1. #1
    danshan11
    I am good at coin flips, I really am!
    danshan11's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-08-17
    Posts: 3,619
    Betpoints: 6416

    ROI vs Units vs Win% , what is good for what?

    I see guys post units as a record-keeping method

    like 58-47 +12 units and I think this would be great if you only bet 1 unit per bet and did not fluctuate, but if you sometimes bet 1 and sometimes 10 units, units are not a good option to use, right?

    ROI% like 58-47 37% ROI and I think that could easily be not very indicative of talent because of different bet amounts and the so many different ways take simple ROI total bet / won amt. if you bet $10 a game and lose $100 and then bet $500 next game, I would say ROI is not very indicative of the talent

    Win% sure it's great but only if you put your avg line up

    A guy is writing 74% win % over last 200 games now if those are -105 games that is awesome if they are average -300 games not so good. So win% is useless unless you post win% 56% avg line 52%

    what is the right way?

  2. #2
    bettingman6
    bettingman6's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-20-18
    Posts: 496
    Betpoints: 512

    Units are the best measure.

  3. #3
    danshan11
    I am good at coin flips, I really am!
    danshan11's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-08-17
    Posts: 3,619
    Betpoints: 6416

    Quote Originally Posted by bettingman6 View Post
    Units are the best measure.
    what about when someone bets 10 units sometimes and 1 other times, how can units be a good measure? can you elaborate on your thoughts?

    say for 100 days I bet one unit and I am down 65 units and now today I bet 70 units on 1 game and win and now I am up 5 units, am I skilled?

  4. #4
    bettingman6
    bettingman6's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-20-18
    Posts: 496
    Betpoints: 512

    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    what about when someone bets 10 units sometimes and 1 other times, how can units be a good measure? can you elaborate on your thoughts?

    say for 100 days I bet one unit and I am down 65 units and now today I bet 70 units on 1 game and win and now I am up 5 units, am I skilled?

    No. But that would mean you bet a ridiculous amount on one game.

    Another problem with units is that, if you bet 1 unit on every game, winning games where you bet on the underdog is more important than winning bets on favorites, if all you bet on is the moneyline.

    For example, assume that Person A bets on 7 different +100 teams, who all win, and 3 different -400 teams, who all lose. Person B bets on 7 different +100 teams, who all lose, and 3 different -400 teams, who all win. Person B will actually end up with a bigger profit than Person A (5 units to 4 units), but Person A will probably have better long term success.
    Last edited by bettingman6; 03-14-19 at 04:05 PM.

  5. #5
    danshan11
    I am good at coin flips, I really am!
    danshan11's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-08-17
    Posts: 3,619
    Betpoints: 6416

    so what is the right way to do it, you said units but now you seem to be going against that choice

  6. #6
    bettingman6
    bettingman6's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-20-18
    Posts: 496
    Betpoints: 512

    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    so what is the right way to do it, you said units but now you seem to be going against that choice
    I'd go with units, at least in the long term. In a small sample size like 10 bets, harder to say.

    Otter probably has a >80% win percentage with all the ridiculous favorites he takes on the moneyline. Maybe even >85%. That doesn't mean he's a profitable gambler.
    Last edited by bettingman6; 03-14-19 at 04:54 PM.

  7. #7
    gojetsgomoxies
    gojetsgomoxies's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-04-12
    Posts: 3,054
    Betpoints: 6071

    the biggest issue i think is people start threads and then continue them if they're betting works well. but don't continue the threads if things don't go well... then a couple of months later they do it all over again......... and i am guilty of this myself

  8. #8
    danshan11
    I am good at coin flips, I really am!
    danshan11's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-08-17
    Posts: 3,619
    Betpoints: 6416

    the biggest problem is people confuse noobies with the BS
    +34 Units and that was one big hail mary 50 unit bet after a horrible record
    or say they win 67% and their avg line is -400

  9. #9
    gojetsgomoxies
    gojetsgomoxies's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-04-12
    Posts: 3,054
    Betpoints: 6071

    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    the biggest problem is people confuse noobies with the BS
    +34 Units and that was one big hail mary 50 unit bet after a horrible record
    or say they win 67% and their avg line is -400
    i don't think too many people on forums do this knowingly. it's a big tactic for marketing services....... that recent example of the UFC bettor with the 75% win rate, i honestly think he didn't know

    one thing i always is you so much action for statistical significance that by the time you achieve it you have no idea if you are a winner today. big parts of your winning record are from 4 years ago.

  10. #10
    tsty
    tsty's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-27-16
    Posts: 467
    Betpoints: 4033

    $$$$$ (over a decent amount of bets since you will always argue some semantic point that doesn't matter) ainec

    especially since the whole point of this is to make the most money....

  11. #11
    oilcountry99
    oilcountry99's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-29-10
    Posts: 499
    Betpoints: 3481

    delete post
    Last edited by oilcountry99; 03-15-19 at 06:51 AM.

  12. #12
    TPowell
    TPowell's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-21-08
    Posts: 18,725
    Betpoints: 187

    ROI is the best method long term IMO. Short term, who cares? A blind monkey can make money sports betting in the short term

  13. #13
    danshan11
    I am good at coin flips, I really am!
    danshan11's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-08-17
    Posts: 3,619
    Betpoints: 6416

    I agree ROI and units but its the methods people use to check their results

    Roi is horrible when you bet 1 dollar 1000 times and 1000 2 times, ROI, in this case, would not be a good indicator

  14. #14
    danshan11
    I am good at coin flips, I really am!
    danshan11's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-08-17
    Posts: 3,619
    Betpoints: 6416

    reality is only 1 way
    win% to paid%
    54% win % and 52% paid percentage, that is the true indicator and you use CLV to know how you are currently doing, clv is more like a fuel gauge!

    When I say CLV what I really mean is expected ROI based on paid price to closing price

  15. #15
    tsty
    tsty's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-27-16
    Posts: 467
    Betpoints: 4033

    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    reality is only 1 way
    win% to paid%
    54% win % and 52% paid percentage, that is the true indicator and you use CLV to know how you are currently doing, clv is more like a fuel gauge!

    When I say CLV what I really mean is expected ROI based on paid price to closing price
    so according to your logic if I make 1 million dollars per year at 1% edge then I am less skilled than someone who makes 10k at 10% edge?

    you guys are penetrating clowns lol

  16. #16
    Sawyer
    Sawyer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-01-09
    Posts: 7,347
    Betpoints: 3939

    ROI can be misleading. A handicapper with %5 ROI may make more money then a handicapper with %10 ROI. Volume is also important. Total Units Won (based on risking 1 unit each game) is the best indicator. We pay the bills with units and the money, not stats like ROI and Win Rate.

    However, stay away from scammers who risks 1 unit on a game and then he releases play of the century with a stake of 100 units.

  17. #17
    danshan11
    I am good at coin flips, I really am!
    danshan11's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-08-17
    Posts: 3,619
    Betpoints: 6416

    Quote Originally Posted by Sawyer View Post
    ROI can be misleading. A handicapper with %5 ROI may make more money then a handicapper with %10 ROI. Volume is also important. Total Units Won (based on risking 1 unit each game) is the best indicator. We pay the bills with units and the money, not stats like ROI and Win Rate.

    However, stay away from scammers who risks 1 unit on a game and then he releases play of the century with a stake of 100 units.
    correct that is the problem with units, it can be misleading to yourself and if you share it with others, it is a typical practice for scammer touts. with the varied units bet, units is not a good measure. now if you bet 1 unit every time then units is a great measure.

  18. #18
    danshan11
    I am good at coin flips, I really am!
    danshan11's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-08-17
    Posts: 3,619
    Betpoints: 6416

    Quote Originally Posted by tsty View Post
    so according to your logic if I make 1 million dollars per year at 1% edge then I am less skilled than someone who makes 10k at 10% edge?

    you guys are penetrating clowns lol
    I do not see anything in my logic that states that in any way.
    and who said I have any logic anyway?
    how do you determine your edge, tsty?

  19. #19
    danshan11
    I am good at coin flips, I really am!
    danshan11's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-08-17
    Posts: 3,619
    Betpoints: 6416

    I use to solely depend on CLV for skill but I am now thinking CLV is better as a current gauge. We can track money made and all kinds of stuff but in reality we dont know when our edge is gone if we dont use CLV. not knowing when your edge is gone until you are bankrupt is not a good method.
    say we actually have an edge now, so we start betting and we are making money!!!! but how do we know when that edge is washed up? I think that is where CLV comes in and can be very helpful

  20. #20
    Raywinner
    Raywinner's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-16-19
    Posts: 227
    Betpoints: 10

    Plain and simple way to get a edge. Your thinking things out the hard way, keep it simple with the system you have (seems to me you know the NBA half descent) Make your Bets 1 to 3% of your purse and then watch your account grow. When you start betting more then the 3% your taking more of a risk (after all it's all about the risk you want to take) Stick with the best sport you know.

  21. #21
    danshan11
    I am good at coin flips, I really am!
    danshan11's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-08-17
    Posts: 3,619
    Betpoints: 6416

    Quote Originally Posted by Raywinner View Post
    Plain and simple way to get a edge. Your thinking things out the hard way, keep it simple with the system you have (seems to me you know the NBA half descent) Make your Bets 1 to 3% of your purse and then watch your account grow. When you start betting more then the 3% your taking more of a risk (after all it's all about the risk you want to take) Stick with the best sport you know.
    what is the plain and simple way to get an edge?
    why 1 to 3% of bankroll, what if I am betting an average line of +600, would 1 to 3% work?

  22. #22
    Larkman
    Larkman's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-03-18
    Posts: 22
    Betpoints: 572

    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    but how do we know when that edge is washed up?
    If you have a model that is more accurate than the market then by definition losing your edge will manifest itself as the market converging on the output probabilities of your model. Its almost impossible for it to come as a surprise.

  23. #23
    tsty
    tsty's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-27-16
    Posts: 467
    Betpoints: 4033

    Quote Originally Posted by Larkman View Post
    If you have a model that is more accurate than the market then by definition losing your edge will manifest itself as the market converging on the output probabilities of your model. Its almost impossible for it to come as a surprise.
    don't bother brother

    it's pointless talking to him

  24. #24
    KAVIYATSIA
    KAVIYATSIA's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-22-19
    Posts: 2
    Betpoints: 12

    Quote Originally Posted by bettingman6 View Post
    No. But that would mean you bet a ridiculous amount on one game.

    Another problem with units is that,FileZilla Malwarebytes Rufus if you bet 1 unit on every game, winning games where you bet on the underdog is more important than winning bets on favorites, if all you bet on is the moneyline.

    For example, assume that Person A bets on 7 different +100 teams, who all win, and 3 different -400 teams, who all lose. Person B bets on 7 different +100 teams, who all lose, and 3 different -400 teams, who all win. Person B will actually end up with a bigger profit than Person A (5 units to 4 units), but Person A will probably have better long term success.
    ROI% like 58-47 37% ROI and I think that could easily be not very indicative of talent because of different bet amounts and the so many different ways take simple ROI total bet / won amt. if you bet $10 a game and lose $100 and then bet $500 next game, I would say ROI is not very indicative of the talent

    ROI% like 58-47 37% ROI and I think that could easily be not very indicative of talent because of different bet amounts and the so many different ways take simple ROI total bet / won amt. if you bet $10 a game and lose $100 and then bet $500 next game, I would say ROI is not very indicative of the talent
    Last edited by KAVIYATSIA; 03-22-19 at 02:36 PM.

  25. #25
    FinalFrontier
    FinalFrontier's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-18-11
    Posts: 17
    Betpoints: 30

    Profit on Turnover (POT) is a far better metric to use than ROI. Just my 2 cents.

  26. #26
    danshan11
    I am good at coin flips, I really am!
    danshan11's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-08-17
    Posts: 3,619
    Betpoints: 6416

    Quote Originally Posted by FinalFrontier View Post
    Profit on Turnover (POT) is a far better metric to use than ROI. Just my 2 cents.
    what is profit on turnover, give me an example

  27. #27
    nash13
    nash13's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-21-14
    Posts: 934
    Betpoints: 5827

    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    what is profit on turnover, give me an example
    https://www.punters.com.au/forum/hor...N-OF-POT_4889/
    Points Awarded:

    danshan11 gave nash13 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  28. #28
    danshan11
    I am good at coin flips, I really am!
    danshan11's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-08-17
    Posts: 3,619
    Betpoints: 6416

    very interesting and I like it! at the end of the day it is all about the money! Thank you

Top