1. #1
    danshan11
    I am good at coin flips, I really am!
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    Right or Wrong? better chance to win 1 out 1 instead of 500 out 1000 counting juice

    ok so I flip a coin one time at -105
    50-50 chance to win
    now if I flip a coin 10000 times at -105
    I have a very low chance to actually end up winning

    so my argument is this
    a bettor who does not actually have an edge needs to bet as few bets as possible to actually increase their chance of winning, less bets keeps variance very in play. Now a bettor with an actual edge needs as many bets as possible, the more the merrier to make sure they are overcoming variance.

    right or wrong? I know I am not stating this very clearly but the thought was in my head and makes sense, is this true? I am not looking at it from a book standpoint, I am talking about 1 coin flip for 1 guy not the books cumulative coin flips of 1 million 1 flip guys.

  2. #2
    trytrytry
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    yes somewhat correct if you are going to do any -EV wager (ie bad bet with negative long term return) best is to do a single wager at the lowest amount you need to do to get that special tingle or get it out of your system.

    the reason I say somewhat correct is you would (you would have to do the math a bit to get better examples) its better to do say 1000 -105 coin flips for 1 cent each (granted you have only a small chance of being up, you will lose be negative at the end of almost all sequences , than do one flip for say for $100 (yes you are 50% up ~$97 but also and 50% down a lot $100.


    If you are going to increase your chances of winning something (like leaving up even if its a few units) bet as few times as possible (like once as you say) if minus EV like your example

    but best is to just know you know the correct thing to do and Pass on it totally. when you can do that you have arrived

    interestingly its somewhat the opposite if you are in a situation that you have say +105, you want to never go too big as you dont want to lose all / most your money on a series of fluctuations and not have a chance to take advantage over time. in that case the optimal amount to risk is calculated form a Kelly Criterion (lots of thread here and on WEB) or perhaps slightly less than that calculated amount full amount depending on how you handle emotionally a series of losses. When you have an edge even a slight one you never want to revenge bet or double up or have emotion come into it even if fluctuations give you a poor streak
    Last edited by trytrytry; 02-06-19 at 10:38 AM.

  3. #3
    danshan11
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    I think the moral of the story is most people bet way too many times. if you truly have an edge bet as many times as possible but if you dont have an edge, just take a shot.

    I got a better chance of making 1 free throw than I do of making 51 out of 100 if I have zero skill
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  4. #4
    trytrytry
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    I think the moral of the story is most people bet way too many times. if you truly have an edge bet as many times as possible but if you dont have an edge, just take a shot.

    I got a better chance of making 1 free throw than I do of making 51 out of 100 if I have zero skill
    yes and that is why there are big buildings out in places like Vegas! most people there even if playing as smart as they can bet sequences of plays numerous in nature that the have a low probability of positive over time (but not zero some do get that lucky positive sequence, which is also good for business and return visits!)

  5. #5
    PaperTrail07
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    the management of most people helps build those places as well.....table max's.....its ALL there haha

  6. #6
    Raywinner
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    ok so I flip a coin one time at -105
    50-50 chance to win
    now if I flip a coin 10000 times at -105
    I have a very low chance to actually end up winning

    so my argument is this
    a bettor who does not actually have an edge needs to bet as few bets as possible to actually increase their chance of winning, less bets keeps variance very in play. Now a bettor with an actual edge needs as many bets as possible, the more the merrier to make sure they are overcoming variance.

    right or wrong? I know I am not stating this very clearly but the thought was in my head and makes sense, is this true? I am not looking at it from a book standpoint, I am talking about 1 coin flip for 1 guy not the books cumulative coin flips of 1 million 1 flip guys.
    The problem is when you say about flipping coins (PUNTER THINKING) You need to dig into the stats more and make a sound decision to play or pass but must place a value on the pick. After performing the homework, rate your best bets with the system you have and then just bet them and NO more. Remember to only bet approx. 1 to 3% of purse (only trying to help)

  7. #7
    danshan11
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    what would be a sound decision? do you model games and generate a fair number for that game? why only bet 1 to 3% of my bankroll? dont you think betting 1 to 3% would be unwise if my avg line was +600 or -600?

  8. #8
    Raywinner
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    what would be a sound decision? do you model games and generate a fair number for that game? why only bet 1 to 3% of my bankroll? dont you think betting 1 to 3% would be unwise if my avg line was +600 or -600?
    What I mean by sound decision is basically deciding what teams to play after performing all your homework. Betting only 1 to 3% of purse allows longer play plus the purse will grow if you stick with what you know (For me that is college basketball) YOU WILL pick more winners then losers If KNOW the sport and gradually your purse will GROW! It is kind of simple when you figure it out (Took me approx. 5 years of constant betting) to figure out a system that works and you have to admit I know my college basketball. Like I said before, I plan on making approx. at least 5,000 during the big Dance, if I earn a little less, well then it will still be GOOD.

  9. #9
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raywinner View Post
    What I mean by sound decision is basically deciding what teams to play after performing all your homework. Betting only 1 to 3% of purse allows longer play plus the purse will grow if you stick with what you know (For me that is college basketball) YOU WILL pick more winners then losers If KNOW the sport and gradually your purse will GROW! It is kind of simple when you figure it out (Took me approx. 5 years of constant betting) to figure out a system that works and you have to admit I know my college basketball. Like I said before, I plan on making approx. at least 5,000 during the big Dance, if I earn a little less, well then it will still be GOOD.
    your answer is vague and does not address the questions specifically.
    betting 1 to 3% of my BR is not suggested if I am betting +400 or -400 bets, you have that part completely wrong
    do your homework you are not doing any homework you are flipping coins. you never beat the line and your record is starting to come back to human. you got lucky and got a few winners and now you can see you are coming back near to 50-50. look at your record over the last 10 plays. if you continue on with your current rate you will be right back at 500 where you should be "doing your homework". you have not even a slight understanding of how this game works!
    you are completely wrong on the learn from 4 losers , that is funny crazy and incompetent at best
    you are completely wrong on the overcoming variance, I am not sure you even understand the term and if you do you surely do not know how to overcome it.
    you have a total of 30 picks posted and you think 30 picks can show skill when you never beat the line and have a sample size of 30, give me a break
    you keep spewing that tout crap trying to use our conversations to draw victims in. I hope you are not charging or touting any members from here with your garbage!

  10. #10
    danshan11
    I am good at coin flips, I really am!
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    @Raywinner. Like I said before if you want to bet betpoints with me I will book every bet you got

  11. #11
    eaglesfan371
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    Correct.

    I've told this in theory to a few friends. If you're going to gamble and want to win, do it on one wager and never bet again. You have a better chance of winning overall in your lifetime this way.

    What would be different would be your standard deviation and variance.

    Another example.

    If you bet -1000 over 10000 bets, at a specified edge (regardless of +/-)

    you will have a higher variance and likely varying result compared to

    betting +1000 over 10000 bets at the same edge.
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