Originally Posted by
Gaze73
Since 12/5 until today I had only 3 losing days and guess what, 2 of them were saturdays. 6/8 saturdays since I'm tracking are in a loss now, 3 of which were heavy losses. My BR would be twice as big if I had skipped those saturdays.
I'm sure it's not me because there isn't really room for error with my models. When the numbers line up I bet. There's only 2 explanations: 1. It's just bad variance clumped in one day or 2. My models don't work in the saturday's leagues. Every soccer league is different. I bet mostly on dogs but in some leagues most favs win. If the market was efficient then favs would win equally often in all leagues.