[bettingman6]

I’m considering buying points on the USC Fresno State game at Betnow. Rather than getting Fresno State at +13.5 and -110 odds, is get them at +14.5 and -130 odds.

Betnow charges 25 cents per half point if you buy around a 3 or 7, but they only charge 10 cents per half point around 14.

I’ve been waiting for this line to move forever and it hasn’t budged.

I’m wondering if this is a good move.

[Waterstpub87]

no, the fair value of this would be -126, and you are being charged -130.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/pic...nt-calculator/

[KVB]

My thoughts on the calculator...

The SBR half point calculator is not correct, in any fashion (long term overall, accounting for differences we see with rule changes, etc.) at least it has never been since I have been here, according to my own research.

Maybe it is "correct" now, I have not messed with it in a long time, but I think it's more of a snapshot of when or shortly after it was created.

It's not the worst tool in the world when you consider it relative to itself. You can get an idea for what numbers are more valuable than other numbers, even if you don't know the actual rates and somethings haven't changed too much.

But...lol...that said...lol...I doubt it's correct.

It's also possible to figure the push rates that particular books are using but using the values for buying and selling points.

Even then, I would only trust the big guys there to give us anything reliable.

[BigdaddyQH]

Buying points is ALWAYS a suckers play. You are giving away 20 cents on the dollar based on the assumption that the game ends with a USC win by 14 points. If you do some research, you will see that USC's PK is returning from a knee injury from last season and as of now, is still iffy to play in this game. Add that to the fact that USC has had a 14 point win ONCE in the past 7 seasons, this is a poor choice.

[KVB]

Buying points is ALWAYS a suckers play...

This is not true, the market hasn't reached that kind of efficiency in some instances.

This poster will not be able to prove his assertion and I may go on to prove mine, if it doesn't reveal too much.

In the end, history does identify some spots where buying the points are advisable, depending of course on your handicapping methods.

BigDaddy does not cap, does not bet, and lies about bets he made and claims to win, even here in the Think Tank.

This is why he doesn't know and sticks to the amateur notion and cliche that buying points is "ALWAYS a sucker play."

BigDaddy simply does not know shit.

[Waterstpub87]

My thoughts on the calculator...

I remember you posting this.

I have looked it as compared to mlb totals. and my win %s tend to change relatively close to the change when I go across numbers. Is it exact, no, but it is ball park. Without scraping 10 years of data and measuring changes, it isn't something that is going to be exact.

I don't think the sports books are the best way to go, since they are probably overcharging somewhere. But again, it would give you a ball park answer.

Buying points is not always a sucker play. There are definitely inefficiencies somewhere. I have often wondered if selling points early, and buying them late is a better way to go. Consider that the probabilities are more in line later, buying points would be more effective.

[KVB]

I remember you posting this.

I have looked it as compared to mlb totals. and my win %s tend to change relatively close to the change when I go across numbers. Is it exact, no, but it is ball park. Without scraping 10 years of data and measuring changes, it isn't something that is going to be exact.

I don't think the sports books are the best way to go, since they are probably overcharging somewhere. But again, it would give you a ball park answer.

Buying points is not always a sucker play. There are definitely inefficiencies somewhere. I have often wondered if selling points early, and buying them late is a better way to go. Consider that the probabilities are more in line later, buying points would be more effective.

Good post WaterSt, thanks for chiming back in there. I appreciate it.

It's entirely possible they have done some updating or work on the calculator, like I said I haven't messed with it in a long time.

I was going to bring up selling points too, I think if you are scouring the lines, you will find something there.

[Stallion]

Maybe buy a half point?

[BigdaddyQH]

This is not true, the market hasn't reached that kind of efficiency in some instances.

This poster will not be able to prove his assertion and I may go on to prove mine, if it doesn't reveal too much.

In the end, history does identify some spots where buying the points are advisable, depending of course on your handicapping methods.

BigDaddy does not cap, does not bet, and lies about bets he made and claims to win, even here in the Think Tank.

This is why he doesn't know and sticks to the amateur notion and cliche that buying points is "ALWAYS a sucker play."

BigDaddy simply does not know shit.

The Chicken S**t talks a lot but refuses my challenges. I have caught him numerous times lying, past posting, playing both ends against the middle, and generally acting like a washed up tout, where he learned most of his Bull Crap. Notice how this feces spreader talks. "In the end, history does identify some spots where buying the points are advisable, depending of course on your handicapping methods." "Some spots?" Which ones big mouth? "Your handicapping methods?" You do not have any, you lying piece of crap.

KVB KNOWS that I can destroy him physically, emotionally, and financially any time I choose to. He can do nothing about it and it scares the caca out of him. He is mentally disturbed, and that is a matter of public record. KVB, your days are numbered in here boy. You are a disgrace to anyone who wagers.

[Waterstpub87]

Good post WaterSt, thanks for chiming back in there. I appreciate it.

It's entirely possible they have done some updating or work on the calculator, like I said I haven't messed with it in a long time.

I was going to bring up selling points too, I think if you are scouring the lines, you will find something there.

	Total	Over Price	Under Price	Over Implied Win	Over Simulated Win	Difference	Under Implied Win	Under Simulated Win	Difference
MILWAS	9	-103	-107	0.507389163	0.485587583	-0.021801579	0.516908213	0.514412417	-0.002495796
MILWAS	9.5	119.5	-131.8	0.455580866	0.438	-0.017580866	0.568593615	0.562	-0.006593615

Top line is the closing line against where I had the game. I had this as almost a perfect line. If I use the half point calculator to go to 9.5, the odds change in the second line. This against where I have means a difference in like 4 bps, but this also includes the fact that more juice is being charged, 12 cents in total, against 10 cents in the original. So the value of the half point, from 9 to 9.5 is pretty fairly priced according to my calculation from the sbr odds one. Can't speak to football.

[KVB]

	Total	Over Price	Under Price	Over Implied Win	Over Simulated Win	Difference	Under Implied Win	Under Simulated Win	Difference
MILWAS	9	-103	-107	0.507389163	0.485587583	-0.021801579	0.516908213	0.514412417	-0.002495796
MILWAS	9.5	119.5	-131.8	0.455580866	0.438	-0.017580866	0.568593615	0.562	-0.006593615

Top line is the closing line against where I had the game. I had this as almost a perfect line. If I use the half point calculator to go to 9.5, the odds change in the second line. This against where I have means a difference in like 4 bps, but this also includes the fact that more juice is being charged, 12 cents in total, against 10 cents in the original. So the value of the half point, from 9 to 9.5 is pretty fairly priced according to my calculation from the sbr odds one. Can't speak to football.

[vampire assassin]

At -110, the breakeven is 52.4%. At -130, the breakeven is 56.5%. You're paying 4.1% to capture the "14". Is it worth it? If the push-rate of the 14 in that game is at least 4.1%, it's good. Otherwise, not.

If you look at games with spread of 10.5-16, totals of 42.5 to 66, you get 1300 games, of which the sample has a fair spread of 13.5 and a total of 52.5. In that sample, the "14" pushed 2.5% of the time.

Buying the 14 is lowering your breakeven rate by 1.6%, or throwing away 3.2% in equity.

[bettingman6]

Buying points is ALWAYS a suckers play. You are giving away 20 cents on the dollar based on the assumption that the game ends with a USC win by 14 points. If you do some research, you will see that USC's PK is returning from a knee injury from last season and as of now, is still iffy to play in this game. Add that to the fact that USC has had a 14 point win ONCE in the past 7 seasons, this is a poor choice.

How many points is a placekicker worth? I bet it's not even 0.5 points. Placekicker is probably the least important position on a football team.

Anyway, I'm going to wait to bet on this game. Sooner or later it might go up to 14 points- there's still another 8 days. If it goes down to 13 points, I'll still probably bet on Fresno.

[turbobets]

Good thread was wondering myself today if the calculator was using old data. Are push percents also used to calculate half point prices for MLB totals?

[Waterstpub87]

Good thread was wondering myself today if the calculator was using old data. Are push percents also used to calculate half point prices for MLB totals?

Yes. If you look, they post the estimated push.% next.to the number. I dont know if it scales, like

"games that have a total of 8 push on 9 x% of time, verse games that have a total 9 push on 9 Y% of the time"

That was why it is ball park, and not exact. If you wanted to build a more correct one, you would get years of data and figure that part out.

[semibluff]

At -110, the breakeven is 52.4%. At -130, the breakeven is 56.5%. You're paying 4.1% to capture the "14". Is it worth it? If the push-rate of the 14 in that game is at least 4.1%, it's good. Otherwise, not.

If you look at games with spread of 10.5-16, totals of 42.5 to 66, you get 1300 games, of which the sample has a fair spread of 13.5 and a total of 52.5. In that sample, the "14" pushed 2.5% of the time.

Buying the 14 is lowering your breakeven rate by 1.6%, or throwing away 3.2% in equity.

Perfect analysis. If you think there's more than a 4.14079% chance of USC winning by exactly 14 points then buying a full point is better value than betting at +13½. If you think it's less than a 4.14079% chance then +14½ is less value. I have no opinion as to which of the 4 options is best as I don't follow college football. I'm simply crunching the numbers.

[semibluff]

Buying points is ALWAYS a suckers play. You are giving away 20 cents on the dollar based on the assumption that the game ends with a USC win by 14 points. If you do some research, you will see that USC's PK is returning from a knee injury from last season and as of now, is still iffy to play in this game. Add that to the fact that USC has had a 14 point win ONCE in the past 7 seasons, this is a poor choice.

Your 'opinion' that the book's main line or the line closest to a 50-50 split is the only handicap worth considering is clearly dogma of the worst possible kind. There is no conclusive evidence to say every other possible handicap line will be worse. Additionally the juice on a -110;-110 line would be higher than the juice on a -130, +110 line. Other possible lines are at least worth considering. It's purely about the comparative value of each betting scenario. USC's history of winning by exactly 14 points is also irrelevant.