[coolguy73739]

Betting for last 6 years but still can't figure out whats easier and more likely to win?
Is it Point Spread or Game Totals for Bettors and Bookmakers alike?
I have tried ML, Totals and Spread in that order but not sure whats the best way of doing it.
I was a hardcore believer that Point Spread is the toughest to beat as compared to Game total but its all reversed now. For some time, I have a strong feeling that Game Total points is toughest to guess an estimation for Bettors and Bookies alike.
I also believe Point Spread decides the game total or is it other way round?
Any valuable insight will be appreciated.

[JohnGalt2341]

Over/Unders have always been easier for me but if you are talking about the Closing Lines, I would say they are about equal. Below are the League Trends from Covers from last years NBA season. As you can see, both the spreads and the totals are very sharp.
AGAINST THE SPREAD TRENDS (ATS)

Category	Record	Percent
Away Teams	638-655-19	49.34%
Home Teams	655-638-19	50.66%
Favorites	648-645-19	50.12%
Dogs	645-648-19	49.88%
Away Favorites	215-222-6	49.20%
Away Dogs	423-433-13	49.42%
Home Favorites	433-423-13	50.58%
Home Dogs	222-215-6	50.80%

OVER VS. UNDER TRENDS

Category	Overs	Percent	Unders	Percent
Overtime Games	66	92.96%	5	7.04%
Non-Overtime Games	586	47.72%	642	52.28%
All Games	652	50.19%	647	49.81%

[coolguy73739]

Thanks for the info.. much appreciated..
I'm not talking abt Closing line shit, they are fake anyways.. but just the variance level of both bets winning for you..
For some games , it's easier to bet spread than total but for others it's other way around..
E.g., today's WNBA game, taking Sun spread of -11 points against Wings looks much cooler as compared to taking a total line of 155 points which looks inflated and fake anyways.. thoughts?

[Waterstpub87]

Either is pretty close to 50 to 50. If you are actually winning, it is easier to beat totals. This is because less people bet them, so they are less efficient.

[coolguy73739]

if its easier to beat totals, more people should bet on them , right ?

[dlowilly]

Easiest to beat in the long run is moneyline underdogs. Statistics back it up and it makes sense. There are usually some significant differences across books on moneyline bets so you can choose the best odds, plus after an opening line the numbers are market driven. You get tons of people betting -400 and -500 favs straight up or in parlays, while bets on +400 and +500 underdogs is much rarer.

Problem is, it's a stressful and maddening way to gamble and most don't have the stomach for it compared to the thin edge it has.

[Waterstpub87]

if its easier to beat totals, more people should bet on them , right ?

They should. But the square money wants to bet the sides, and the limits are much lower.

[KVB]

They should. But the square money wants to bet the sides, and the limits are much lower.

Exactly.

The limits, the risk management, tell the whole the story, or most of it.

[semibluff]

Limits for totals are generally lower because the market is smaller and more unpredictable. It doesn't make it easier to beat the majority of lines over a 256 game season but there's likely to be a higher error rate in sportsbook posted totals lines that a specialist could exploit.

[JohnGalt2341]

if its easier to beat totals, more people should bet on them , right ?

They should. But the square money wants to bet the sides, and the limits are much lower.

I agree with Waterstpub. To further the point... if you are REALLY interested in making money in sports betting, my advice is to figure out what the sportsbooks aren't good at. First figure out what they aren't good at, and then dedicate a fair amount of time to becoming good at what the sportsbooks aren't good at. I'll give you a hint... it's not game totals and it's not point spreads. Generally, the sportsbooks are weakest at the things where they see the least amount of action. Foolishly, most people try to beat the sportsbooks at what they are best at. That's not going to happen for most people.

Think of it like this... if Garry Kasparov offered you a million dollars if you could beat him in either a game of Chess or a game of Checkers... what game would you choose to play him in? Sports betting isn't that much different. You are not required to play them in what they are best at. Find their weakness and then exploit it.

[deltgen]

Generally, the sportsbooks are weakest at the things where they see the least amount of action.

Galt--you gave us a hint but didn't say what the books aren't good at. I'm inclined to agree it's about where there is less action and to me that means in sports like college basketball to concentrate on the mid-major conferences. That is absolutely where I make money during the college BB season. I still wager on the big name conference teams, but... I'm just like most, it's a dart throw. Is betting on the lesser conferences (where there is absolutely less action) what you had in mind?

[coolguy73739]

You want me to believe bookies are weak at something?
My understanding is they cover all grey areas before putting their numbers in open market be it ML, spread totals or props..
Hard to believe they could be weak at something everyday.. they might be off some days here and there but not on regular basis is what I feel..
But then again I might be wrong hence this thread..

[Waterstpub87]

You want me to believe bookies are weak at something?
My understanding is they cover all grey areas before putting their numbers in open market be it ML, spread totals or props..
Hard to believe they could be weak at something everyday.. they might be off some days here and there but not on regular basis is what I feel..
But then again I might be wrong hence this thread..

Bookies are weak at alot of things. They are weak at props. They are weak at international stuff, meaning like Japanese baseball. Weaker at golf. Supposedly, they are weak at MMA ( have no idea because I dont bet it, but apparently books stop you from parlaying it, which indicates they are trying to minimize risk)

Beat them on college basketball totals, and see how quick your account gets closed. Also, look at how many games you could have beaten the close on everyday.

If bookies were good at everything, no one would ever be getting accounts limited or closed. But they do, meaning there is advantage to be had. Johngalt is completely correct. Much easier to be props and niche things like NCAA lacrosse or something. Problem is that if that is your only action, they are pretty quick to put the screws to you.

[JohnGalt2341]

Galt--you gave us a hint but didn't say what the books aren't good at. I'm inclined to agree it's about where there is less action and to me that means in sports like college basketball to concentrate on the mid-major conferences. That is absolutely where I make money during the college BB season. I still wager on the big name conference teams, but... I'm just like most, it's a dart throw. Is betting on the lesser conferences (where there is absolutely less action) what you had in mind?

Well, that's not exactly what I do but that might work as well. If you play at multiple Sportsbooks you can often find prices that don't match. For instance, one book might have -130 and +100 and another book might have +100 and -130. This means collectively that there is no juice. It's almost certain that one of the books is off. You just have to figure out which one. Of course, that doesn't guarantee that you will win but with bets like these you can basically play for free even if you don't know what you are doing as long as there is no juice. The more obscure the play the better. On the obscure stuff... most books don't know what the sharp line is supposed to be. I should mention... most books don't offer the obscure stuff to begin with. But 5Dimes has plenty of obscure stuff. My feeling is... anyone that hasn't been limited by 5Dimes isn't trying very hard. Go to 5Dimes and look at all the different bets they are offering for Thursday night's football game alone... I can assure you that not all of those lines are sharp.

Try this with a friend... have him make an obscure play at 5Dimes... you know what will happen? The line will move, even if he bets a little it will likely move. It won't just move for him, it will also move for you. If it moves enough it's no longer sharp, and maybe it wasn't even sharp to begin with. On the other hand... if you bet on the point spread... it takes A LOT of money to move the line... I don't think it's even possible to move a point spread on 5Dimes because of their limits. But with their obscure stuff it's a different story. These lines are easy to move because they aren't sharp. And when lines are easy to move, they are easy to beat.

Most sports bettors decide what they are going to bet on before they even see the price... this is a HUGE mistake. The price is EVERYTHING. You just have to figure out what the price should actually be. If you know you are getting a good deal... make the play. It's like finding a Honus Wagner rookie card at a thrift store... maybe you had no intention of buying a baseball card that day... but if you found it for $10 you'd be foolish to pass it up. For me sportsbetting is all about finding deals. 5Dimes has low limits on me so I don't mind passing on this information. Most people still won't care, they probably won't even believe me. They would rather bet on the game itself because they find it more exciting. For me, I'd rather make money.

[JohnGalt2341]

Bookies are weak at alot of things. They are weak at props. They are weak at international stuff, meaning like Japanese baseball. Weaker at golf. Supposedly, they are weak at MMA ( have no idea because I dont bet it, but apparently books stop you from parlaying it, which indicates they are trying to minimize risk)

Beat them on college basketball totals, and see how quick your account gets closed. Also, look at how many games you could have beaten the close on everyday.

If bookies were good at everything, no one would ever be getting accounts limited or closed. But they do, meaning there is advantage to be had. Johngalt is completely correct. Much easier to be props and niche things like NCAA lacrosse or something. Problem is that if that is your only action, they are pretty quick to put the screws to you.

I got into Sportsbetting because I was an MMA nut back in the day. The lines were all over the place. It was hilarious. I made a killing. I thought I could beat the books at everything back then. I soon realized... the books were good at most other things. I got killed at all the mainstream sports. So I started focusing only on the things that the books weren't good at. I haven't bet MMA in a long time but when I first started off the books were terrible. When the UFC started getting popular the lines became a lot sharper. There was a guy named Nick something... can't think of his last name. SBR used to interview him. That guy was sharp! I think he was setting a lot of the MMA openers for a while but he definitely wasn't when I first started betting on it. I stopped betting MMA once it became popular and the lines became sharper. I don't know how sharp the MMA lines are these days as but I'd be shocked if they are as bad as they were back in the day.

[Waterstpub87]

It might have been you at some point who said it, could have been years ago, and I went " that makes sense" and moved on. I'm a stat guy, and MMA is a sport of small sample sizes. So I haven't really gotten into. Have a long list of stuff to work on prior, but who knows, one day perhaps.

[coolguy73739]

What I understand so far is if bookies are weak at something, they will limit you on that bet. Pinny dont limit anyone and are the sharpest bookmakers and most of the bookies copy their numbers so this whole point of bookies weak at something is more or less eliminated and we are back to square one, which bet is the most profitable and beatable..
As an example, I bet Sun spread -11.5 today in WNBA but was of the opinion that Total points will be under 155 but they scored 174.
Not sure whether bookies were also trying to balance book on totals ( equal actions on both sides of 155 or took a position of going UNDER and lost since total went 174, who can tell ?)

[Waterstpub87]

And the limits for props are probably like 100 dollars. Vs the limits for a NFL game an hour before kickoff of like 50,000.

[JohnGalt2341]

And the limits for props are probably like 100 dollars. Vs the limits for a NFL game an hour before kickoff of like 50,000.

I think for 5Dimes it is 100 if you haven't been limited. But at other sites like BetOnline or YouWager among others... you can bet $500 on their Player Props.

[Waterstpub87]

I think for 5Dimes it is 100 if you haven't been limited. But at other sites like BetOnline or YouWager among others... you can bet $500 on their Player Props.

More familar with ww and heritage. Limited to 50 on heritage, and 100 on ww. As of last week, I can no longer play at betonline.

[JohnGalt2341]

More familar with ww and heritage. Limited to 50 on heritage, and 100 on ww. As of last week, I can no longer play at betonline.

BetOnline? Wow! You must have cleaned their clocks. They never put limits on me. But Heritage put me down to $1 on Props. WagerWeb still lets me play $100 on their Props.

[Waterstpub87]

BetOnline? Wow! You must have cleaned their clocks. They never put limits on me. But Heritage put me down to $1 on Props. WagerWeb still lets me play $100 on their Props.

I wish that was the case. Unfortunately, my state is now on their banned list.

[coolguy73739]

todays wnba game aces vs dream: classic case of fake and inflated lines.. how can you ever win at such manipulated odds ?
fav spread of -11 and game total of 162.5 looked fake from the word Go.. whoever talks abt BTCL.. crazy!