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Couple questions about NBA betting
What is usually the best month to start betting on the NBA? Is it best to avoid the first couple of months of the season?
What is the probability of winning and showing a profit for the season by only betting against teams that are playing a back to back?
Last edited by Swaggy P; 02-11-20 at 10:16 PM.
After the All Star Break is a good time...you know the injuries, the players have had 5-6 days of rest (most). It is also the playoff push for alot of teams.
https://killersports.com/nba/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
season > 2014 and rest = 0 and o:rest > 1
SU: 163-242 (-3.08, 40.2%) ATS: 190-205-10 (0.37, 48.1%) avg line: 3.5 O/U: 218-181-6 (1.82, 54.6%) avg total: 213.2
season > 2014 and rest = 0 and o:rest > 1 and o:rest < 4 and ... NOT EXACTLY WHY I'D EXCLUDE 4+ other than it makes the win rate better.
games ATS
W - L- P (marg, %win)Avg Line OU
W - L- P (marg, %over)Avg Total SU
W - L (marg, %win)SDQL 110 51-56-3 (-0.90, 47.7%) -0.4 59-50-1 (1.71, 54.1%) 213.8 56-54 (-0.50, 50.9%) site = home 276 126-144-6 (0.41, 46.7%) 5.1 149-122-5 (1.88, 55.0%) 213.0 92-184 (-4.70, 33.3%) site = away
sorry, that post is all screwed up.... but basically fading zero rest teams playing against 2 or 3 day rest teams looks like a winner
and dog days of january, february and march look especially good
season > 2014 and rest = 0 and o:rest > 1 and o:rest < 4 and ...
games ATS
W - L- P (marg, %win)Avg Line OU
W - L- P (marg, %over)Avg Total SU
W - L (marg, %win)SDQL 68 32-35-1 (-0.17, 47.8%) 4.2 38-29-1 (4.02, 56.7%) 212.4 26-42 (-4.32, 38.2%) month = 1 40 13-25-2 (-1.10, 34.2%) 3.4 24-16-0 (2.73, 60.0%) 215.0 15-25 (-4.50, 37.5%) month = 2 61 25-36-0 (-0.53, 41.0%) 2.0 32-29-0 (3.12, 52.5%) 215.5 25-36 (-2.49, 41.0%) month = 3 29 15-12-2 (0.67, 55.6%) 4.2 20-9-0 (6.60, 69.0%) 213.6 9-20 (-3.55, 31.0%) month = 4 21 11-10-0 (0.19, 52.4%) 5.1 10-11-0 (-0.74, 47.6%) 217.6 6-15 (-4.90, 28.6%) month = 10 96 46-47-3 (0.61, 49.5%) 3.5 47-48-1 (-2.20, 49.5%) 212.6 39-57 (-2.86, 40.6%) month = 11 71 35-35-1 (0.30, 50.0%) 3.7 37-30-4 (2.37, 55.2%) 210.5 28-43 (-3.44, 39.4%) month = 12
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The only months to avoid betting NBA are August and September. All the other months are good ones. That's only for games. NBA season win totals are ok to bet in those summer months.Originally Posted by Swaggy P
If you bet every game anytime a team was playing back-to-back games, the chance of earning a profit for the year is very low. If you only bet against teams playing back-to-back, but only when it was a good bet, the chance of a profit would be high -- but overall profits would be lower than if you also made other bets.
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