Curious is anyone here knows much about the use of monte carlo game simulations in Excel.
Playing a game 10,000 times sounds good but what data would be useful to simulate from?
Simulate a game 10,000 times, take the median scores of the game, and look at the difference?
If this difference varies from the line by a few points, then that would be the play?
Does it make sense to run some regressions, find out which data points are best correlated to covering the spread and then incorporate these into a simulation?
What is wrong with my logic here about using this approach?