[BigdaddyQH]

I have told you amateurs about the huge profitability of wagering on Middles. but NO ONE in here seems to agree with me. That is normal because no one in here is any good at sports wagering, no matter what they may think. Well children, you do not have to agree with me, but I DARE you to argue with a known, proven, accepted Sports Sharp. I am talking about James Holtzhauer, the same person who just won nearly 2.5 Million on Jeopardy. Here is what he has to say about Middles:

"One other thing that Holzhauer likes to do when he's gambling on the NFL is to bet the middle, which can happen when two sportsbooks have different points spreads for the same game. For example, if the Steelers were favored to beat the Browns by 10.5 points at one book, but only 9.5 points at another book, Holzhauer would likely pounce on that.

"A big part of my game is trying to hit a middle on the key number, like I see one sports book is dealing +10.5, another is -9.5," he said. "There are definitely times I'll bet both."

What the article failed to tell you is that he uses ALL key numbers, of which there are many, especially with the growing number of missed PAT's forcing teams to go for 2 the next time they have the opportunity to.

Now you guys can argue with me. You will be proven wrong, but then again, whats new? I want to see you big mouths take Holzhauer to task about the very same thing. My guess is that the only people who will respond to this post are the dumb s**ts who do not like me, and will make their remarks a personal attack, instead of attempting to discuss the subject at hand. No problem. They are fools and will be called out. I want to see some of the guys in here that have some sense of wagering knowledge to argue against wagering on middles. You guys know who you are. Sammy, get your crew together and let's see what they have to say. Twizzle, get your crew of posters together and let's see what they have to say on the subject. Danshaun, JToler, 2daBank, KVB and Jibby, tell us what you think. I would ask Lakerboy, JJ, and Morino but they are known proven losers and I am trying to keep this somewhat legit. This should be good.

[JacketFan81]

God you're a penetrating idiot

[JacketFan81]

Go lay $2000 to win $35 on Alabama, you penetrating retard

[BigdaddyQH]

God you're a penetrating idiot

A perfect example of what I was talking about. An absolute nobody, a total illiterate when it comes to football, a fool whose only success in life has been to make a total arse out of himself, has to chime in with some worthless comment because the subject matter at hand is so far over his head that he has no idea what we are talking about. I guess 133 posts in a year and a half prove just how uneducated he is about football in general. Being a Ga. Tech fans proves how simple his mind is. Tech only knew how to do one thing on offense for the entire 11 years Johnson was there, so it did not take much to follow them.

[Waterstpub87]

I think most people are trying to hit middles like that. I don't see the controversy.

[leetreaper]

Somebody shoot this clown ffs

[Barrakuda]

There's not a person alive who wouldn't take that middle. Good luck finding more than one or two a year, and for small limits. Holzhauer does not make his money of off guaranteed arbing; he just wanted to give an example that non-bettors could understand.

I'll never understand why SBR bans people regularly but refuses to do anything about people cluttering up the forum with 5th-grade fight challenged.

[KVB]

This guy still trying to post in the think tank?

Trying to create some controversy where there is none?

Not unlike when he tries to create past bets he's won that were never available to begin with.

Every bettor, young and old, new and seasoned is well aware of the potential for middles. Some of us seek it around key numbers, but BigDaddy acting like this Jeopardy character has revealed some big secret.

Mods, Saloon this shit.

BigDaddy, walk on out of the Think Tank already, nobody thinks your jokes of posts are funny and you seem to miss reality and think criticism is personal.

Find reality BigDaddy, and get out of the Think Tank, you aren't truthful in here.

[KVB]

I think most people are trying to hit middles like that. I don't see the controversy.

He's trying real hard to recover from his last great strategy of buying Bama moneylines that didn't exist.

Of course, he came up with the strategy after the fact then claimed to make the bets years ago, which is why he didn't know they didn't exist.

He didn't realize some of us keep records and no what bets were available and when.

BigDaddy trying real hard here.

[thomorino]

I have told you amateurs about the huge profitability of wagering on Middles. but NO ONE in here seems to agree with me. That is normal because no one in here is any good at sports wagering, no matter what they may think. Well children, you do not have to agree with me, but I DARE you to argue with a known, proven, accepted Sports Sharp. I am talking about James Holtzhauer, the same person who just won nearly 2.5 Million on Jeopardy. Here is what he has to say about Middles:

"One other thing that Holzhauer likes to do when he's gambling on the NFL is to bet the middle, which can happen when two sportsbooks have different points spreads for the same game. For example, if the Steelers were favored to beat the Browns by 10.5 points at one book, but only 9.5 points at another book, Holzhauer would likely pounce on that.

"A big part of my game is trying to hit a middle on the key number, like I see one sports book is dealing +10.5, another is -9.5," he said. "There are definitely times I'll bet both."

What the article failed to tell you is that he uses ALL key numbers, of which there are many, especially with the growing number of missed PAT's forcing teams to go for 2 the next time they have the opportunity to.

Now you guys can argue with me. You will be proven wrong, but then again, whats new? I want to see you big mouths take Holzhauer to task about the very same thing. My guess is that the only people who will respond to this post are the dumb s**ts who do not like me, and will make their remarks a personal attack, instead of attempting to discuss the subject at hand. No problem. They are fools and will be called out. I want to see some of the guys in here that have some sense of wagering knowledge to argue against wagering on middles. You guys know who you are. Sammy, get your crew together and let's see what they have to say. Twizzle, get your crew of posters together and let's see what they have to say on the subject. Danshaun, JToler, 2daBank, KVB and Jibby, tell us what you think. I would ask Lakerboy, JJ, and Morino but they are known proven losers and I am trying to keep this somewhat legit. This should be good.

Fuk off

[Alfa1234]

What could be a real discussion is when to take a middle and when not. Say 1 side is at 1.85 and the opposite side with a 1 point middle is at 1.95. Is the guaranteed 5% total stake loss worth the risk in NFL? In BSB?

On top of that, you are risking your account if this middle came after a line move where 1 bookie has not fully caught up yet.

[semibluff]

I would imagine most of us "amateurs" use the SBR Half-Point calculator to revalue and compare different handicaps or spreads. I'm sure i'm not the only person who has their own version on Excel, adapted to their own valuation of integer handicap probabilities. If all the op is saying is bet +10½ at +100 and also bet -9½ at +100 to arbitrage a no-loss outcome with large potential upside then...derrr! We already know that. The better question would be do people know what the price differentials need to be at any given number for this to be a break-even strategy at any given 1 point difference in the handicap/spread? That point would be important because most of the time you're effectively betting a large underdog at a +ev price. However just like any other +ev system where you're betting a +1200 outcome at +1600 you will still have the problems of variance and long losing streaks. Personally I don't know the price differentials needed, although I could work them out. I wouldn't bother because i'm not actively looking for arbitrage type situations, (and that's effectively what this is), and i'm not chasing steam, (because just like other forms of arbitrage the sharps that DO chase and bet these situations will cause them to close pretty quickly). At least they'll close before the op can get his phone call into Vegas and have his female runners load up with cash to go bet them.

[Grits n' Gravy]

Bigdaddyqh is a clown who consistently hits the polish middles.

Bottom 10 in last year’s btp contest.

Convicted sex offender too, so hide your kids from the sicko.

[BigdaddyQH]

Bigdaddyqh is a clown who consistently hits the polish middles.

Bottom 10 in last year’s btp contest.

Convicted sex offender too, so hide your kids from the sicko.

JJ. I TOLD you not to let the Gorilla's out of their cages. Grits, you are nothing but a lying arsehole. You never could show a record of any arrest of myself, could you? I know how many times you have been busted for drugs. And stay away from the white girls, you pervert.

[BigdaddyQH]

What could be a real discussion is when to take a middle and when not. Say 1 side is at 1.85 and the opposite side with a 1 point middle is at 1.95. Is the guaranteed 5% total stake loss worth the risk in NFL? In BSB?

On top of that, you are risking your account if this middle came after a line move where 1 bookie has not fully caught up yet.

"you are risking your account if this middle came after a line move where 1 bookie has not fully caught up yet"..

Not in Vegas. The problem with you losers is that you depend totally of off shore lines. You all are amateur gamblers and have no idea how to set up an account in Vegas. You know absolutely NOTHING about how a Sportsbook in a Las Vegas Hotel handles these situations. You have no idea how they operate at all. It can be very different than what you guys lay and how you play it.

[BigdaddyQH]

He's trying real hard to recover from his last great strategy of buying Bama moneylines that didn't exist.

Of course, he came up with the strategy after the fact then claimed to make the bets years ago, which is why he didn't know they didn't exist.

He didn't realize some of us keep records and no what bets were available and when.

BigDaddy trying real hard here.

I am going to kick your ignorant, stupid worthless arse this football season. I know you are nothing more than a Chicken Shit. Our wager still stands. Pull out and I will pound your tail. You are going to lose, and lose BIG. Now here is my spreadsheet info:
http://bigdaddyqh.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/ You have no f**king excuses now. My plays are all posted, something that you cowards will not do. PUT UP OR SHUT UP.

[BigdaddyQH]

The fact remains that not a one of you wagers on middles. Some of you cannot because you wager off shore and those people can do whatever they want to your accounts whenever they want. You people are pathetic. Others simply do not have the money to be able to afford to lose some vig. Most of you are fakes going in. You do not wager at all. You are the losers in life and will do anything just to get any type of attention. Then there are the total arseholes like Grits & Gravy, who not only is a known and proven liar, but is begging to get the caca beat out of him. People of his race seem to think that this is a normal routine.

When you wusses start actually wagering on middles, then we can talk. Until then, you frauds can go back to your lying, deceitfulness, and the other games you like to play. In other words, GET LOST.

[leetreaper]

OP is the dumbest clown on SBR and it's not even close ​

[KVB]

I am going to kick your ignorant, stupid worthless arse this football season. I know you are nothing more than a Chicken Shit. Our wager still stands. Pull out and I will pound your tail. You are going to lose, and lose BIG. Now here is my spreadsheet info:
http://bigdaddyqh.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/ You have no f**king excuses now. My plays are all posted, something that you cowards will not do. PUT UP OR SHUT UP.

We don't have a wager to stand and I don't know what the fuk you are talking about.

I would never spend time in any kind of wager with you.

You lie about the bets you make you lie a lot on SBR.

You've lost your integrity and any chance to get involved with anything I'm doing here.

Why would I make a bet with a liar who doesn't show the integrity to honor his bets?

Get out of the Think Tank bigdaddy, can't you even read what's around you and see the reality of you as a poster?

Can't you even do that or are you just going to keep yapping like an idiot and stand there and just bleed from getting pummeled by everyone?

You don't even have a punch to throw back.

That's what I thought, stand there and bleed like the punk ass bitch that you are.

Lying ass punk, we've ran you out of here so many times, yet you come back for more.

Idiot, time to run off again.

[KVB]

OP is the dumbest clown on SBR and it's not even close ​

Not even close.

[Alfa1234]

"you are risking your account if this middle came after a line move where 1 bookie has not fully caught up yet"..

Not in Vegas. The problem with you losers is that you depend totally of off shore lines. You all are amateur gamblers and have no idea how to set up an account in Vegas. You know absolutely NOTHING about how a Sportsbook in a Las Vegas Hotel handles these situations. You have no idea how they operate at all. It can be very different than what you guys lay and how you play it.

First correct thing I've ever seen you type. I know nothing about Vegas, I'm in Europe and have access to hundreds of different bookies, with nice limits and tons of lines. Not restricted to Vegas at all. My possibilities are endless.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Vegas is a sideshow - a mere $5bn wagered last year for the whole of Nevada.

Maxbet by itself takes more than that in a month.

[tsty]

Vegas is a sideshow - a mere $5bn wagered last year for the whole of Nevada.

Maxbet by itself takes more than that in a month.

yeh lol and don't even create their own lines anymore anyways

[Grits n' Gravy]

JJ. I TOLD you not to let the Gorilla's out of their cages. Grits, you are nothing but a lying arsehole. You never could show a record of any arrest of myself, could you? I know how many times you have been busted for drugs. And stay away from the white girls, you pervert.

I could post your court transcripts, all of your personal info including home address, ss# as well as contact info for some of your grandchildren that you diddled. sbr won’t allow it.

Quit acting like a bad ass. You are a geriatric bitch who gets a hard on when he hears an ice cream truck.

The only middles you are playing is when you relive your 3 months in jail as the stuffing to a double dark meat sandwich.

[Grits n' Gravy]

The fact remains that not a one of you wagers on middles. Some of you cannot because you wager off shore and those people can do whatever they want to your accounts whenever they want. You people are pathetic. Others simply do not have the money to be able to afford to lose some vig. Most of you are fakes going in. You do not wager at all. You are the losers in life and will do anything just to get any type of attention. Then there are the total arseholes like Grits & Gravy, who not only is a known and proven liar, but is begging to get the caca beat out of him. People of his race seem to think that this is a normal routine.

When you wusses start actually wagering on middles, then we can talk. Until then, you frauds can go back to your lying, deceitfulness, and the other games you like to play. In other words, GET LOST.

Anytime you want your pedo skull caved in, please let me know. I will be happy to beat the living shit out of a convicted kid diddler.

Bigdaddypedo.....all talk, no action. Bottom 10 in 2018 btp contest.....facts.

[peacebyinches]

Big daddy, do you know what a strawman fallacy is?

anyways, I hope the OP gets the psychiatric help he needs, but in the mean time he needs to keep his trolling confined to players talk and saloon

[KVB]

Yet another poster suggesting BigDaddy steer clear of the Think Tank.

Imagine that.

[JacketFan81]

A perfect example of what I was talking about. An absolute nobody, a total illiterate when it comes to football, a fool whose only success in life has been to make a total arse out of himself, has to chime in with some worthless comment because the subject matter at hand is so far over his head that he has no idea what we are talking about. I guess 133 posts in a year and a half prove just how uneducated he is about football in general. Being a Ga. Tech fans proves how simple his mind is. Tech only knew how to do one thing on offense for the entire 11 years Johnson was there, so it did not take much to follow them.

I feel like you made my point for me. Thanks.

[Believe_EMT]

you understand, of course, that there is a limit to the amount of 'key numbers' that can exist?

by definition, if you are stating about key numbers, that 'of which, many exist' you are actively devaluing those key numbers. you see the whole population of scoring margin will add up to 100%. the more 'key numbers' you claim exist effectively limits the share of that 100% that each 'key number' can have.

please feel free to list these multiple 'key numbers' (you don't even have to break them down by closing line if you don't want) with the % of the time scoring margin lands on them.

[KVB]

Right EMT. In fact, it seems like the ability to determine the "keyness" of numbers can really separate the bettors.

Not so much as it used to be, obviously, but there's still a difference. It's not always cut and dry as overall percentage, sometimes they evolve, or at least demonstrate a recent performance (even over many years in the context of decades of time).

I've always tried to avoid what I'm using as key numbers and push rates when I discuss forecasts and plays, I feel it many times still gives some of the market an edge. Especially the high volume times, like holidays and championships, when the public is pushing the line out of whack.

Curse the NFL for messing with the extra point, a blatant attempt to erode the value of key numbers over time.

[Sawyer]

Middles are good but at least one side you bet must be ''value'' like Warriors -3½ -105 and Raptors +4 +110.
If you're betting both sides at -110, it's a sucker bet, mostly. I bet middles a lot. Must be careful when betting negative middles though. My mentality in basketball middles is %1 loss is okay for each 1 point difference. Heat +6½-110 Mavs -5½ +107 is a good middle, you lose only %0.93 of your total stake but if you win, you win both bets!

[jtoler]

good luck

[Believe_EMT]

there ya go. i feel like we turned this pos start into a thread that produced a sliver of value.

whatever happened to durito?

[semibluff]

Middles are good but at least one side you bet must be ''value'' like Warriors -3½ -105 and Raptors +4 +110.
If you're betting both sides at -110, it's a sucker bet, mostly. I bet middles a lot. Must be careful when betting negative middles though. My mentality in basketball middles is %1 loss is okay for each 1 point difference. Heat +6½-110 Mavs -5½ +107 is a good middle, you lose only %0.93 of your total stake but if you win, you win both bets!

The 1st example of +110; -105 is an arb not a middle. It could be a +/- typo so no harm no foul. I would doubt there's a middle at -110; -105 with a push rather than a win. I don't follow the NBA so I don't have any insight as to the probability of a specific points differential outcome. The SBR half point calculator suggests the probability of a 6 point win is 4.16%, and based on that the true odds break even point, (including winning both bets on the middle) would be +6½ @-108.7; -5½ @-108.7. The odds would rarely be exactly in the centre so there could be -109 on 1 side and -105 on the other, (14 spots). As a rough guide the NBA line differential at 6 based on -108.7 is 17.4 spots. Where the market is below 17.4 spots then over the long term you should be in +ev territory. That is of course if the SBR half point probability is correct, which is a big if. The problems with long losing streaks betting at +2304 on what might be a +2100 probability is also well known.

[KVB]

The SBR half point calculator is not correct, in any fashion (long term overall, accounting for differences we see with rule changes, etc.) at least it has never been since I have been here, according to my own research.

Maybe it is "correct" now, I have not messed with it in a long time, but I think it's more of a snapshot of when or shortly after it was created.

It's not the worst tool in the world when you consider it relative to itself. You can get an idea for what numbers are more valuable than other numbers, even if you don't know the actual rates and somethings haven't changed too much.

But...lol...that said...lol...I doubt it's correct.

It's also possible to figure the push rates that particular books are using but using the values for buying and selling points.

Even then, I would only trust the big guys there to give us anything reliable.