[Bsims]

I notice lots of discussions about wagering on simulated games in the bitcoin forum. I'd tread lightly. Just because the game is between the Bears and the Packers doesn't mean you should use the same handicapping techniques that you would use in a real life match up.

First, remember, you are betting on the output of a computer program. You don't know if it mimicks real life very well.

Second, the players are represented by numerical ratings. You don't know how many ratings are involved, or how accurately they represent the player skills.

Otherwise, enjoy throwing darts at these.

[Crusherrr]

I notice lots of discussions about wagering on simulated games in the bitcoin forum. I'd tread lightly. Just because the game is between the Bears and the Packers doesn't mean you should use the same handicapping techniques that you would use in a real life match up.
First, remember, you are betting on the output of a computer program. You don't know if it mimicks real life very well.

Second, the players are represented by numerical ratings. You don't know how many ratings are involved, or how accurately they represent the player skills.

Otherwise, enjoy throwing darts at these.

I've found taking the points to be a pretty good "system".

I've played games like NBA 2k and Madden and everytime I'm stomping my 9 year old at Madden he starts causing miracle fumbles and interceptions to bring the game back close. It's a video game, it's meant to be fun, but it's obvious to me at least that it's almost setup to keep the game close for both players as much as possible.

Sites can also tweak settings to make teams on a more equal playing ground among other things. I'd thread carefully with any sim game.

[bonzaii]

I've found taking the points to be a pretty good "system".

I've played games like NBA 2k and Madden and everytime I'm stomping my 9 year old at Madden he starts causing miracle fumbles and interceptions to bring the game back close. It's a video game, it's meant to be fun, but it's obvious to me at least that it's almost setup to keep the game close for both players as much as possible.

Sites can also tweak settings to make teams on a more equal playing ground among other things. I'd thread carefully with any sim game.

No real need for that unless a site wants to be real desperate and scummy. Most of the madden teams are pretty equal talent wise except the elite teams and the bottom feeders like the Dolphins and Bungles.

[Bsims]

It's a video game, it's meant to be fun, but it's obvious to me at least that it's almost setup to keep the game close for both players as much as possible.
Sites can also tweak settings to make teams on a more equal playing ground among other things. I'd thread carefully with any sim game.

That's precisely my point. Thanks!

[littlekona]

I've found taking the points to be a pretty good "system".

I've played games like NBA 2k and Madden and everytime I'm stomping my 9 year old at Madden he starts causing miracle fumbles and interceptions to bring the game back close. It's a video game, it's meant to be fun, but it's obvious to me at least that it's almost setup to keep the game close for both players as much as possible.

Sites can also tweak settings to make teams on a more equal playing ground among other things. I'd thread carefully with any sim game.

The games Esp in NBA 2k20 via mybookie lots of huge blowouts Favs winning by 40 is not out of norm and +12 Dogs winning by 20...If you bet the ML on dogs you would be doing very well. Also the books have been getting killed so far

[littlekona]

today's Books line and then Fairlay's last column

NFL Madden SIM 4-11 9am CT Browns@Bengals twitch.tv/livefootballsims	Browns -10.5	Bengals +10.5	+10
NBA 2K20 SIM 4-11 12pm CT Lakers@Celtics twitch.tv/primetimeactionnba	Lakers -9	Celtics +9	+4.5
NFL Madden SIM 4-11 12pm CT Bills@Giants twitch.tv/livefootballsims	Bills -3.5	Giants +3.5	+4.5
NFL Madden SIM 4-11 12pm CT Falcons@Bears twitch.tv/betonlinemadden	Falcons +2	Bears -2	-1.5
NFL Madden SIM 4-11 12pm CT Falcons@Bears twitch.tv/betonlinemadden	Over 45.5	Under 45.5	48.5
NFL Madden SIM 4-11 2pm CT Patriots@Chargers twitch.tv/primetimeaction	Patriots -4	Chargers +4	+3
NFL Madden SIM 4-11 2pm CT Patriots@Chargers twitch.tv/primetimeaction	Over 42	Under 42	41
MLB The Show 4-11 2pm CT Yankees(Cole)@Red Sox(Rodriguez) twitch.tv/primetimeactionmlb	Yankees -1.5	Red Sox +1.5	+1.5
MLB The Show 4-11 2pm CT Yankees(Cole)@Red Sox(Rodriguez) twitch.tv/primetimeactionmlb	Over 9	Under 9	9
NFL Madden SIM 4-11 3pm CT Raiders@Rams twitch.tv/betonlinemadden	Raiders +6.5	Rams -6.5	-5
NFL Madden SIM 4-11 3pm CT Raiders@Rams twitch.tv/betonlinemadden	Over 50	Under 50	52
NFL Madden SIM 4-11 3pm CT Cowboys@Cardinals twitch.tv/livefootballsims	Cowboys -9.5	Cardinals +9.5	+10.5
NFL Madden SIM 4-11 4pm CT Patriots@Steelers twitch.tv/primetimeaction	Patriots -2	Steelers +2	+2
NFL Madden SIM 4-11 4pm CT Patriots@Steelers twitch.tv/primetimeaction	Over 40	Under 40	41
MLB The Show 4-11 4pm CT Red Sox(Sale)@Yankees(Tanaka) twitch.tv/primetimeactionmlb	Red Sox +118	Yankees -138	-138
MLB The Show 4-11 4pm CT Red Sox(Sale)@Yankees(Tanaka) twitch.tv/primetimeactionmlb	Over 9.5	Under 9.5	9.5
MLB The Show 4-11 6pm CT Yankees(German)@Red Sox(Eovaldi) twitch.tv/primetimeactionmlb	Yankees -1.5	Red Sox +1.5	+1.5
MLB The Show 4-11 6pm CT Yankees(German)@Red Sox(Eovaldi) twitch.tv/primetimeactionmlb	Over 11	Under 11	11
NFL Madden SIM 4-11 6pm CT Patriots@Eagles twitch.tv/livefootballsims	Patriots -2	Eagles +2	+3.5
NFL Madden SIM 4-11 6pm CT Packers@Patriots twitch.tv/primetimeaction	Packers +3	Patriots -3	-3
NFL Madden SIM 4-11 6pm CT Packers@Patriots twitch.tv/primetimeaction	Over 44.5	Under 44.5	46
NFL Madden SIM 4-11 7pm CT Saints@Lions twitch.tv/betonlinemadden	Saints -10	Lions +10	+8.5
NFL Madden SIM 4-11 7pm CT Saints@Lions twitch.tv/betonlinemadden	Over 54	Under 54	57
NFL Madden SIM 4-11 8pm CT Saints@Patriots twitch.tv/primetimeaction	Saints -1	Patriots +1	+2.5
NFL Madden SIM 4-11 8pm CT Saints@Patriots twitch.tv/primetimeaction	Over 45.5	Under 45.5	45.5
NFL Madden SIM 4-11 9pm CT Ravens@Saints twitch.tv/livefootballsims	Ravens PICK	Saints PICK	+2.5

[trytrytry]

daily SBR betpionts action here on SIMS. betpoints forum is the place.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...aker-cris.html

[kofsports]

I agree @BSims...you don't know what the program will do. You also can't validate that the ratings of the players haven't been tampered with.

[trytrytry]

daily SBR betpionts action here on SIMS. betpoints forum is the place.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...maker-cri.html

[bitcoinLuke]

I can't believe anyone would bet on these. Degenerates, smh

[FullStrength]

Duh......

[FullStrength]

It's books offering us a chance to wager on something other than soccer or table tennis. How great is that? Of course don't bet a huge amount.

[littlekona]

I can't believe anyone would bet on these. Degenerates, smh

then don't participate or comment. Plenty of people bet and some who do simulations and forecast are doing well. E sports is huge and one can argue that is even more rigged BUT many people bet and do very well at that too. Ask market makers like Danshan how he is doing on esports and SIMS and he will tell you guys are crushing him some days. Its all in good fun and I know many guys that treat SIMS like any NFL Sunday they are called recreational gamblers. That said we expect fairness from the books and so far the top tier ones like Bookmaker, BOL, Bovada have shown integrity while others like MyBookie have shown they can not be trusted as usual

[GimpedMaster]

I love sims, killing it with them currently and just love having options every single day, vs NFL season where you have only one big day of action...

[littlekona]

I love sims, killing it with them currently and just love having options every single day, vs NFL season where you have only one big day of action...

the SIMS are here to stay. Bookmaker sent me a survey about them and by the questions they asked it will be here for good and even during the NFL season probably SIM games in AM or PM same day as REAL SPORTS .....Im with you they are fun

[pretentiousGuy]

What stops them from rigging these sims?

[littlekona]

What stops them from rigging these sims?

the rigged ones are my FAV!!! way +EV

[HomeRun35]

I notice lots of discussions about wagering on simulated games in the bitcoin forum. I'd tread lightly. Just because the game is between the Bears and the Packers doesn't mean you should use the same handicapping techniques that you would use in a real life match up.

Can't speak for football but most MLB sim lines are closing very close to where they would be in real life

[lonegambler23]

best way to bet sims is fade it entirely

[yahoonino]

dont like it ,,i bet a little ,, but no more,,,it so frustrating ,on 4 down and inches they never goin for it on the opponent 35 yard line,,,if got the over and you need a field goal ,they fumble on the 5 yard line,,they seem like they know where people money are,

[Bsims]

dont like it ,,i bet a little ,, but no more,,,it so frustrating ,on 4 down and inches they never goin for it on the opponent 35 yard line,,,if got the over and you need a field goal ,they fumble on the 5 yard line,,they seem like they know where people money are,

This is part of the problem that prompted my original post. There are lots of questions about these sims. In this case, how are the coaching decisions made? What type of factors influence the decisions made. It's unknown to anyone trying to handicap and event.

[Bsims]

Here's a more worrisome issue. The bookmaker running the sims can run it 10,000 times or so before running the one time you would bet on. They would know the likely scores distribution. With that, they could set a perfectly efficient line. In that case, no one could handicap the event. You might as well put your money on a number in roulette. No brains useful here.

[littlekona]

SIMS
blue actualred expected

[littlekona]

Via Danshan Stat's

1314 bets on Madden 54% actual win percentageno vig assuming standard vig54.9% implied probabilityI dont know how they do it but man hats off

[Bsims]

I don't understand the graph. What are the axis values? What does the blue and red lines represent? Where does the data come from?

[littlekona]

1134(more now) is the number of games Fairlay booked from the major SIM book sites like bookmaker-bovada. Shows that the books lines are pretty damn good and getting even better and pretty much as good as real sports

[GimpedMaster]

Here's a more worrisome issue. The bookmaker running the sims can run it 10,000 times or so before running the one time you would bet on. They would know the likely scores distribution. With that, they could set a perfectly efficient line. In that case, no one could handicap the event. You might as well put your money on a number in roulette. No brains useful here.

I’m up 30k this month playing sims and capping to the best of my ability. So it’s just pure luck you’re saying? I think it’s more than that, I’m just not this lucky.

[littlekona]

I’m up 30k this month playing sims and capping to the best of my ability. So it’s just pure luck you’re saying? I think it’s more than that, I’m just not this lucky.

That is very good Conrats! and I agree 100%..Guys like Danshan too can model these games with great success...I am up about 2K but smaller bets. If you use Bookmaker-5Dimes-Fairlay even if limited you can still get some decent amounts

[HeeeHAWWWW]

What stops them from rigging these sims?

There's basically no need to, like with a casino. Since they built the simulation and control the variables, they know exactly what % probability every event is. They're not like real sports where punters can find an edge through better information, assessment or modelling.

[PhillipKessel]

What stops them from rigging these sims?

Also -115/-115

[juicername]

What stops them from rigging these sims?

One did and got hit hard once bettors figured out how they rigged it. They took down their sports sims offers and removed their stream channel a week or so ago.

[Bsims]

There's basically no need to, like with a casino. Since they built the simulation and control the variables, they know exactly what % probability every event is. They're not like real sports where punters can find an edge through better information, assessment or modelling.

That's basically my point. The guy who is up 30K is quite frankly, lucky.

[GimpedMaster]

That's basically my point. The guy who is up 30K is quite frankly, lucky.

I agree that I'm lucky, there are still random bounces of a fumble and last minute interceptions that have gone my way.

But that being said, i'm consistently following the same rules and continually winning each week. The thing about the simulations is that its a clean slate every game. There are no trends, no changes of offensive coordinators etc.

IIf you just stay consistent on who you bet, the simulation will continue to output similar results over the course of time.

It's square and chalky, but focusing on moneyline favorites while cherry picking certain underdogs just keeps working over and over.

[pretentiousGuy]

That's basically my point. The guy who is up 30K is quite frankly, lucky.

We're all lucky to be in a time where we can win money from our homes, wearing only underwear.

[HomeRun35]

One did and got hit hard once bettors figured out how they rigged it. They took down their sports sims offers and removed their stream channel a week or so ago.

Which stream/book was this?

That is very good Conrats! and I agree 100%..Guys like Danshan too can model these games with great success...I am up about 2K but smaller bets. If you use Bookmaker-5Dimes-Fairlay even if limited you can still get some decent amounts

Does the guy taking sims on FL do higher maxes for NFL sims? His MLB sim maxes are 150