[tsty]

can you read? If you blindly bet -2.5 on every single match this year you would be profitable

hugely profitable

that's how easy the MLB is

[Waterstpub87]

hard the term which is harder
the way i try and see how "hard" a league is I look at two things
the margin (juice) is it high
then I look at how much the lines move
this tells you how hard a sport is to beat, there is no other tell tale signs, anything else is guessing or personal sentiment. The sharper the line is in that sport and the bigger the margin, the less potential for profit

NOw Bsims might be better or have a better model for the NBA so he thinks it is easier or Tsty may have an MLB model that is killer so he thinks it is easiest but in reality easiest is really defined as
widest gap in line movements from start to finish and the actual margin on the sport in general.

It is difficult to look at the NBA in that fashion, because the lines move so much on a late scratch. So, the fact that the lines move so much is deceptive. If you are not chasing steam, or watching the injury report all day, this adds substantial variance to the rate you would be the close. It could be that these late scratches are more predictable, but I don't have the time to figure out how to predict them.

And, by no means am I slouch at betting NBA. I beat the close normally, especially on totals. But I haven't paid a dollar in vig in baseball in like 3 years. There is less error in MLB, as the main thing that would move the line is the pitcher, and if that changes, my bet gets cancelled. Baseball sides and totals move less based on a late scratch (someone like Bryce Harper) than NBA would on a late scratch (Like Chris Paul). This added variance makes it more difficult to beat, because the larger movements that you are looking at don't account that you can't predict this. Where as in baseball, larger movements are much more predictable.

[Waterstpub87]

I agree, most people would use Pinnacle. But if you look at the final lines for these 3 for the NBA games yesterday, they are all different. I'm not aware of any studies done that demonstrates one is consistently better than the others. I also don't know what metric(s) you would use in doing such a study.

Easiest enough to test:

1. Scrape closing lines from as many books as you would like, sbrodds makes this pretty easy
2. Scrape final game results
3. Compare closing line to results
4. Measure which book has the smallest error

The problem is data quality, because there will be many errors with the close.

Also, if you compare 5Dimes/Pinnacle/Bookmaker/Heritage?, your results are probably not going to be that dramatic.

[u21c3f6]

You keep beating the drum that the closing line is the correct line. That leads me to a few questions. What closing line? It seems to me different books have different closing lines. Then, what metric(s) do you use to say the closing line is the correct line? Finally, given two choices for 2019, which would you choose?

Beat the "closing " line, but lose money, or
Not beat the "closing" line, but make money.

Let me add to what you wrote. A lot of times the line will drift in only one direction. I.e. Team A and team B opens at -4/+4 and the line drifts down to and closes at -3/+3. In this and many other similar scenarios the BTCL theory would say that wagering on team A could never, ever be the right thing to do because you cannot BTCL. This of course would be true if each and every closing line was 50/50 but ...
Joe.

PS. Has anyone seen my magic wand, newspaper and/or cinnamon oil?

[danshan11]

the late second goalie changes make the nhl really up and down for line beaters. i am having the issue iike that with totals now in the nba. the late player moves messing up my total line beaters

[danshan11]

if a magic wand and cinnamon oil work to pick winners how do the books stay open? if I knew I was going to pick winners I would have so many people bet it would be viral how many people were betting

[danshan11]

with all that said, I still have a couple things that freak me out.

1 I do believe there is a group or person or some that can actually go through a group of games and pick winners at a higher rate than the juice. I dont know how but I do think they exist.
2 I am concerned about the quality of closing lines when you have large groups selling picks on certain games and certainly moving lines especially in the smaller games or markets.

I am only speculating with these 2 comments because I have never ever seen a long term "picker" winner and I am not sure if these lines were supposed to be moved and that is why these large groups choose them so it all washes out.

[dpark80]

if a magic wand and cinnamon oil work to pick winners how do the books stay open? if I knew I was going to pick winners I would have so many people bet it would be viral how many people were betting

Have you heard about the story about the goose that laid the golden egg? If I had a model that could reliably pick winners greater than 55% of the time, I wouldn't tell anyone about this model. I'd share my picks with a few of my closest friends, but that's about it.

My NBA model, which I started to use to bet on NBA games since January 2018 from last season up to now has gone 97-57-3 ATS (63%). Out of that total, this season it has gone 16-12 (57.14%) so far. Hopefully I can stay above 57% the rest of this year. My model identifies about 15-20% of NBA games have an edge. The rest are pretty much 50-50 outcome.

[vampire assassin]

Have you heard about the story about the goose that laid the golden egg? If I had a model that could reliably pick winners greater than 55% of the time, I wouldn't tell anyone about this model. I'd share my picks with a few of my closest friends, but that's about it.

My NBA model, which I started to use to bet on NBA games since January 2018 from last season up to now has gone 97-57-3 ATS (63%). Out of that total, this season it has gone 16-12 (57.14%) so far. Hopefully I can stay above 57% the rest of this year. My model identifies about 15-20% of NBA games have an edge. The rest are pretty much 50-50 outcome.

Why mention it if you cannot discuss it?

[danshan11]

oh so you just pick winners at about a 60% rate long term? that is amazing first person I ever met that does that. I think the chances of doing that is really really rare, I am sure someone can share the actual chances of that over 1000 games.

I got something from Joe B about the chances of someone doing something similar in the NBA

If he has no skill then no chance (1 in about 10 trillion). If he has the skill of a 53% handicapper then it's about 1 in 100 million. If he's one of the world's best with a 57% base rate then it's still about 1 in 1,000. So basically no, not a hope. If he does, he's cheating.

[danshan11]

if I could pick at a 60% rate I would bet every penny I have sell my house and cars and bet that money too and I would tell every human in the earth for a small cut of their winnings for their bets from my picks.

[dpark80]

if I could pick at a 60% rate I would bet every penny I have sell my house and cars and bet that money too and I would tell every human in the earth for a small cut of their winnings for their bets from my picks.

Oh yeah, I would go crazy on betting too if I knew I could pick at a 60% rate. The problem is, when can you be sure that you can sustain that 60% rate. I've picked 157 games so far. What is the confidence level that I can sustain greater than 55% based on the results I've received from just 157 games.

I'm betting $55 to win $50 for each game right now. If I can keep the winnings up, I'll slowly start ramping up to bigger bets.

[dpark80]

Why mention it if you cannot discuss it?

I enjoy discussions at a high level on modeling to look for an edge on sports betting. Also, who else wouldn't want to brag a little if they've found a way to beat the vig (not saying that I've found a way).

[danshan11]

Oh yeah, I would go crazy on betting too if I knew I could pick at a 60% rate. The problem is, when can you be sure that you can sustain that 60% rate. I've picked 157 games so far. What is the confidence level that I can sustain greater than 55% based on the results I've received from just 157 games.

I'm betting $55 to win $50 for each game right now. If I can keep the winnings up, I'll slowly start ramping up to bigger bets.

I would say do the math on how you are doing against the line and see if your clv matches your win loss record, that would be very indicative of future results

[dpark80]

Hey, it seems like you witnessed firsthand someone winning at a 60% plus pick rate in your thread below. How is that guy doing now by the way? Has he cooled off?

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...pper-ever.html

oh so you just pick winners at about a 60% rate long term? that is amazing first person I ever met that does that. I think the chances of doing that is really really rare, I am sure someone can share the actual chances of that over 1000 games.

I got something from Joe B about the chances of someone doing something similar in the NBA

If he has no skill then no chance (1 in about 10 trillion). If he has the skill of a 53% handicapper then it's about 1 in 100 million. If he's one of the world's best with a 57% base rate then it's still about 1 in 1,000. So basically no, not a hope. If he does, he's cheating.

[danshan11]

yes he is cooled back to human numbers good old fashion 50.2% over last 50 or so games

[dpark80]

Oh wow, that was a hell of a run though at 60%+ over 180+ games.

yes he is cooled back to human numbers good old fashion 50.2% over last 50 or so games

[danshan11]

that is the beauty of the line it accounts for "runs" world is back to normal and is still spinning, I must admit he had me believing for a minute that someone could "pick" winners but reality set in and he is back to human status

[TommieGunshot]

with all that said, I still have a couple things that freak me out.

1 I do believe there is a group or person or some that can actually go through a group of games and pick winners at a higher rate than the juice. I dont know how but I do think they exist.
2 I am concerned about the quality of closing lines when you have large groups selling picks on certain games and certainly moving lines especially in the smaller games or markets.

I am only speculating with these 2 comments because I have never ever seen a long term "picker" winner and I am not sure if these lines were supposed to be moved and that is why these large groups choose them so it all washes out.

There are people who do make bets that are good enough to beat the juice. They end up earning a lot of money. So much money that they can end up being the ones to shape the line when they make their limit bets

The only pick sellers I've ever heard of moving lines have been Dr Bob -- which ended years ago -- and RAS -- which seems limited to mostly in game betting. Any others?

[danshan11]

RAS is one I know of who does move lines but I am sure some of the big dummy finders on twitter move lines when they put out picks and of course the auto betting networks now must have some impact stuff like smartbet.io

[TommieGunshot]

RAS is one I know of who does move lines but I am sure some of the big dummy finders on twitter move lines when they put out picks and of course the auto betting networks now must have some impact stuff like smartbet.io

Very easy to test -- and all the tests I've seen show they don't.

[danshan11]

do you have any links or anything for those tests. I would love to see those results. Remember I was giving my hypo not a fact. I dont know either of these 2 facts as I stated but I do believe these 2 things!

[TommieGunshot]

The best man I know of for keeping track of guys who release their picks is ComptrBob. A lot of his tracking has been lost or hard to find, but the ones that do come up on google searches always show they guys to be virtual dart throwers.

[tsty]

lol ras

pure scum

[Debacleov]

I heard RAS has been getting buried for a while now

Is that true?

[tsty]

Years but they keep giving fake results or picks where the max bet is 500 lol

Why else these clowns on private forums

Imagine paying thousands yearly for picks where the max bet is 500 lol

[danshan11]

The best man I know of for keeping track of guys who release their picks is ComptrBob. A lot of his tracking has been lost or hard to find, but the ones that do come up on google searches always show they guys to be virtual dart throwers.

I dont track results or endorse or believe in ANY touts. I simply said that they move the line

[KVB]

There are people who do make bets that are good enough to beat the juice. They end up earning a lot of money. So much money that they can end up being the ones to shape the line when they make their limit bets...

We did this in two sports this year.

This, thread, is the what the think tank can come up with?

DanShan, just post in Player's Talk. That is where your threads belong.

[danshan11]

this is not my thread, and until you get a sheriffs badge Barney Fife mind your own business, wannabe!

and also who is we, you got a mouse in your pocket?

[tsty]

Touts are the scum of the industry

Nobody winning will ever give their lines away

Legit worse than books

Not surprises that sbr lets these clowns run wild when they get paid off by books too

[Debacleov]

Years but they keep giving fake results or picks where the max bet is 500 lol

Why else these clowns on private forums

Imagine paying thousands yearly for picks where the max bet is 500 lol

What do you mean giving picks when the max bet is 500?

[danshan11]

he is saying you are paying a big fee to the tout and they are giving picks on small market stuff and its hard to make money on an expensive tout service when the max bet is 500. I dont know this is true but I do know they play lots of 1H and 2nd half plays not sure what the limits are and why you cant just hit 10 books if you want to get down 5 grand instead of 500 but whatever. I am not a fan of RAS they own BT and they booted me from the forum ( mainly because I talk too much as we all know) but they did it shitty they waited to make sure the football season had started and that I did not sign up before they kicked me out. I deserved the kick out no doubt( I did not fit the mold and I was annoying to lots of members as I am here as well) but BT is a tout farm and if you are not one of his little buddies or a paying tout service customer you get no love there.

[Combato]

I ran a Z score on your results. Not an exact way to determine statistical significance but a decent surrogate

Your data has a Z score of 2.79 which translates into a P value that would be considered ss. Your 55% edge is probably valid based on the Z score.

[Bsims]

We did this in two sports this year.

This, thread, is the what the think tank can come up with?

DanShan, just post in Player's Talk. That is where your threads belong.

I agree with KVB about this thread. It's becoming more useless over time. While I respect some of the stuff you've claimed to have done danshan11, I do wish you would take the volume of your discussion to another thread like KVB suggests. You have claimed to be "annoying to lots of members as I am here as well". I honestly don't understand why anyone would be proud of this. I remember when you joined this thread you said it was because you wanted to learn. As far as I can see you haven't learned anything. You just keep useless threads going beyond what is necessary. I assume it is an attempt to rack up betpoints so you can redeem them for a few measly bitcoins.

[danshan11]

I agree with KVB about this thread. It's becoming more useless over time. While I respect some of the stuff you've claimed to have done danshan11, I do wish you would take the volume of your discussion to another thread like KVB suggests. You have claimed to be "annoying to lots of members as I am here as well". I honestly don't understand why anyone would be proud of this. I remember when you joined this thread you said it was because you wanted to learn. As far as I can see you haven't learned anything. You just keep useless threads going beyond what is necessary. I assume it is an attempt to rack up betpoints so you can redeem them for a few measly bitcoins.

tell you what, you write a post on something important that matters and I will gladly give my opinion on it. This is not my discussion and who cares if I or anyone comment on it. if you want a forum you can control you and KVB should sell your "chicken Wing sauce formula method fund" and use that money to start a forum so you can control the conversations a bit more. Rack up betpoints for a few measly bitcoins is that meant as some sort of weak pussy ass attack on me? I have not spent 1 single betpoint since I got here nor do I even really know what they are for, I usually give them as tips. BUy bitcoin with them and that is why I post, LMAO!. If you need friends just ask I am always looking for new friends, no need for this useless attempt to be buddies with KVB