1. #1
    a4u2fear's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-29-10
    Posts: 7,924
    Betpoints: 9930

    How to configure a ML

    Team has an estimated win pct of 60% vs "any" competition
    Opponent has an estimated win pct of 50% vs "any" competition

    what would be the proper ML for this game ?

  2. #2
    Life-Style Arbitrage
    Waterstpub87's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 3,308
    Betpoints: 644

    -150/+150. Assuming the average "any" competition is 50%
    175 pts

    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 07/11/2019

  3. #3
    gojetsgomoxies's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-04-12
    Posts: 3,351
    Betpoints: 6570

    because the opponent is 50% WP (average or any team), you can just use the 60% WP for the team as the expected WP......

    what is more interesting is what is the expected winning % of a 70% WP team playing a 35% WP team. not sure there is a right answer. in baseball, the answer is probably 83% or something like that. but i can see situations in local high school football where the WP = 100% (often something like high school football extreme tiering, A kills B kills C kills D etc to team H.. so that would be 8 team league where almost all games are deterministic. you could relax that assumption and have fewer tiers but you could certainly have HS footbal situation where the 70% team is 100% to beat the 35% team.

  4. #4
    Cookie Monster
    Large moneylines
    Cookie Monster's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-05-08
    Posts: 2,188
    Betpoints: 18459

    Bill James invented the log5 formula many years ago. Check it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Log5