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guy lucky or the best capper ever
L W P 69 112 0
NBA and a very few NCAABB from one guy I am taking markets on? about a month or so worth of games
line value is about -1% he bets right before tipoff so no line value really
is this guy the best capper ever or just on a hell of a heater?
danshan11 why dont u just flip your damn coins!
what do you mean?Originally Posted by MikeTizzy
Well, based on my Monte Carlo simulations there is about a 0.1% of chance the result came just from luck.
It seems almost impossible at first glance, but is one in a thousand. Considering there are thousands of cappers out there, we are gonna see one or another with these results. So it's not THAT rare.
Probably the guy is good, but got a hot streak too. I suggest waiting some more picks to get a conclusive judgment.
I was going to take another week or so and see what happens but man it seems insane, how can you do that good on ATS bets, I forgot to mention the avg line is 51% with juice
Pure luck most likely obviously...see how he fares after a few thousand bets.
I mean it just seems really fricken good, it scared me a bit and he is not even close to beating the line I mean most of the time he bets at 558 for a 600 tipoff
Put 10 000 monkeys in a room, let them place random bets on every game and 10 of them will have the same result or better after 180 games. It's survivorship bias.
danshan you are a clueless beat the line advocate.
If you are a MM at Fairlay, do they allow you to reject/limit action from certain accounts?
true I 100% agree, I am clueless and that might be the smartest thing to be in this game!
no at fairlay you have no idea who is matching orders. it is great because it is 100% anonymous
I keep thinking the same thing but daily his numbers seem darn consistent which in a sense to me is odd in itself. No one is usually very consistent on a daily basis. Anyway I am going to keep it running and see where it goes.
the thing is for me it has to be super luck because its just way too high a winning %62 come on I never even heard of anyone even close to something like that the best I ever even heard of is like 53 54%
nerfman Danshan what are your lifetime figures at this SBR book? im curious what your numbers look like. IF u cant grow ur betpoints by using a +EV formula thats ever adapting to the true odds thats ever changing in this world, then u cant ever grow a real single dollar and will always be -EV.
Last edited by MikeTizzy; 12-03-18 at 02:08 PM.
I dont place bets at SBR Book for betpoints, my bet points come from 1 tourney I got in when I first got here and daily trivia or whatever little things get you a few points.
I think its a valid argument to show some real bets but even if I did it takes way way too long to have enough to even matter. you show me 1 member here with a record that has over 5000 documented bets and is +. yes there may be 1 or 2 but in reality that is just SB and nothing else.
it is crazy hard to prove success to me and yourself in this game.
you need 1000s of wagers and that still could be SB
you are clueless man, u need to study shit that actually matters. Like market science, game theory, and understanding 1 sport and all the ins and outs/ fundamentals / dynamics of that particular sport. Then you gotta understand the meaning of perceived value, false value and true values. You also need to under psychology. Then u can create formulas and equations based on shit that actually matters. Then u gotta test and test them and adapt to dynamic shifts and changes. How about you try to become friends with a oddsmaker or dealer of a particular market. Maybe u will learn something +EV for once.
thank you I will take your advice on a few of those things, I think it is so funny that you think it is important to even know what sport is even being played.
Market science, game theory, sure both good things. I am a semi successful comparable analyzer, this is what I did for a living until about 6 months ago when i retired. I have determined market value of not readily available valuable items. I think comparative approach is very effective in sports as well as anything else and that is exactly how I create my lines and beat the line. I am 46 years old and did work on comparative analysis for nearly 20 years it is how I survived but yeah I will work on a clue brother!
Its either fake or you made it up
Im going with the latter
So you are 46 yo and retired?
Why are you doing this then?
If its not for the money then what?
I wish that was true but unfortunately it is not!
why am I doing what?
I have about two or three streaks every year where I win 120 or more out of 200 (counting only -110 or -105 lines). Make a million bets and it will happen hundreds of times (along with a near equal amount of streaks to the losing side).
understood and the experts I have asked all say it is just the luck bucket or SB. I just think its fricken nuts got me again too
he only had 5 today but it is not looking good for me so far!
OVER 156 Michigan State HoustonRockets -0 1H Rutgers ML Los Angeles Clippers +2 Washington Wizards -2
he is gonna probably beat me in 4 out of 5 and the 5th is a +600 dog that he lost LOL
he got me 4 out of 5, I think I am going to post them daily until the tide changes, there is no way he can keep winning like this!
If this is true, how do you know his record?
Yeah, was just about to say exactly the same thing. I've had three streaks like that in the last six months - great fun while it's happening of course, but the monster downer between streaks 2 and 3 wasn't so amusing (using exactly the same method).
I am doing this from BT not fairlay. I am not doing markets on fairlay anymore, there are no bettors there and the lines are really tight
I would put up markets on fairlay and only get a few bets, it was not worth it , to make any really money you got to get way more activity.
Same reasons overcome variance and get volume high enough you make some money!
the only people who use fairlay are programs trying to find arbs and looking for stale lines from manually added orders. There is very few real bettors, so no juice givers to take from!
What is BT? Hope you are doing well. It is a shame about Fairlay. They really need to clean up their interface.
fairlay is still awesome to bet personally but sucks for market making, BT is betting talk
I asked Joseph B about that record and he said the following
"If he has no skill then no chance (1 in about 10 trillion). If he has the skill of a 53% handicapper then it's about 1 in 100 million. If he's one of the world's best with a 57% base rate then it's still about 1 in 1,000. So basically no, not a hope. If he does, he's cheating."
I did not even know there was such thing as a long term 57% winner, WOW wouldnt that be something fricken amazing
That's way off, so looked at his tweets - those probabilities he's referring to are the chances of hitting 62% after 1000 plays, not after 181.
Last edited by HeeeHAWWWW; 12-04-18 at 02:27 PM.
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