[a4u2fear]

I'm trying to predict cup winners using regression formulas from regular season statistics

Here is a summary of the results

From 2012-13 to 2017-18 I could have given you six teams each year and one of them would've won the cup. Also, out of those six seasons and those six teams, five times the cup loser would've been included in that list. Pretty damn good, I think.

Keep in mind 12-13 was a shortened lockout season, the cup winner in 13-14 was the 6th best team in the west, and the 14-15 winner was the 4th best team in the west. The other winners for the other seasons were either 1st,2nd,or 3rd in their conference. Usually the best teams with the most points in the regular season are one of the winners, but tell that to the Washington Capitals prior to last season.

The 11-12 season posed some problems as the 6th best team in the East, Devils, lost to the 8th best team in the West, the Kings. Had the Devils won this cup, the system would've continued with 6 teams as listed as one of the winners

The 10-11 season also posed some problems as the Bruins beat the Canucks. The system did not have the Bruins listed in the top 6; but again, the Canucks had they won, would've matched the 6 team system.

The 07-08 and 09-10 seasons included the cup winner from the 6 team list

The 08-09 winner was not in the top 6, but #8

So, hmmm, some thinking. The system was great for the past 6 seasons, the NHL is a bit different now.

Basically as a summary:
I analyzed 11 seasons, with an initial 6 team list to win and/or lose the cup each year before playoffs start
8 times, the winner would've been in the 6 team list
9 times, the loser would've been in the 6 team list

so now the question is, is this performance good enough?

trying to "improve" it further and include the 3 seasons where the cup winner was not in our 6 team list----
I found a category to include the winner from those 3 seasons:

If i include that additional or new category for each of the 11 seasons:
I could have given you a list of 9 teams each seasons and guaranteed you the cup winner was in it every time
Or i could have give you a list of 8 teams and guaranteed the winner was in it 10/11 times

9 teams sounds like a lot out of 16 who make it

I only had cup odds in 2017 after the reg season and before playoffs started, the 6 teams I would've given you
Wash +450
SJ +1500
ANH +750
TB +2000
STL +750
PIT +750

Had you bet each of these teams, (PIT won over Nashville, this is the one year the cup loser wasn't in the list) you would've won 2.5 units. Of course if washington won, you would've lost a half unit.

does anyone have any thoughts?

if someone has pre-playoff cup odds I can provide those results for other seasons

[castlegreyskull]

interesting read. based on your model who are the 6 teams in contention this year?

[a4u2fear]

interesting read. based on your model who are the 6 teams in contention this year?

Take with a grain of salt since I haven't explored this, also, not every team has played the same amount of games. But I guess I could track this now for this year....

Top 6
TB
Toronto
Nashville
Minnesota
Colorado
Calgary

Interesting that Buffalo is not on the list. Being a fan of theirs, I'd say it's likely because of their current winning streak (mostly down in games with late comebacks, followed by OT/SO/1 goal wins.)

[a4u2fear]

interesting read. based on your model who are the 6 teams in contention this year?

And I couldn’t tell from your reply, but the six teams are chosen at the end of the season just before playoffs

[Barrakuda]

Predictive this is not.

[gojetsgomoxies]

here's a simpler question and, i think, way to look at it.

can you give us the regular season power rating of the last X stanley cup winners?............... then we could look at outlier teams that came from a lower ranking to win cup and see if they differ from other teams (O vs. D, power play, short handed... and it could be that something that is really important in regular season is less important in playoffs i.e. far fewer penalties = power play doesn't matter as much)

also, you could just look at a bunch of detailed ratings for all stanley cup winners O/D/power play/short handed (power play would be both # of opp's and efficiency)

[a4u2fear]

SJ -110
Cal -1.5 -115
Pit -160
Bos -140
TB -1.5 -185

system likes TB and Cal SU but also they have a great chance to cover -1.5 so to save juice I’m taking it

these are the five teams with a chance to win the cup
out of 13 seasons analyzed, at least one of these teams will make the cup 100%. There is a 11/13 chance the cup winner is one of these five

[BigdaddyQH]

So you lose four out of 5. On top of that, you are constantly playing the favorites. It's a loser no matter who makes it.

[cankid]

Whoever wins SJ/Vegas will be dangerous going forward

[JacketFan81]

So you lose four out of 5. On top of that, you are constantly playing the favorites. It's a loser no matter who makes it.

The irony of this guy talking about being heavy on favorites 🤣🤣🤣

[a4u2fear]

So you lose four out of 5. On top of that, you are constantly playing the favorites. It's a loser no matter who makes it.

Let me know when you find a better way to narrow down a field of 16 in a league that has the most parity

[semibluff]

Off-topic but the SBR odds for NHL futures is a bit of a disaster. The Classic odds haven't been updated since the 2018 final and the 'NEW' odds have only been updated for some of the books. It's a mess.