Originally Posted by
Believe_EMT
in the spirit of a civil of discourse, just a few questions or observations
the opening line is by far the least efficient. do you agree?
more information comes in as the line matures, increasing the accuracy of the line. do you agree?
i believe those first two points which leaves me confounded as to how you view a line move 20 cents against your play a bonus? you are clearly on the wrong side of that play. (wrong side meaning the closing line is efficient, but when we say it is efficient it should be understood by bettor that it is in the context of this same contest being played an infinite number of times. given this, if you accepted +116 when it closed at +136 an infinite number of times, your losses would be exponentially larger than a guy dropping a play on the mets just before close. he would lose as well, not just as much as you.)
this does bring back memories of when i used to follow this system and post it across the street. only looked to win 20 units a year and then shut it down. did not end well.