Originally Posted by
semibluff
The 1st example of +110; -105 is an arb not a middle. It could be a +/- typo so no harm no foul. I would doubt there's a middle at -110; -105 with a push rather than a win. I don't follow the NBA so I don't have any insight as to the probability of a specific points differential outcome. The SBR half point calculator suggests the probability of a 6 point win is 4.16%, and based on that the true odds break even point, (including winning both bets on the middle) would be +6½ @-108.7; -5½ @-108.7. The odds would rarely be exactly in the centre so there could be -109 on 1 side and -105 on the other, (14 spots). As a rough guide the NBA line differential at 6 based on -108.7 is 17.4 spots. Where the market is below 17.4 spots then over the long term you should be in +ev territory. That is of course if the SBR half point probability is correct, which is a big if. The problems with long losing streaks betting at +2304 on what might be a +2100 probability is also well known.