my previous post (2015-17 totals). They only gave final totals between 30 & 60, which amounted to 74.4% of all games in those 3 years; in 2020, totals are falling between 30 and 60 71.4% of the time. My worry again, is 2020 is almost a discontinuity in scoring relative to 2019 and earlier. 23.8% of totals so far this year have landed ABOVE 60; almost a quarter of all games. I need to dig more to see what the prevalence of that was in 2015-17, as well as how the 2020 data matches the 2018-19 data, but I bolded the most prevalent 2020 totals, the most prevalent 2015-17 totals, and any that differ by 2%+. I think the 2020 sample size is too small for extremely meaningful takeaways but, preliminarily, I think this provides some evidence the key numbers this season are certainly not echoing, to the extent even a small sample size might be expected to (which is, possibly not very much), the post-PAT rule change key numbers for 2015-17 totals.

  9. #9
    danmam
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    Quote Originally Posted by CamNewtonOutfit View Post
    Keep in mind theres been a few major changes in NFL land, one people miss extra points because its kicked from further out. Second thing, it may be that coaches are now going for 2 more often, and the starting drive goes from 25 instead of 20 for touch backs.
    In case you didn't see, I can't respond to PMs til my post count hits 40 but I'm interested in collaborating on figuring out these new key numbers; totals and I think spread numbers. I had no clue 6 is almost as common a MOV as 7 post-PAT rule change (and I have a feeling it might have increased in frequency the past 2 years). I can do some analysis on this, and 2020 MOV's, today after I get some bets in and set some DFS lineups

  10. #10
    hehfest
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    Until the defense is allowed to tackle again, touch a QB again, and doesn't give up a 1st down on 3rd and 40 on a 5 yard holding penalty......just expect the totals to keep going up. I'm surprised it didn't get out of control like this a few years ago. It just keeps getting worse. If you can't hit the QB, just don't have tackling in football anymore. This has become outrageous. Now, the defensive players have to go through some sort of penetrating protocol in their head while approaching a player with the ball or about to get the ball.

    Oh hey, can I tackle this way. Nope, better pull back. Oh no, I can't do that I forgot. That's how I learned how to tackle since pop warner. I better relearn how to tackle now. That makes sense. So, people keep complaining about how guys are missing tackles and that might help explain what's going on. They've made it near impossible to tackle, just like they are making it near impossible to make a living.

  11. #11
    danmam
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    I learned how to tackle in Pop Warner and what you see in the NFL is a far cry from that. DBs basically use their bodies as human bullets in many cases, not even attempting to wrap up, just trying to deliver a knockout hit. And when that tackling method involves leading with the head into the helmet of the opposing player, that's a deserved penalty in my book. Tackling is taught: break down, keep your head up, lead with the shoulder into the legs/torso of the opponent. I get your frustration, and I think there are bad calls where a clean hit is penalized, but for the most part, when the average NFL player's life span is 22 years less than that of the general US population (despite an average NFL career length being less than 4 years), something's gotta change. It'll always be a violent sport; in my opinion, protecting the athletes is a moral imperative, nonetheless. Sorry if that makes football not manly enough for you. Thanks for your irrelevant-to-this-thread input, however.

  12. #12
    hehfest
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    Quote Originally Posted by danmam View Post
    I learned how to tackle in Pop Warner and what you see in the NFL is a far cry from that. DBs basically use their bodies as human bullets in many cases, not even attempting to wrap up, just trying to deliver a knockout hit. And when that tackling method involves leading with the head into the helmet of the opposing player, that's a deserved penalty in my book. Tackling is taught: break down, keep your head up, lead with the shoulder into the legs/torso of the opponent. I get your frustration, and I think there are bad calls where a clean hit is penalized, but for the most part, when the average NFL player's life span is 22 years less than that of the general US population (despite an average NFL career length being less than 4 years), something's gotta change. It'll always be a violent sport; in my opinion, protecting the athletes is a moral imperative, nonetheless. Sorry if that makes football not manly enough for you. Thanks for your irrelevant-to-this-thread input, however.

    It is relevant to the thread. I'm telling him to lean on overs ROS because of the NFL rules on tackling. So, should the offensive player be penalized (like RB, WR) for lowering their head first? The speed of the game is extremely fast and I don't think the player intentionally is trying to go head first. Each player is trying to get lower for the collision which is why the head dart happens. The defender lowers himself thinking at his angle he will NOT be making head contact but then the offensive player moves as well.

    I didn't play football, but I can still relate because I played hockey forever. Hitting in hockey is different but it is still square your shoulders and watch the skaters chest not their head.

    The problem is to me, that the game is so fast these players are trying to make plays so fast.....its almost natural instinct to launch themselves at the player to make that play. I'm sure some of them purposely do it to be macho or hardcore thinking they are bada*s.

    Whatever man. The facts of the matter are they have to make it more difficult for the offenses to score. Make it 1st and 20 or 1st and 15 from now on. Change defensive holding penalties to only 5 yards not automatic first downs.

  13. #13
    Choi The Gamer
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    danmam, do you happen to have a breakdown for actual scores?

    Let's say you play a squares game for NFL. Last digit of each team's points gives you a number that wins the pool (47 is equivalent to 14-27 or 24-7, 00 is equivalent to 30-20 or 20-0 etc).

    Obviously some numbers like 47/74 would be more likely than 25/52 or especially 83/38. But how more likely? If you could share this date I'd be very thankful.

    Good luck in your research and betting!

    Quote Originally Posted by danmam View Post
    Total Games 2020 frequency 2015-17 frequency Difference
    24 1 0.95%
    26 1 0.95%
    28 2 1.90%
    29 1 0.95%
    30 5 4.76% 2.40% 2.36%
    32 1 0.95% 1.50% -0.55%
    34 1 0.95% 3.10% -2.15%
    36 1 0.95% 2.20% -1.25%
    37 2 1.90% 3.10% -1.20%
    38 1 0.95% 1.90% -0.95%
    39 6 5.71% 2.50% 3.21%
    40 3 2.86% 3.50% -0.64%
    41 0 0 3.60% -3.60%
    42 1 0.95% 1.70% -0.75%
    43 4 3.81% 4.00% -0.19%
    44 7 6.67% 2.90% 3.77%
    45 5 4.76% 2.60% 2.16%
    46 2 1.90% 2.60% -0.70%
    47 2 1.90% 3.60% -1.70%
    48 4 3.81% 2.50% 1.31%
    49 3 2.86% 2.60% 0.26%
    50 2 1.90% 3.10% -1.20%
    51 2 1.90% 3.00% -1.10%
    52 1 0.95% 1.90% -0.95%
    53 2 1.90% 1.70% 0.20%
    54 5 4.76% 2.60% 2.16%
    55 2 1.90% 3.10% -1.20%
    56 3 2.86% 1.10% 1.76%
    57 2 1.90% 2.40% -0.50%
    58 5 4.76% 1.00% 3.76%
    59 2 1.90% 1.00% 0.90%
    60 1 0.95% 1.00% -0.05%
    61 1 0.95%
    63 4 3.81%
    64 2 1.90%
    65 4 3.81%
    67 3 2.86%
    68 1 0.95%
    69 2 1.90%
    71 3 2.86%
    72 1 0.95%
    77 1 0.95%
    78 1 0.95%
    79 1 0.95%
    87 1 0.95%


    Here's what I've got for 2020 totals so far, compared to the data from the linked source in my previous post (2015-17 totals). They only gave final totals between 30 & 60, which amounted to 74.4% of all games in those 3 years; in 2020, totals are falling between 30 and 60 71.4% of the time. My worry again, is 2020 is almost a discontinuity in scoring relative to 2019 and earlier. 23.8% of totals so far this year have landed ABOVE 60; almost a quarter of all games. I need to dig more to see what the prevalence of that was in 2015-17, as well as how the 2020 data matches the 2018-19 data, but I bolded the most prevalent 2020 totals, the most prevalent 2015-17 totals, and any that differ by 2%+. I think the 2020 sample size is too small for extremely meaningful takeaways but, preliminarily, I think this provides some evidence the key numbers this season are certainly not echoing, to the extent even a small sample size might be expected to (which is, possibly not very much), the post-PAT rule change key numbers for 2015-17 totals.

  14. #14
    danmam
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    Quote Originally Posted by hehfest View Post
    It is relevant to the thread. I'm telling him to lean on overs ROS because of the NFL rules on tackling. So, should the offensive player be penalized (like RB, WR) for lowering their head first? The speed of the game is extremely fast and I don't think the player intentionally is trying to go head first. Each player is trying to get lower for the collision which is why the head dart happens. The defender lowers himself thinking at his angle he will NOT be making head contact but then the offensive player moves as well.

    I didn't play football, but I can still relate because I played hockey forever. Hitting in hockey is different but it is still square your shoulders and watch the skaters chest not their head.

    The problem is to me, that the game is so fast these players are trying to make plays so fast.....its almost natural instinct to launch themselves at the player to make that play. I'm sure some of them purposely do it to be macho or hardcore thinking they are bada*s.

    Whatever man. The facts of the matter are they have to make it more difficult for the offenses to score. Make it 1st and 20 or 1st and 15 from now on. Change defensive holding penalties to only 5 yards not automatic first downs.
    Leaning on overs for the remainder of the season would be a mistake; the sportsbooks obviously know scoring is up and are raising totals accordingly. Like I said, overs hit >60% of the time Weeks 1-3, 50% of the time Week 4, and went I believe something like 4-10 Week 5. They've adjusted and continuing to hammer overs isn't going to be a winning strategy. So no, this isn't relevant to finding key numbers in 2020 totals so I know when a half point line difference at one book provides a meaningful advantage over another line.

    Regardless, WHY do we need to decrease scoring? Just to make football like it used to be? So we have more games decided by kickers instead of the 22 "real" football players doing the grunt work play after play? To put the game more in control of the punter, instead? I can appreciate a pitcher's duel in baseball with each SP executing to near perfection -- that's good baseball. A beautifully designed and executed offensive NFL play is more exciting than a defensive puntfest. Yes, HRs are exciting in baseball too, as is scoring, but two teams fighting it out in a low-scoring football game chock full of 3-and-outs, punts, sacks, incompletions, short-yardage gains, and at best, field goals, isn't a fun game to watch for most people. It's not the equivalent of a pitcher's duel, where 2 athletes are performing at a rare elite level and the lack of scoring results from that. Two teams trading TDs on well-executed and schemed plays is simply more exciting and enjoyable football to most fans. And the fact that it's a natural result of emphasizing player safety is even more reason why I'm befuddled at your insistence on less scoring (and I notice you do have alternative ideas of how to decrease scoring without eliminating the offense-friendly penalties you dislike -- I still just don't get why less scoring = a goal we need to make rules to accomplish).

    And yes, again I sympathize with the DBs and pass rushers whose jobs are harder now because of these rules. I'm positive most of these penalties aren't intentional and are a result of the speed of the game. The solution, though, is to even more thoroughly emphasize, at every level, safe, sound tackling techniques, and to continue to punish those who, intentional or not, violate the player safety rules recently put in place for receivers and QBs in particular. Overnight, the problem won't go away, but a top to bottom concerted effort (starting at the youth level but emphasized more strongly in college and the NFL than currently) to tackle fundamentally soundly. And players are improving at it. Not an overnight process, but a necessary one, imo.

  15. #15
    danmam
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    Quote Originally Posted by Choi The Gamer View Post
    danmam, do you happen to have a breakdown for actual scores?

    Let's say you play a squares game for NFL. Last digit of each team's points gives you a number that wins the pool (47 is equivalent to 14-27 or 24-7, 00 is equivalent to 30-20 or 20-0 etc).

    Obviously some numbers like 47/74 would be more likely than 25/52 or especially 83/38. But how more likely? If you could share this date I'd be very thankful.

    Good luck in your research and betting!
    I believe this is what you're looking for (not updated through last night's game). Column 1, final digit of a team's score, and columns 2 and 3 the frequency that final digit has occurred for both visiting and home teams this year thus far.

    Visitor Home
    0 22 18
    1 5 17
    2 8 1
    3 12 15
    4 11 9
    5 5 6
    6 13 12
    7 13 14
    8 12 5
    9 4 8

  16. #16
    danmam
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    Actually this is probably what you were looking for:




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  17. #17
    danmam
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    See post above, I think I've got what you're looking for (not updated through last night's game though, 2020 data only so far).

    Quote Originally Posted by Choi The Gamer View Post
    danmam, do you happen to have a breakdown for actual scores?

    Let's say you play a squares game for NFL. Last digit of each team's points gives you a number that wins the pool (47 is equivalent to 14-27 or 24-7, 00 is equivalent to 30-20 or 20-0 etc).

    Obviously some numbers like 47/74 would be more likely than 25/52 or especially 83/38. But how more likely? If you could share this date I'd be very thankful.

    Good luck in your research and betting!

  18. #18
    d2bets
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    The sample size for just this half season is way too small to draw conclusions.

    Every point life matters.
    Points Awarded:

    turbobets gave d2bets 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
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    175 pts

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  19. #19
    Fred The Hammer
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    I wonder what the primetime NFL Over/Under is for the last 2-3 years? Feels like everything finds a way to go Over, but actually:

    2020 ThursdayNF, SNF, and MNF are 14-9 (61%) Under with the miracle Over tonite. If Giants don't convert crazy 4th down, etc then its 15-8 Under (65.2%)

    I challenge any totals player to dispute the fact that CFB is 100x easier. For example:

    Ole Miss/Alabama 69 (Scored 101)
    Florida/Texas A&M 57.5 (Scored 79)
    Minn/Maryland 60.5 (Scored 89)
    NC/Virginia 61.5 (Scored 85)

    Its crazy! They call targeting or pass interference in college on every 4th pass. If you like totals then gtf out of the nfl and start capping cfb. Not to mention you have the aspect of OT which can put any 20-20 game Over 60 in a heartbeat

  20. #20
    Sanity Check
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    Questions on this.

    # Have injuries per season increased over time
    # Do injuries impair defensive lines more than offensive lines
    # Have steroid and performance enhancing drug use increased, leading to more explosive and faster athletes
    # Have athletes sacrificed cardio and endurance for greater muscle mass and bulk

    On the flip side.

    Play callers are opting for more run center plays with little gain to run clocks down and encourage the under to hit.

    There are less plays executed which end out of bounds to stop the game clock to give unders more likelihood of hitting.

  21. #21
    danmam
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanity Check View Post
    Questions on this.

    # Have injuries per season increased over time
    # Do injuries impair defensive lines more than offensive lines
    # Have steroid and performance enhancing drug use increased, leading to more explosive and faster athletes
    # Have athletes sacrificed cardio and endurance for greater muscle mass and bulk

    On the flip side.

    Play callers are opting for more run center plays with little gain to run clocks down and encourage the under to hit.

    There are less plays executed which end out of bounds to stop the game clock to give unders more likelihood of hitting.
    I'm not sure I agree with you. but re: questions:

    - As players have become more athletic (faster, bigger, stronger, often all 3) the force of collisions has increased. I believe players bulking up more than in past years (I'll leave steroid use alone since it's all pure conjecture; we could easily have gotten to our current level of athleticism in NFL players through improved understanding of how best to strengthen the human body and improve its agility and speed; advances in understanding muscle teardown and regrowth and sports nutrition, with legal supplements added, I believe either would have gotten us here anyway or, more likely, largely have gotten us here more than rampant steroid abuse). These higher-force collisions disproportionately impact ligaments like the ACL/MCL, which aren't equipped to handle the forces they're subjected to. At the same time, player safety measures have been put in place, some over a decade ago such as penalizing chop blocks and horse-collar tackles, and more recently, broad measures preventing defenseless players from getting lit up, harsh penalties for tackles that lead with the head into the opponents helmet area, crackdowns on late hits out of bounds or after a QB has released the ball, penalties for several forms of blindside blocks such as crackbacks, the elimination of wedge blocking (or at least 3+ player wedge blocking, can't recall which) on kickoff returns; harsh penalties for roughing kickers/punters; safer equipment; etc.

    I think competing forces are at play. Ligament tears may be up due to more forceful collisions occurring; traumatic head injuries as well, though potentially counterbalanced more effectively than other injury types due to rule changes and better protective equipment. Soft tissue injuries may be up due to increased focus on building mass and strength training; again, probably at least somewhat counteracted by a better understanding of how stretching muscles works to reduce this, and increased understanding of the importance of flexibility and dexterity.

    Why did I write all that off-topic shit in this thread? I don't know and wish I had that time back. Everything you said below "on the flip side" is nonsense. I believe you're likely a forum troll and this is our first time meeting. I give you a D for content but B for effectiveness. You won't sniff another B from me unless you raise your game a LOT.

  22. #22
    Sanity Check
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    Quote Originally Posted by danmam View Post
    Everything you said below "on the flip side" is nonsense.
    Green bay executed more plays ending out of bounds in games they scored north of 30 points.

    Games where they scored 20 points, they targeted the center more to keep the clock running down.

    What's "nonsense" about that.

  23. #23
    danmam
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanity Check View Post
    Green bay executed more plays ending out of bounds in games they scored north of 30 points.

    Games where they scored 20 points, they targeted the center more to keep the clock running down.

    What's "nonsense" about that.
    Everything, lol. Gotta up your game more fella.

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