1. #1
    danshan11
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    return question

    I am right now
    357 wins and 321 losses and 6 pushes actually won 52.65%
    avg line bet was 49.48% and avg closed line was 51.48%

    so say you subtract avg juice of 1% means I should win 50.48% right?

    what would I expect to see down the road with these numbers so far? it looks like to me I should win 50.48% long term and that would give me a 1% return on all my bets is that true or what am I doing wrong because 52.65% is variance cause I should only win 50.48%?

  2. #2
    Sharpes
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    Average juice of 1% is too low for a realistic option, even if you are shopping multiple books.

  3. #3
    danshan11
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    nba usually runs about 2% total on the vig so you figure half on each side, so about 1%, what am I calculating wrong here, help me out

  4. #4
    gojetsgomoxies
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    doing this from memory. i think vig is a quarter of the line. so a quarter of -7 or -10. so 1.75% to 2.5%.

    i don't understand all your number but subtract 2% or so from your win rate for your juiced win rate.

    ROI would be WR x 100 + (1-WR)*(-110) DIVIDED by 100.... so i think 52.5% is break-even for -110....

  5. #5
    danshan11
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    if the vig on an NBA game is 2% total for both sides, wouldnt that be 1% per side? I am also assuming no fave long bias on ATS close to 50-50 spreads

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  7. #7
    danshan11
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    Yes thanks Rudy. My confusion is how someone can have a long term roi so high if the line movement is not

  8. #8
    RudyRuetigger
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    what are you using as the closing line?
    175 pts

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  9. #9
    danshan11
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    I use pinny always

  10. #10
    danshan11
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    look at this



    as you can see by this

    if you bet at the best spot
    +123 44.84%
    and it closed at
    +106 48.54%

    assume true line is 47.3% juice on game was 2.5% total

    so you got 44.84 and it closed at 47.3 leaves you 2.45% of value

    assume this happened a 1000 times on every game what would your return be?
    Last edited by danshan11; 02-13-19 at 01:13 PM.

  11. #11
    RudyRuetigger
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    best of luck with the answers you want
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  12. #12
    danshan11
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    thanks

  13. #13
    zorba74
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    if you bet at the best spot
    +123 44.84%
    and it closed at
    +106 48.54%

    assume true line is 47.3% juice on game was 2.5% total

    so you got 44.84 and it closed at 47.3 leaves you 2.45% of value

    assume this happened a 1000 times on every game what would your return be?
    Expected Return ~5.5% under you assumptions.

  14. #14
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by zorba74 View Post
    Expected Return ~5.5% under you assumptions.
    can you show your work, so I understand please

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    oilcountry99
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    deleted post

  16. #16
    zorba74
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    can you show your work, so I understand please
    Sure but I believe Poster HeeHaw (sorry if incorrect) already explained this to you:

    Market Price * Fair Probability = Expected Return

    2.23 (+123) * .473 = 1.055 (5.5%).... anything over 1, is your perceived edge or Expected Return

  17. #17
    danshan11
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    thanks

  18. #18
    Raywinner
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    I am right now
    357 wins and 321 losses and 6 pushes actually won 52.65%
    avg line bet was 49.48% and avg closed line was 51.48%

    so say you subtract avg juice of 1% means I should win 50.48% right?

    what would I expect to see down the road with these numbers so far? it looks like to me I should win 50.48% long term and that would give me a 1% return on all my bets is that true or what am I doing wrong because 52.65% is variance cause I should only win 50.48%?
    These are about the records and stats I would expect when using variance (very little profit, if any) cutting down on your picks would be a good start, specially if you know the sport very well. (Just a Thought)

  19. #19
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raywinner View Post
    These are about the records and stats I would expect when using variance (very little profit, if any) cutting down on your picks would be a good start, specially if you know the sport very well. (Just a Thought)
    what do you mean using variance? why would you cut down on picks?

  20. #20
    Raywinner
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    Quote Originally Posted by zorba74 View Post
    Sure but I believe Poster HeeHaw (sorry if incorrect) already explained this to you:

    Market Price * Fair Probability = Expected Return

    2.23 (+123) * .473 = 1.055 (5.5%).... anything over 1, is your perceived edge or Expected Return
    This guy knows what he is talking about (You need to follow him for awhile and receive a edge on betting)

  21. #21
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    what do you mean using variance? why would you cut down on picks?
    you never answered again because you have zero clue how betting really works. if you actually answered these questions people would see the level of betting intelligence you have and would know whether to follow you or not

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