1. #1
    SBR Drew
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    Super Bowl Best Prop Bets ...add here

    I like Kittle over the 5.5 receptions and over 73.5 yards. Thin since he blocked the whole game lat week he will be ready to post high numbers on Sunday.

    If any of you guys have good props post them here so we can brainstorm on winners.

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  2. #2
    Ardy
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    SB,

    Just a thought on what you noted.

    Last week SF went heavy on the running game (wisely too, based on results), ended up throwing - what? - only three passes? (exaggerating there with '3', of course.)

    KC did a terrific job of stopping Henry. SF won't get away with run game/control the clock the same as they did vs GB. They'll have to go for more balance next week.

    Plus, KC will do what GB couldn't - pass effectively, which will open up the game, so SF won't be able to remain in the tortoise shell for four quarters like they did last week. To me, the Ov 5' looks good.

    First prop I'm buying, small $/just for fun, is total # of players to throw a pass: Over 2'.
    I think we may see a trick play (re: Andy Reid.)
    If there's no trick play, I can always root for one of the QB's to get sacked hard and have to miss a play or two. This prop is an easier/more fun bet when one of the QB's is a I guy I dislike, I don't have to feel too bad rooting for him to get hurt. (Not seriously hurt of course, just enough to KO him for the game, I'm not a sadist, just a guy trying to beat the book, so, maybe a twisted ankle, or broken pinkie, a bad case of the runs? I'm easy, I'll take whatever I can get.)
    Last edited by Ardy; 01-24-20 at 09:17 PM.

  3. #3
    SBR Drew
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    Nice observations. Do you have anything else prop wise?

    I was looking at the 2 point conversion (YES) prop also and Will there be a Defensive /Special teams TD scored (YES)

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  4. #4
    pologq
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    Quote Originally Posted by SBR Drew View Post
    Nice observations. Do you have anything else prop wise?

    I was looking at the 2 point conversion (YES) prop also and Will there be a Defensive /Special teams TD scored (YES)
    the 2 pt conversion successfully done has a lot of value for its current price

  5. #5
    SBR Drew
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    Quote Originally Posted by pologq View Post
    the 2 pt conversion successfully done has a lot of value for its current price

    And it seems more of the teams use the opportunity these days...

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  6. #6
    cincinnatikid513
    yo
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    William Hill is offering 9,999-1 odds on the Chiefs scoring exactly four points. No team in the Super Bowl era has ever finished with exactly four points, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

    At sportsbook PointsBet, Shanahan is 100-1 to blow another 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl. Shanahan was the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons when they squandered a 28-3 lead to the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LI.

    The SuperBook will even let you bet on whether LeBron James will score more points against the Sacramento Kings on Feb. 1 than Mahomes will have completions in the Super Bowl. Mahomes is favored by 1.5 completions.

    https://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/i...lows-28-3-lead
    175 pts

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  7. #7
    Ardy
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    "Do you have anything else prop wise?"

    SBR Drew - Not for investment bets, but I'll have a few for TV/fun. I made prop #'s for years, at the place most other books copy from, the place that had the slogan, "Most Props on the Planet." Dive hotel, but the best book on the strip. This is how I know when people say "That's a trap bet" they don't know what they're talking about. Each week in the NFL we put up our lines, after the the late games ended, first in the world, (sometimes CRIS beat us.) In HUNDREDS of Sunday meetings, I never once heard anyone say "Let's make the number X, to fool the public into betting team A." It was not part of the conversation/debates/fight we had trying to settle on the correct number to hang on the board.

    I won't buy any for investments, but for TV fun/small $, I'll have the one mentioned above, and "Will there be a 1 yd scores Y or N?" Yes
    Waiting for 5D to hang the "Total # of penalties, both teams", may have a play there depending what # they put up.

    I'll probably also have a fade or two, based on ridiculous "CAN'T MISS/LOCK OF MY LIFETIME" type of scammer picks and general public posts I find on game day.

    Good luck to you with whatever you buy on the big game.



  8. #8
    SBR Drew
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    good stuff thanks!

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  9. #9
    DoctorStrong
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    Raheem Mostert MVP +550
    Mahomes under 41 yards rushing
    Garoppolo under 240 yds passing

    gl


  10. #10
    Buckandadime
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    Largest lead UNDER 16.5-110...

  11. #11
    Ardy
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    Buck&adime,

    Regarding your icon pic, a little (some would say "VERY little") humor for you.

    Charles Schultz was well known for eating breakfast at the same local cafe every morning, and being agreeable to talking with and signing autographs for fans who stopped by his table.

    Your pic reminds me of one I saw years ago, Lucy getting banged by the whole gang - Snoopy dogging her, Peppermint Patty doing a deep dive, Schroeder getting head, Charlie Brown looking cucked in the background, even Linus was in on the action.

    I thought, if I was at the cafe, I'd get on line, and when it was my turn, I'd say, "Mr. Schultz, big fan, big fan. Will you autograph my Peanuts picture?"
    "Sure son, I'll be happy to."
    Then I'd hand him the Lucy cartoon and see if he a) attacked me or b) had a heart attack.
    Either way - viral video!

    (Drew - sorry for digressing from the prop bets post. For penance I'll post another prop when I buy it.)
    Last edited by Ardy; 01-27-20 at 05:51 PM.

  12. #12
    Noles1992
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    JIMMY G throw an int?

  13. #13
    agendaman
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    game total-under-sf defense too good

  14. #14
    kcburg
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    Chiefs always defer when they win the toss..any idea what the 49ers do if they win the toss..

  15. #15
    SBR Drew
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    SF may want to defer too...

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  16. #16
    Ardy
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    I bought two more yesterday, and as promised after my off topic "Peanuts" post, I'm stopping by to share if anyone is interested.

    Keeping with the theme offered by Drew when he started this thread, and the opinion I offered in post #2 (an easy call to make - SF will throw more passes this week than last), I went with two Mostert props:
    Receptions Over 1' -125
    Yards Over 10' -140

    A little high on the juice, and kind of putting my eggs in one basket, meaning if I hit one I'll likely hit both BUT if I don't, I likely drop two plays (unless Mostert's takes his one reception and busts it for > 10 yds.) But I like my chances based on how I think the SF game script goes.

    I think it will play out like the Saints game - a lot of back and forth scoring. KC has a much improved D this season, they're not a steel curtain, but they're not a mosquito net like last year, either. SF likely won't be able to go heavy on the run like last week, for two reasons:
    KC's D is better equipped to stop the run than Green Bay's was (just ask Derrick Henry; granted, Henry is more of a power back while SF's guys are more speed-oriented, but still, SF can't get away with a run-first unbalanced offense vs KC like they did in the first two rounds 42 runs/8 passes vs GB, 47/19 vs Minn.)
    AND . . .
    Reid and Mahomes will put points up, unlike LaFleur and Rogers, which will take away the run game away, especially in the second half.

    After not getting many targets early in the season, Mostert has gotten 2 or > in 7 of their last 9 games.
    In the playoffs he saw 0 vs Minn, 2 vs Green Bay.
    SF only threw the ball EIGHT times vs Green Bay, Mostert got 25% of them! (Yes, 25% equals only 2, but "25%" sounds higher, doesn't it? And two is all I need, assuming he catches them both.)
    Anyway . . .
    Andy Reid is the master at putting various, innovative screen plays into his game plan. I think that on Sunday, Shanahan is going to toss a few more screens of his own into the mix, to offset the Chief's pass rush and get the ball out of Garoppolo's hands quickly.

    More screens means higher possibility of passes to RB's. I think Mostert get's 2 or 3 of them, I just need him to catch at least two of them, and break one for a decent gain of 6 yds or more so that two combined get me Over 10'.

    So, my props are:

    Total # of players to throw a pass - Ov 2'
    One yard score, Yes or No - Yes
    Mostert receptions Ov 1'
    Mostert receiving yards Ov 10'

    These are not investments, just TV action/fun sized bets, small $, to give me some games within the game to root for. Good luck with your play this Sunday.
    Last edited by Ardy; 01-29-20 at 11:07 AM.

  17. #17
    SBR Drew
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    Opinion on Bosa or Sherman for the MVP?

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  18. #18
    maxell
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    Anytime touchdown scorer:

    Kittle even

    Samuel +140
    175 pts

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  19. #19
    sallymott
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    off setting penalties - yes
    successful 2pt conversion - yes
    missed extra pt. - yes
    largest lead under 16.5
    total players to attempt a pass over 2.5 (2 mad offensive mastermind coaches)
    opening kick off result in a touch back - no
    hail mary attempted - yes
    mahomes over 30.5 rushing yards (running for his life!)
    tease SF up to +7.5 and Under 60.5

    good luck have fun and God Bless....
    sallymott

  20. #20
    PhillipKessel
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    M. Hardman to have 120+ Receiving Yards and 1+ Touchdowns (+5500)

  21. #21
    Buckandadime
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    Has anyone seen a TOP prop?
    Gotta believe that's easy $ taking SF..

  22. #22
    Memento
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    49ers most first downs +115

  23. #23
    Ardy
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    Recap:

    Hit with the "one yard score" prop.

    Missed with "Players to throw a pass Over 2' ". Did get the play I thought might happen, early in the first quarter Shanahan called for a trick play - Garopp lateral to Debo who was supposed to pass it back to Garopp but he saw a linebacker closing in on Garopp so he pulled it down and ran it instead. Close but no cigar.

    Missed with the two Mostert props. Sucked really because he caught one pass on their first drive of the game, so Over 1' was looking great with three and half quarters left to get one more. Spent the rest of the game yelling at my TV and Garopp, "Hit your check down - HE'S OPEN!" while the QB ignored his out and threw incomplete downfield.

    Still, a lot of fun, which is what it's all about with these type of bets. A great game to watch.
    Not enough credit given to the "seasoning" the Chiefs added to their already formidable arsenal in coming from behind to win against Houston and Tennesee, which added the "We're never out of it/we can do this" intangible that served them well yesterday.

    Now the question is - can the XFL diminish the Joneses we'll feel until the real thing starts up again in August????
    (No.)
    Last edited by Ardy; 02-03-20 at 10:28 AM.

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