Anyone know what the winning % would be if someone only bet dogs and/or unders? Let’s say you use the closing line of pinny as the line. Looking for the big leagues such as NFL, NBA and MLB. Thanks!
I could post favourite vs underdog records for the NFL for the last couple of years. It wouldn't be exactly the data you were looking for as favourite/underdog on my data was based on an estimated spread number from the Tuesday before Sunday games. Some teams that were favourites, even on Saturday, might have been underdogs come Sunday kickoff. Even if it was accurate it wouldn't help because it doesn't provide you with an accurate money line number. For what it's worth in 2013 the NFL opening line favourites were 180-75-1.
The data I collated and analysed was used for an NFL money line pick'em rather than as a gambling tool. The quantitative analysis suggested picking every favourite was a better strategy than every home team, which was better than every road team, which was better than every underdog. Over 2013 to 2018 as a whole those 4 outcomes remain in that order. Obviously some years show better underdog results and some years show better road team results. No strategy looked like being profitable against an actual line with juice.
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Winning % Of Dogs/Unders
Reply With Quote