1. #1
    phuzface
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    Join Date: 04-30-14
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    2018 NFL regular season individual player performance odds archive

    First of all, my apologies if I'm posting this in the wrong place--even though I opened an account here several years ago, I've only recently started taking advantage of it.

    I'm in the middle of a career change and am getting a masters in applied statistics. I'm taking a machine learning class with a large final project. I've heard that some online bookmakers offer lines on individual NFL skill players like Todd Gurley o/u ______ yards in a game. I'd like to find data on what those closing lines were during the 2018 NFL regular season. For the project, I'd like to take the first 12 weeks' worth of individual player performance data (attempts, yards, etc.) and program an algorithm that will predict a player's performance in week 13, based on weeks 1-12. Once the algorithm makes it's week 13 predictions, I would like to compare those predictions to what the closing lines were for those players and what the actual outcome was in week 13. I hope this all makes sense

    Is there anywhere I can find such data on what the individual players' betting lines were last season?

    Thanks

  2. #2
    RockBottom
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    You have to factor the opponent in week 13 also. There were weeks that Mahomes underperformed also (Arizona, Jax). The best way to tackle this is to sign up on a fantasy football site (i use fantasyguru - pay site) and this year's projections by week are still on there with comments. Books are pretty lazy on these, basically just copy a projection site and that's the number. That will give you a good start to the lines they put out. Now get the game by game stats and see how they differ. Your model is just a guide, pay attention to injuries - especially late in the week and involving the other teams players.

    The best way to beat these is to play unders.

  3. #3
    Waterstpub87
    Life-Style Arbitrage
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    Quote Originally Posted by phuzface View Post
    First of all, my apologies if I'm posting this in the wrong place--even though I opened an account here several years ago, I've only recently started taking advantage of it.

    I'm in the middle of a career change and am getting a masters in applied statistics. I'm taking a machine learning class with a large final project. I've heard that some online bookmakers offer lines on individual NFL skill players like Todd Gurley o/u ______ yards in a game. I'd like to find data on what those closing lines were during the 2018 NFL regular season. For the project, I'd like to take the first 12 weeks' worth of individual player performance data (attempts, yards, etc.) and program an algorithm that will predict a player's performance in week 13, based on weeks 1-12. Once the algorithm makes it's week 13 predictions, I would like to compare those predictions to what the closing lines were for those players and what the actual outcome was in week 13. I hope this all makes sense

    Is there anywhere I can find such data on what the individual players' betting lines were last season?

    Thanks
    If you have a heritage account, go to My Account->Closing lines. You will have to select each individual date, and copy and paste the lines. It would be under NFL props.
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