1. #1
    EasyTiger
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    Moneyline Favorite Limits

    In recent months I've transitioned the majority of my investments to Money Line (ML) wagers only. For me, it's much easier to quantify a potential edge (+EV) with the approach I'm using. However, this is a somewhat short term "experiment" and I haven't compiled enough data as to the limits for favorites. I'm using my quantifiable edge (or at least I hope so...lol) against the line along with Kelly Criterion to determine the wager amount. Though I would like to believe there are no limits in regards to value, I do remember reading years ago, like back in the 90's that it's just not going to happen with -220 favorites and beyond (Source: unidentifiable book on betting baseball: Gamblers Book Club Las Vegas). Or is value as it seems, value?

  2. #2
    KVB
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    Actually, I tend to disagree. There can be value at the higher moneylines because the book tends to be restricted on how high they can go because they have to manage the risk of hanging big dog numbers, which can skew their intended positions when the bettors start taking shots.

    Anymore though, the books realize this and have gone higher and higher as the bettors aren't so scared. MLB numbers, and the all time high favorites we've been seeing recently are a perfect example from must one sport.

    Tennis really stretches it out as well, in my opinion.

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  3. #3
    semibluff
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    Value is value. I'm in the UK and a big part of my gambling has been based on attacking the 1980's dogma of 3/1, 7/2, 4/1, (+300, +350, +400) odds and the inverse -300, to -400 odds offered by UK books. I almost always put odds in Excel and work to a 'true odds' 100% with all possibilities included. I'm not the World's greatest 'capper so if I have something at +120, (45.45%) i'm probably going to pass at +125, (44.44%). I want a bigger margin of error than 1%. Where I most often get that edge is at +320 and -380 where I might reasonably find UK books offering 4/1 or 1/3 with those 2 examples. If/when UK books move into the 21st century and work fully to decimal odds those opportunities will probably dry up. For now at +320 it's easier to see 3/1, and 4/1, (25% and 20%). That 5% is a pretty large difference.

    Basically don't be scared to bet in the inverse -300 to -400 range, (75% and 80%). You're not going to get rich quick but there are opportunities to grow your bankroll.

  4. #4
    SBR Drew
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    Moneyline bets are not as sexy as all of the bet types we see these days..but the ml wager certainly is the safest way if you can find value compared to the market.

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  5. #5
    BigdaddyQH
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    Two weeks ago I took Kansas City +325 and San Francisco +300. I cannot lose. I am going to make either $100 or $125 per $200.00 wagered. That is the advantage of the Money Line. No one knew what the eventual Superbowl line would be. With the ML, your wager is set well before the final line isw set and you know what you are winning if you get that far.

  6. #6
    mjsuax13
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    Two weeks ago I took Kansas City +325 and San Francisco +300. I cannot lose. I am going to make either $100 or $125 per $200.00 wagered. That is the advantage of the Money Line. No one knew what the eventual Superbowl line would be. With the ML, your wager is set well before the final line isw set and you know what you are winning if you get that far.
    Yeah right.

  7. #7
    chilidog
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    Two weeks ago I took Kansas City +325 and San Francisco +300. I cannot lose. I am going to make either $100 or $125 per $200.00 wagered. That is the advantage of the Money Line. No one knew what the eventual Superbowl line would be. With the ML, your wager is set well before the final line isw set and you know what you are winning if you get that far.
    This guy lies so much. Bigdaddy ain't big time at all. He's a small-timer that bets chump change. Spreadsheets record are horrible (that's why he deletes them all the time). He drops out of every challenge issued because he sucks so bad. That's why mods keep him around - he's a bigger joke than jjgold.

  8. #8
    gojetsgomoxies
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    betting big mlb faves has been very successful since 2013...

    of course, the 2 biggest ml line games of the year last year (and all-time as per the time it's been tracked) LOST... but i think all kinds of other games hitting made up for it.

    specifically it's been play all -170 and bigger favorite MLB. personally, i wouldn't play beyond about -250........ between -140 and -170 was great last year, but not earlier years.

  9. #9
    semibluff
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    Two weeks ago I took Kansas City +325 and San Francisco +300. I cannot lose. I am going to make either $100 or $125 per $200.00 wagered. That is the advantage of the Money Line. No one knew what the eventual Superbowl line would be. With the ML, your wager is set well before the final line isw set and you know what you are winning if you get that far.
    Congrats. Picking value winners is the game and it isn't easy. You've invested $200 and guaranteed a return of $400 or $425 at +100 or +112.5. I have to say you took slightly below market odds. The 49ers were generally +330 and the Chiefs were +350. The Ravens were priced at +100. If I had been considering both the 49ers and Chiefs I would have preferred to just bet against the Ravens on the exchanges at -125 or -130. I would have preferred all 7 other options at a reduced price to picking just 2 at almost the same odds. Alternatively I would have bet just the 3 other AFC teams and then bet the NFC Super Bowl finalist for the same overall stakes. It would have been messy and harder to control a specific rate of return but there would have been less juice to contend with. Anyway, congrats on the win.

  10. #10
    Barrakuda
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    Quote Originally Posted by gojetsgomoxies View Post
    betting big mlb faves has been very successful since 2013...

    of course, the 2 biggest ml line games of the year last year (and all-time as per the time it's been tracked) LOST... but i think all kinds of other games hitting made up for it.

    specifically it's been play all -170 and bigger favorite MLB. personally, i wouldn't play beyond about -250........ between -140 and -170 was great last year, but not earlier years.
    Imagine what people were saying in 2012..

  11. #11
    EasyTiger
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    What I'm gathering from the feedback is that value is value no matter the price. However, the only way that I can find out is continuing to track my wagers over the long haul. So far, so good but we all know how that can go....only time will tell.

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