[destruction88]

Hi all,

TLDR; Where does a professional gambling (modeler) find people to have proper indepth or meaningful conversations about their "work" on a regular basis?


As in to brainstorm problems or just talk about daily stresses, future direction etc.

Society is full of anti-gambling propaganda and lies. Everyone either loves gambling or hates it (by default). Unfortunately even the mugs tend to be jaded too.

So the pool of people who TRULY comprehend and accept "it's possible to beat the house without cheating or inside information" is very small.

Family, friends, university peers you say... refer back to the propaganda part. Work colleagues don't exist because modeling is my "day job".

In person would be beneficial because that ensures that the other party is committed, too many email conversations die out and very quickly but online may be the only way to cast a large enough net.

It's just where to find the other professionals online? I would gladly talk to a successful steamer if they were willing to put the effort in and not just looking for free tips.

[BigdaddyQH]

I disagree with part of what you have to say. First, you sound like a defeated politician when you say society is full of anti-gambling propoganda and lies. Just what are you talking about? Next, what do you consider to be "inside information"? There is lots of information that the successful gambler must know in order to continue to be successful, and some of that is the ability to find various wagering tricks. like the bait and switch, and others, which you may consider "inside information" which is NOT inside information because it is out there for everyone to see. What most losers do not do is take tthe time to figure it out. I would be glad to engage in a dialog with you.

[nash13]

Hello,
I can speak for myself. I started in several foreign and domestic forums. Made contact with real skillful and friendly other bettors.
Mostly it is about trust. Just like in every other filed of expertise. After years of experience you can recognize fast if there are people trying to take advantage from you. For example: If I would go on an start a topic like: "I have found a superb system which made me 400+ Units in the last 5 years just based on two metric conditions" there would be a lot of people who would distrust me, just plain out believe I was lying, or I was trying to take advantage from them by being a tout or try to sell my services.
So basically we are living here in a field of distrust, envy and greed. Outside the betting scene they look at this as a disease. It is called gambling for a reason.
Back on topic. I would love to discuss meaningful things with others here, I just don't think that everyone is willing to share what they really can do. Rather they try to boost their ego.

[nash13]

But don't get me wrong. I love to discuss and share insight opinions and what i believe works.

[destruction88]

Where does anybody learn about understanding market movements?

I am not talking about superstitious / untested RLM crap which tends to be the only thing that is discussed in regards to market movement.

An example:
If the market moves against a bet that is supposedly +EV then on average it will most likely be an unfavourable play unless:
- Manipulation is extremely high and markets efficiency does not improve between open and close
- OR individual mugs are able to REGULARLY move the odds by large amounts.

Eg
Opening - Moneyline
Team-Blue: $1.90
Team-Red: $1.90

12 hours later
Team-Blue: $1.60
Team-Red: $2.25

If my model had the odds at:
Team-Blue: $2.33
Team-Red: $1.75

Obviously it is important to respect the market, so if I were to combine the no juice odds after 12 hours with the odds generated by my model... and even if I weighted the books odds heavily and my model's opinion by not much it looks like I would be getting a fair amount of EV but I have to strongly respect what Justin7 said years ago and from experience that is definitely not a profitable play EVEN if I got on later when the odds had increased to $2.25 even if the odds dropped slightly after I bet. This should not be news to any professional.

However, in a great deal of threads it seems there are profitable punters that are betting against those movements which seems to contradict the sound theory of not betting against the market. I imagine, some or many are naive and not combining the books opinion with their own thus they are eroding their profits on those plays BUT perhaps some are actually profiting but how?

It could be like I mentioned above, heavy manipulation OR all money moves the odds OR they just have a very large edge which compensates for other weaker sharps being on the opposite side of them.

Where did they learn (books, forums, topics) when it is acceptable to bet against the market? What is their criteria?

Another example:
I would also be interested in "Blocked Odds" or semi-blocked odds which I am getting trapped by. For whatever reason, Bet365 is open with odds for all matches, my sharp-friendly book opens with all the odds for all matches except one which they do not put up for hours, some times 12+ hours later.

[AsianmanSports]

Im open to have constructive meaningfull conversations, if anyone is serious please PM me.

[Sanity Check]

If there are pros they could be correlated with big data, statistical analysis, mathematical probability, etc.

Try there.

.

[Believe_EMT]

if you truly have a successful model that you continue to refine as the market evolves, you are going about things the wrong way. you can consider your model world class if you are generating 55% winners (sides/totals) consistently season over season.

if you are, stop wasting your time and exposing yourself to unneeded risk.

start your own handicapping service, get documented by 3 independent services and drastically reduce your risk.

that's they way i did it, just make sure your most successful season is not followed by the Great Recession and you'll be good to go.

[danshan11]

that is very impressive 55% long term ATS, I never met anyone doing that well!

I am at 52.38% win% at an average line of 49.59% long term

[nash13]

that is very impressive 55% long term ATS, I never met anyone doing that well!

I am at 52.38% win% at an average line of 49.59% long term

I am currently at 54.56%, but this means nothing if you can not bet at higher stakes and at the right time.
It is important to have a good ration in a meaningful market.

[BigdaddyQH]

55% is a good percentage, if you can do that on a steady basis, but it is certainly not great. Not by a long shot. I am at a lifetime 57.5% clip (over 35 years) and I am not close to most of the Pro's that I play with. I believe in wagering the same amount on every wager. If it is worth a wager, it is worth a wager. If not, then do not wager. By varying the size of your wagers and trying to outguess the worth of the wager, you are just adding an unnecessary headache to your wagering. It is tough enough to figure out a winning wager. You do not need the extra added problem of figuring out how much it is worth. Not only that, but if you are like a good 90% of the gamblers, you will forget about the time your big wager hit when you went 1-3 and remember the time it lost when you went 3-1. That is how the typical gambler's mind works.

[danshan11]

man I am just shocked and I thought I was good at 52.5%, I cannot believe the talent of some guys here. Kudos!

[KVB]

Don't be deceived Dan, BigDaddy's boyz are betting chalked moneylines, not spreads. The win percentage doesn't really tell you anything.

Guys hitting better than 57.5% over the long haul on spread or lower priced bets might not be betting enough games and are likely not any sort of meaningful, drawn down as a business, bettor.

They might be, but realistically, you can make a lot more money widening the net and betting games with a lower percentage expectation as you will have more bets against the market.

In fact, even in today's environment of "efficiency" the number of bets can often be a distinguishing factor between meaningful gamblers and the rest.

Once you you can bust through break even, it's about profit, not win percentage.

[destruction88]

@BigdaddyQH... Inside info in my books would be an injured tennis player for instance that just turns up to collect the appearance fee and retires after a set. Physio, doctor, friends, family, locker-room friends / ease-droppers... all those on the inner circle or nearby knew in advance that if the injured player does turn up to the court, the player is unlikely going to be able complete the whole match yet alone play competitively. This is all semantics really, not sure why you were wondering what I think to be inside info.

@AsianmanSports... SBR requires 40 posts before being able to PM. I imagine there are plenty of other regulars on here that you might want to talk to though if private is preferred. PM / email / in-private is much better, it has to be said.

@Sanity Check... the traffic level of most advanced stat websites I imagine is not great but it is a possibility.

@Believe_EMT... Selling picks has its pros and cons but it is like any business these days. Any 13 year old with a brain could design a better UI for Facebook (or better social network) but that is only a very small fraction of what is necessary for a business to succeed. An enormous amount is marketing (controlling the sheep), something I have no interest for as do most other people with an inventor/idea-generator personality.

From a business standpoint, it does make sense, it is just getting the customers. Those following tipsters have a higher chance of being able to get money down at recreational books (better prices, possibly higher limits too) than an individual professional as undoubtedly I like others are banned from the majority of the trustworthy rec books that do pay out leaving only sharp books which is not a problem for me but a large amount of money is left on the table which is being cleaned up by arbers / steamers / the competition that I could be getting a cut of. Also multiple customers in many cases will be able to hit the same book at the SAME price before the retarded slow book drops their odds.

Thus in effect, customers of tipsters are really online beards (runners) / contractors, and the profits get split because the runners are risking their own capital. It also avoids crapping where you eat having to get family members, friends or associates to open accounts (all assuming they do not think gambling is evil) OR alternately getting paid by degenerate whales with accounts massively in the red.

More employees / contractors strongly correlates with increased profit and reduced effort by the business owner. WIN WIN, the caveat being the marketing. Good idea for other professionals to consider.

[destruction88]

I am currently at 54.56%, but this means nothing if you can not bet at higher stakes and at the right time.
It is important to have a good ration in a meaningful market.

And @danshan11 in regards to win %...

Another question that has sat in the back of my head. Do not take this to be argumentative but I do not understand why so many professionals grind the market? I realise @nash13 you are hitting american sports so 54.56% is very commendable (I doubt I could do better), what I mean is why hit the big markets, why not go for the less mature (esports / MMA) / medium (international) / minor (kids, women, Div 3 etc) markets?

After a person like me says (or implies that 52.5-55.0% is unsatisfactory), usually someone agrees and might say they are hitting at 55-60% (probably only for the last season, or even part of a season) but nevertheless even assuming they continued at that rate and did not become complacent (let their edge disappear)... someone will counter that $50,000 limits with +3% EV is much better than $500 limits with +15% EV. Ignoring the $50,000 is very deceptive because so few would have the bankroll to be betting 10-50% Kelly at stakes that high with such a small edge.

However what doesn't get said enough (or ever) is how fast do you think it will take before that 52.5% edge disappears in a continually evolving big market (if it EVEN exists) and becomes public knowledge (50%) or only available at the lowest opening limits VS how often and how much time do you think a sportsbook bothers to spend updating models on minor sports if they even have a model?

My experience is the golden geese get killed much slower than you might think and usually there is more than ample time to then move onto the next gold rush. Assume the 60% is genuine and not by a tout, and is across at least 2 seasons, even if the real strike rate is 57%, that size cushion is still much more preferable in my books even at vastly lower limits because...

If someone is dropping 25K-50K bets and their edge has disappeared, they are going to pay a LOT of juice over a season or even two. Whereas the minor sport professional popping $500 max bets should have a very easy time identifying they are not striking at 57% (or 60%) anymore and hence will not pay any juice at all, as they will have already moved onto the next golden goose before their edge completely evaporates.

[Believe_EMT]

55% is a good percentage, if you can do that on a steady basis, but it is certainly not great. Not by a long shot. I am at a lifetime 57.5% clip (over 35 years) and I am not close to most of the Pro's that I play with.

this is just plain wrong. it is dangerous to suggest to anyone on this forum that they should expect an amateur to be at greater than 57% and expect 'pros' to be near 60%.

those numbers are impossible. for me, it reveals how little you understand about the market place. but for less seasoned bettors, you are setting them up to either strive for an impossible win rate or believe scamdicappers that claim they can win 60%.

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT FOR NEW OR SEMI-EXPERIENCED PLAYERS: No one will ever hit 60%. If someone claims such, devalue everything they say.

[Believe_EMT]

@Believe_EMT... Selling picks has its pros and cons but it is like any business these days. Any 13 year old with a brain could design a better UI for Facebook (or better social network) but that is only a very small fraction of what is necessary for a business to succeed. An enormous amount is marketing (controlling the sheep), something I have no interest for as do most other people with an inventor/idea-generator personality.
From a business standpoint, it does make sense, it is just getting the customers.

i was more optimistic back then and i had a partner that loved doing the hype piece of it. but our approach was simple. i knew i had an edge, knew i could win, but how to bring in people.

first season was free, posted majority of plays in public forums, drove traffic to the site. started with a small client base. used some tracking sites the next few years, consistently finishing top 5. certainly was not easy, but it was blossoming. then lost 54% of my clients when the housing market collapsed.

biggest factor working against me was i only did ncaaf and nfl. hard to build a presence and stay relevant when you only work 6 months a year.

but to your overall point, depressing truth is that marketing trumps performance.

[nash13]

i was more optimistic back then and i had a partner that loved doing the hype piece of it. but our approach was simple. i knew i had an edge, knew i could win, but how to bring in people.

first season was free, posted majority of plays in public forums, drove traffic to the site. started with a small client base. used some tracking sites the next few years, consistently finishing top 5. certainly was not easy, but it was blossoming. then lost 54% of my clients when the housing market collapsed.

biggest factor working against me was i only did ncaaf and nfl. hard to build a presence and stay relevant when you only work 6 months a year.

but to your overall point, depressing truth is that marketing trumps performance.

Can not agree more. But this is more of a discussion about having a service or publishing picks.
A more serious and systematic approach would be to discuss methods, without giving away what you are doing for success in detail.
For my part, i look at changing trend and statistics in the market vs the game.

[danshan11]

Don't be deceived Dan, BigDaddy's boyz are betting chalked moneylines, not spreads. The win percentage doesn't really tell you anything.

Guys hitting better than 57.5% over the long haul on spread or lower priced bets might not be betting enough games and are likely not any sort of meaningful, drawn down as a business, bettor.

They might be, but realistically, you can make a lot more money widening the net and betting games with a lower percentage expectation as you will have more bets against the market.

In fact, even in today's environment of "efficiency" the number of bets can often be a distinguishing factor between meaningful gamblers and the rest.

Once you you can bust through break even, it's about profit, not win percentage.

LOL, you thought I was being serious

[danshan11]

if you truly have a successful model that you continue to refine as the market evolves, you are going about things the wrong way. you can consider your model world class if you are generating 55% winners (sides/totals) consistently season over season.

if you are, stop wasting your time and exposing yourself to unneeded risk.

start your own handicapping service, get documented by 3 independent services and drastically reduce your risk.

that's they way i did it, just make sure your most successful season is not followed by the Great Recession and you'll be good to go.

why do that just create ten scam accounts run picks on them 2 or 3 accounts will do great and you sell picks on those bs accounts, no model needed. that is what everyone else does. margins are too thin, lines move fast, its hard to make money buying picks from even someone who knows. reality is it it is very difficult for someone betting games to make enough even good picks to overcome variance

[KVB]

LOL, you thought I was being serious

No, I know you better than that.

In fact, "don't be deceived Dan" was the last words added to the post.

The post was more a response to BigDaddy douche nozzle, not to you.

Even though I think you have a ways to go, I completely get where you're coming with this kind of analysis.

BigDaddy was just using his -600 ML percentage to try to mislead the thread.

[BigdaddyQH]

this is just plain wrong. it is dangerous to suggest to anyone on this forum that they should expect an amateur to be at greater than 57% and expect 'pros' to be near 60%.

those numbers are impossible. for me, it reveals how little you understand about the market place. but for less seasoned bettors, you are setting them up to either strive for an impossible win rate or believe scamdicappers that claim they can win 60%.

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT FOR NEW OR SEMI-EXPERIENCED PLAYERS: No one will ever hit 60%. If someone claims such, devalue everything they say.

I never said anything about amateurs being at or near 57%. As far as pros go, you obviously do not know any or you would not make such a stupid statement. You really have no clue do you? Absolutely none. The numbers are impossible for you because you simply do not have enough knowledge of College and Pro Football to win. Period. End of statement. Answer me this question rookie. Would you wager on Alabama and give the ML in EVERY regular season game they have played in the past 3 years? Yes or No? The truth of the matter is simply this. I have won more money wagering than any FIVE people in here added up. I have won more money that you will ever see. My wagering allotment is more money than you have. You are the type of slob that dines in the Buffets in Vegas (if you even bother to go to Vegas). I prefer Gourmet Restaurants. Comparing you to me is like comparing a McD's childrens meal to a New York Steak. Grow up little boy.

[BigdaddyQH]

No, I know you better than that.

In fact, "don't be deceived Dan" was the last words added to the post.

The post was more a response to BigDaddy douche nozzle, not to you.

Even though I think you have a ways to go, I completely get where you're coming with this kind of analysis.

BigDaddy was just using his -600 ML percentage to try to mislead the thread.

Another arsehole begging to get pounded this season. You will put up or shut up this season. You and I will go head on fool. I will explain the rules of our little contest in a future post. Suffice it to say that you will get your worthless arse pounded, like you usually do.

[KVB]

Time and time again BigDaddy shows he has neither the patience or discipline of a successful gambler. You have self esteem image issues on the internet...lol.

Want me to go back and show how much importance you rely on season to day ATS records?

It's you who constantly reveals himself as ignorant to what it takes to win, yet claim to win.

You are too easy douche nozzle, too easy.

[KVB]

I never said anything about amateurs being at or near 57%. As far as pros go, you obviously do not know any or you would not make such a stupid statement. You really have no clue do you? Absolutely none. The numbers are impossible for you because you simply do not have enough knowledge of College and Pro Football to win. Period. End of statement. Answer me this question rookie. Would you wager on Alabama and give the ML in EVERY regular season game they have played in the past 3 years? Yes or No? The truth of the matter is simply this. I have won more money wagering than any FIVE people in here added up. I have won more money that you will ever see. My wagering allotment is more money than you have. You are the type of slob that dines in the Buffets in Vegas (if you even bother to go to Vegas). I prefer Gourmet Restaurants. Comparing you to me is like comparing a McD's childrens meal to a New York Steak. Grow up little boy.

You're doing it again BigDaddy. Outing yourself as a tool and citing some ridiculous hindsight bias as evidence.

Get out of the think tank BigDadddy, as weak as the sub Forum has become already, you really, really don't belong here.

[nash13]

wow this is getting out of hand quickly. please let's have a serious discussion about handicapping.

[KVB]

wow this is getting out of hand quickly. please let's have a serious discussion about handicapping.

Seriously, BigDaddy taking it our of the serious mode, he really is trying to pass off upper 3 and 4 digit chalk win percentages as spreads. Notice how he left that out and keeps swearing by the percentages.

Can't have a discussion with posters who have an agenda to make themselves somehow look good.

BigDaddy not being honest here, that's not good for the think tank, he's not describing typical behavior of someone doing this as a business or a "pro."

Guy read a couple books and can quote them, but that doesn't mean he understands what it even says.

Pretty soon he'll be talking about how he can kick everyone's ass and how he's killed before and will do it again to all of us.

It gets ridiculous.

My posts may seem like trolling, but I am warning everyone in this thread that BigDaddy is not being honest and will let his ego get in the way any serious discussion. So many of us have been down that road with him.

[JacketFan81]

Another arsehole begging to get pounded this season. You will put up or shut up this season. You and I will go head on fool. I will explain the rules of our little contest in a future post. Suffice it to say that you will get your worthless arse pounded, like you usually do.

What a penetrating idiot

[danshan11]

KVB you keep saying "I have a ways to go" can you specify what the heck you mean by that, I really would like to know, thanks in advance.

I am not sure really honestly but if you have 2 talented modelers and they are both successful, what the heck is there to talk about between them?

[nash13]

I have correlated plays based on public opinion and sports specific parameters.
I can tell you that pace is the most determining factor in calculating totals in basketball.
The public and the bookmakers can not deal properly with this information.
If the rules change, like this year (shot clock does not reset to 24 seconds after a rebound), it has drastic impact on the betting market.
Same goes with other sports.
If the officiating changes,gives more power to the offensive player, calls penalties more often, this will impact the market very strong.
So there is space for improvement. But everyone is rather staying mystic and cryptic in what they are saying. They fear that someone will steal their crystal ball or anything.
I asked for information about other sports. No response.

[danshan11]

that is smart Nash, I dont have the advanced skills to quantify ref changes or rules. I model purely on the line and how the line settled. My primary goal is to establish what the closing line will be and bet accordingly when limits go up. I use fairlay so when to bet is not a science because you never really know there when they will add more orders to pick up. I use an api to place bets at defined points where the line is where I want it. Sometimes those orders I can fill instantly sometimes I need to wait for volume or price to be right for me to take it and that is the art part.

I cannot quantify in an actual value to the line some of the things you consider. Everyone uses pace to determine totals and I think if you try and use pace to determine totals you will get yourself back at a 50-50 spot on them but of course purely my opinion nothing backs this!

[danshan11]

I have correlated plays based on public opinion and sports specific parameters.
I can tell you that pace is the most determining factor in calculating totals in basketball.
The public and the bookmakers can not deal properly with this information.
If the rules change, like this year (shot clock does not reset to 24 seconds after a rebound), it has drastic impact on the betting market.
Same goes with other sports.
If the officiating changes,gives more power to the offensive player, calls penalties more often, this will impact the market very strong.
So there is space for improvement. But everyone is rather staying mystic and cryptic in what they are saying. They fear that someone will steal their crystal ball or anything.
I asked for information about other sports. No response.

what makes you think bookmakers cannot account for this correctly when it seems in the NBA and NCAA the books are very good at setting totals!

O/U:	14544-14649-572 (0.39, 49.8%)

O/U:	21747-21940-535 (0.55, 49.8%)

those aree the NBA and NCAABB records of the line over the past 15 years or so, I would say from that they got a pretty good grip on what the total should be!

[danshan11]

Seriously, BigDaddy taking it our of the serious mode, he really is trying to pass off upper 3 and 4 digit chalk win percentages as spreads. Notice how he left that out and keeps swearing by the percentages.

Can't have a discussion with posters who have an agenda to make themselves somehow look good.

BigDaddy not being honest here, that's not good for the think tank, he's not describing typical behavior of someone doing this as a business or a "pro."

Guy read a couple books and can quote them, but that doesn't mean he understands what it even says.

Pretty soon he'll be talking about how he can kick everyone's ass and how he's killed before and will do it again to all of us.

It gets ridiculous.

My posts may seem like trolling, but I am warning everyone in this thread that BigDaddy is not being honest and will let his ego get in the way any serious discussion. So many of us have been down that road with him.

this is why I say I win 52.5% of the time against a line of 49.8%, puts it into real perspective and I am darn proud of my record to be honest, this is over a huge sample size

[nash13]

games	ATS W - L- P (marg, %win)	Avg Line	OU W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	SU W - L (marg, %win)	SDQL
1189	575-590-24 (-0.23, 49.4%)	-3.5	567-600-22 (0.02, 48.6%)	199.0	718-471 (3.23, 60.4%)	season = 1995
1189	558-605-26 (-0.59, 48.0%)	-3.1	617-552-20 (0.75, 52.8%)	193.1	684-505 (2.56, 57.5%)	season = 1996
1189	573-587-29 (-0.06, 49.4%)	-3.0	592-573-24 (0.42, 50.8%)	190.7	708-481 (2.95, 59.5%)	season = 1997
725	353-355-17 (0.37, 49.9%)	-3.1	377-338-10 (0.74, 52.7%)	182.4	452-273 (3.44, 62.3%)	season = 1998
1189	591-580-18 (0.29, 50.5%)	-3.2	591-580-18 (0.35, 50.5%)	194.6	726-463 (3.54, 61.1%)	season = 1999
1189	585-586-18 (-0.25, 50.0%)	-3.2	577-596-16 (0.60, 49.2%)	189.0	711-478 (2.92, 59.8%)	season = 2000
1189	575-600-14 (-0.01, 48.9%)	-3.4	583-588-18 (0.35, 49.8%)	190.6	703-486 (3.39, 59.1%)	season = 2001
1276	646-605-25 (0.44, 51.6%)	-3.4	654-610-12 (0.90, 51.7%)	189.4	800-476 (3.86, 62.7%)	season = 2002
1271	645-607-19 (0.19, 51.5%)	-3.6	606-645-20 (-0.12, 48.4%)	186.2	789-482 (3.79, 62.1%)	season = 2003
1314	643-640-31 (-0.25, 50.1%)	-3.4	653-641-20 (0.73, 50.5%)	193.7	791-523 (3.19, 60.2%)	season = 2004
1319	631-665-23 (0.05, 48.7%)	-3.4	643-656-20 (0.54, 49.5%)	193.6	802-517 (3.46, 60.8%)	season = 2005
1309	612-673-24 (-0.39, 47.6%)	-3.5	661-632-16 (0.61, 51.1%)	196.3	779-530 (3.09, 59.5%)	season = 2006
1316	655-636-25 (0.21, 50.7%)	-3.5	623-658-35 (0.27, 48.6%)	198.9	803-513 (3.71, 61.0%)	season = 2007
1315	637-651-27 (-0.10, 49.5%)	-3.4	643-650-22 (0.41, 49.7%)	199.1	805-510 (3.31, 61.2%)	season = 2008
1312	624-663-25 (-0.53, 48.5%)	-3.4	632-657-23 (-0.01, 49.0%)	200.5	786-526 (2.84, 59.9%)	season = 2009
1311	613-665-33 (-0.11, 48.0%)	-3.3	626-671-14 (-0.32, 48.3%)	198.7	797-514 (3.20, 60.8%)	season = 2010
1074	530-532-12 (-0.24, 49.9%)	-3.2	506-539-29 (0.26, 48.4%)	191.7	637-437 (2.97, 59.3%)	season = 2011
1314	640-645-29 (-0.05, 49.8%)	-3.3	653-641-20 (0.29, 50.5%)	195.6	806-508 (3.28, 61.3%)	season = 2012
1319	619-676-24 (-0.39, 47.8%)	-3.0	670-626-23 (1.24, 51.7%)	200.6	764-555 (2.61, 57.9%)	season = 2013
1311	620-656-35 (-0.47, 48.6%)	-2.9	598-658-55 (-0.09, 47.6%)	200.2	755-556 (2.39, 57.6%)	season = 2014
1316	664-628-24 (0.29, 51.4%)	-2.7	624-660-32 (0.27, 48.6%)	204.7	782-534 (3.03, 59.4%)	season = 2015
1309	640-642-27 (0.15, 49.9%)	-2.9	649-626-34 (0.64, 50.9%)	210.6	763-546 (3.08, 58.3%)	season = 2016
1312	620-671-21 (-0.29, 48.0%)	-2.7	616-664-32 (0.06, 48.1%)	212.4	770-542 (2.37, 58.7%)	season = 2017
1208	602-581-25 (0.10, 50.9%)	-2.7	583-588-37 (0.67, 49.8%)	221.7	717-491 (2.77, 59.4%)	season = 2018

Since 2014 the points per game, pace and 3pt attempts increased. But the public uses the same old metrics to determine if the game will go over or under the total. The bookies set the line correctly at first sight. But if you scratch deeper into the data you can see that they basicly adjusted to the public, not to the actual game.

[nash13]

Before 2014 the correlation between Offensive Output and total was 0.588, 2014 and beyond that number increased to 0.689.
So if the public is expecting an under from the metrics it is more valuable to take the Over. Wit that strategy my record is 3369-2805. so there you have it. i don't came here to brag about my record. i gave insight and hints. i told you that pace is a determining factor. the public don't knows how to adjust accordingly and if you find the games where the public is expecting a Over go for the Under and vice versa. And by public i don't mean the money they put on it. I mean the characteristic numbers in pace, FGA, 3PTA, FTS...