1. #1
    a4u2fear
    TEASE IT
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    How to configure a ML

    Team has an estimated win pct of 60% vs "any" competition
    Opponent has an estimated win pct of 50% vs "any" competition

    what would be the proper ML for this game ?

  2. #2
    Waterstpub87
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    -150/+150. Assuming the average "any" competition is 50%
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 07/11/2019


  3. #3
    gojetsgomoxies
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    because the opponent is 50% WP (average or any team), you can just use the 60% WP for the team as the expected WP......

    what is more interesting is what is the expected winning % of a 70% WP team playing a 35% WP team. not sure there is a right answer. in baseball, the answer is probably 83% or something like that. but i can see situations in local high school football where the WP = 100% (often something like high school football extreme tiering, A kills B kills C kills D etc to team H.. so that would be 8 team league where almost all games are deterministic. you could relax that assumption and have fewer tiers but you could certainly have HS footbal situation where the 70% team is 100% to beat the 35% team.

  4. #4
    Cookie Monster
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    Bill James invented the log5 formula many years ago. Check it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Log5

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