Hi folks,
I am getting some weird numbers here and decided to ask you for opinion. So there is the case:
I have set with 195 bets from the begging of 18/19 season. Flat betting at specific local bookie. All bets are in 2-5% value compared to the model which give me 3.40% Expected Yield. Not bad but not a big deal.
However the actual results far away from that number. At the bottom I see +31.90% Actual yield with +62.2 units profit. 75 wins out from 195 bets with average odds 3.73 (+273)
I know that sample is too small and some difference is expected, but should I be worried. Should I expect some huge downtrend?