Originally Posted by
gojetsgomoxies
Dan, i mostly agree with you...
but that University of Chicago top financial professor suggests that the game outcome reverses the "open to close" movement and game outcomes end up back near the open, which i find hard to believe. but that's what it said.
2 things i will say,
i don't like studies that go back too far......... how betting was in 1998 is not highly relevent to today, other than timeless fear/greed type ideas. of course, you need a sufficient number of years of data but not too many i think
in the nba especially, you would definitely have to ignore massive line movements because most of those are based on new information, not market efficiency, per se.