1. #1
    MinisterEric
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    Taking action from a fish family member. Need percentage advice.

    I have a family member that I have been taking bets with for years and I've made literally thousands. We don't charge vig, but I constantly move the lines in my favor and he rarely fails to bite. We're talking the typical "chalk and the over" fish. So my question is, in the NFL, say Team A is listed at -7, and I move it to -9. How much are those points "worth" by percentage? My estimation is one point should be worth about 2% in my favor taking a 50/50 bet and moving it to 51/49, 2 points 4% 52/48, etc. Any links on this and/or help is appreciated.

  2. #2
    KVB
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    Over the last 20 years a 7 point margin of victory is 2.7 times more likely to occur than an 8 point victory and 6.34 times more likely to occur than a 9 point victory.

    I do have push rates and frequencies of just about everything going back a long time. They evolve and adjust as rule changes and the game evolves. There is a recency effect that many standard modelers will neglect.

    But that's not what you want, thank goodness because that data is a major part of grinding edges.

    For your purpose, check out the 1/2 point calculator here...

    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/pic...nt-calculator/

    But in the end, if you're regularly cashing in on this guy without the need for the vig, then don't mess up a good thing pushing edgy lines. If you are shading the lines, that in itself is a form of charging vig.

    Good Luck Reverend.

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  3. #3
    nickfolker23
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    Does doingi this make one a terrible person?
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 2 times . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: Dan Kelly, and TonyTone

  4. #4
    trytrytry
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    Quote Originally Posted by nickfolker23 View Post
    Does doingi this make one a terrible person?
    depends I mean if he says the games he likes first and then you pump the line 2 then yes you are terrible.

    if you give all the lines first pumpin or moving what you think is fair value or guessing his plays and are also willing no exception to take a +9 out of the blue then no its an adult choice. Assuming all the marbles are there etc etc.
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  5. #5
    jose21_us
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    My opinion is your a scumbag...

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  6. #6
    KVB
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    So should I arm him with push rates and frequencies, or not?

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  7. #7
    USCPHILLYGUY
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    So should I arm him with push rates and frequencies, or not?

    Guys a creep. Fuk him

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  8. #8
    ByeShea
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    Quote Originally Posted by MinisterEric View Post
    So my question is, in the NFL, say Team A is listed at -7, and I move it to -9. How much are those points "worth" by percentage? My estimation is one point should be worth about 2% in my favor taking a 50/50 bet and moving it to 51/49, 2 points 4% 52/48, etc. Any links on this and/or help is appreciated.
    They go over this very subject in detail on Quora.

  9. #9
    BOA12
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    Quote Originally Posted by jose21_us View Post
    My opinion is your a scumbag...
    It's all relative.

  10. #10
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by ByeShea View Post
    First answer is straight up..."your cousin is pojecting"

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  11. #11
    MinisterEric
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    Nope. If a guy is betting 80% favorites and 80% overs, I'm already taking that into account and bumping every favorite and total when I send him lines. It's not my fault he doesn't bother to check if they're accurate or not.

  12. #12
    TheGoldenGoose
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    Quote Originally Posted by BOA12 View Post
    It's all relative.
    touche

  13. #13
    cybersharp
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    Quote Originally Posted by jose21_us View Post
    My opinion is your a scumbag...
    Some folks -- who think they're streetwise, and therefore COOL -- would answer your opinion
    by saying that old Biblical quote:

    "IF HE HAD NOT WANTED THEM SHEARED, HE WOULD NOT HAVE MADE THEM SHEEP."

    But those people are just scumbags too. Just like the OP.

  14. #14
    RedApples
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    First off, I don't think you know what "fails to bite" means. Secondly, your family seems to be full of fish. Thirdly, and not surprisingly considering the first 2- you are a scumbag for this.

  15. #15
    CantFeelMyFace
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    Quote Originally Posted by MinisterEric View Post
    Nope. If a guy is betting 80% favorites and 80% overs, I'm already taking that into account and bumping every favorite and total when I send him lines. It's not my fault he doesn't bother to check if they're accurate or not.
    Yeah....No. You are a lowlife scumbag. You have no integrity. People like you will never change. They either end up dead or broke and alone eventually.
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  16. #16
    hehfest
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    Quote Originally Posted by cybersharp View Post
    Some folks -- who think they're streetwise, and therefore COOL -- would answer your opinion
    by saying that old Biblical quote:

    "IF HE HAD NOT WANTED THEM SHEARED, HE WOULD NOT HAVE MADE THEM SHEEP."

    But those people are just scumbags too. Just like the OP.

    Yeah man. That's about as immoral in the gambling world it gets. Why wouldn't you just try to get their picks and fade then do this? Or, take their picks and tell them don't worry about the losses Uncle Bob, I hit a huge jackpot at the casino. Make some kind story up where you need not have them pay. If I were you I'd pay them back every penny they lost to you, tell them "I'm a piece of shit", apologize for being a piece of shit, and go buy them dinner at a 5 star restaurant.

  17. #17
    mtneer1212
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    Quote Originally Posted by jose21_us View Post
    My opinion is your a scumbag...
    The OP is a scumbag indeed. How dare he not charge a vig! It is immoral to let a sucker keep his money, blood or no blood.
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  18. #18
    TonyTone
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    How’s that saying go.... with family like this, who needs friends? Or is it with friends yadda yadda something something enemies...? Either way, your family member may be a fish but you are definitely a piece of shit.

  19. #19
    TonyTone
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    You’re gonna get your fingers broke one day. Book me on that, I’ll take over 4.5.

  20. #20
    mjsuax13
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    OP, PM me. Iíll bury your ass this NFL season with real spreads. Scumbag.

  21. #21
    EasyCover
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    Quote Originally Posted by MinisterEric View Post
    I have a family member that I have been taking bets with for years and I've made literally thousands. We don't charge vig, but I constantly move the lines in my favor and he rarely fails to bite. We're talking the typical "chalk and the over" fish. So my question is, in the NFL, say Team A is listed at -7, and I move it to -9. How much are those points "worth" by percentage? My estimation is one point should be worth about 2% in my favor taking a 50/50 bet and moving it to 51/49, 2 points 4% 52/48, etc. Any links on this and/or help is appreciated.
    So you ask a bunch of bettors if they would help a bookie who is crooked?

  22. #22
    hehfest
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    The Nazis wouldn't of even sent you to a camp, they would've eliminated you on-site for this behavior, and it would've been 100% justified.

  23. #23
    bonzaii
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    Your a lowlife scumbag stealing from your family.
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  24. #24
    captrobey
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    Quote Originally Posted by MinisterEric View Post
    Nope. If a guy is betting 80% favorites and 80% overs, I'm already taking that into account and bumping every favorite and total when I send him lines. It's not my fault he doesn't bother to check if they're accurate or not.
    So what would happen if this guy made a $300 long shot parlay and won most of his money back? Would you pay him ?

  25. #25
    DrunkHorseplayer
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    Given the way his family member bets, he's going to lose anyway so he might as well lose it to his kin.

  26. #26
    Gaze73
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    What's fishy about overs? I know it's a popular bet in most sports but betting unders is definitely no easy money. Many have tried, and then they reverted to betting overs again. Especially in basketball, OT almost guarantees a loss for the under.

  27. #27
    TheLock
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    Imagine creating a thread asking for assistance in bending a family member over.

  28. #28
    cashin81
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    Nah hes had him bent over for years, but this isnt enough.

    He is basically asking for a finishing move/fatality.

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