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Probability: why -335 to -110 boost is sucker bet
or is it?
was on Rivers sportsbook page and and this Odds Boost caught my eye.
Michigan OR Ohio St OR Oregon to lose
boosted from -335 to -110
checked the MLs at Rivers and they were as follows:
Mich 265/215
OSU 420/330
Oregon 560/420
do you pass on this one or unload on it?
Ignoring results and just seeing this, so can only use closing lines, the middle / removing vig of the Pinnacle Moneylines for those three games:
-283 Mich, -501 OSU (soft line there above), -541 Oregon. Parlayed together, $100 risk pays $92 risk, right around -108. Meaning one losing would be approximately +108.
Answer would be pass, assuming moneyline markets are efficient, vig split equally, and no bias towards one side.
Last edited by eaglesfan371; 02-27-20 at 09:31 PM.
i don't mind that answer at all eagle
was hoping we would get a little more interest that would create the need for lengthy detailed math explosion of what you laid out above. but seeing as everyone viewing this thread must already be successful bettors with a solid foundation in probability we can let it die.
nice work on the reply sir.
why they even bother to do these "boost"?
i'm guessing twofold:Originally Posted by Vyasports
1. to separate unsophisticated bettors from the money
2. increase action and build loyalty
some of the 'boosts' are good. they are few and far between, but they keep me going back everyday to check for ones that i discern as being +EV or ones that afford at least a 5% Arb.
Majority are a bunch of crazy props that they slap a number on, cross it out then offer a typical 5-7% house edge on. You have no idea how to price it and it appeals to rec bettors.
Very rarely are the “price boosts” good. Sure, might be slightly better odds but more often than not, still -EV. Occasionally they’ll offer +EV props, you’ll notice the limits are lowest on these though ($25-$50)
but then every once in a while you come across a gold plated boost
FD had Curry over 17.5 points boosted to +110 last night. only other place i saw 17.5 had the over at -160.
overall though Eagle is right. they do a great job of selling the boost as being a great way to up your profits, but most are on some nonsense parlay that even with the boost isn't paying you near true odds. but if you remain disciplined and only hit those ones the market deems +EV, should make a small profit long term. easy way to add a few percent to the BR.
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