1. #1
    stomp24
    stomp24's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-23-18
    Posts: 48
    Betpoints: 123

    Betting NBA Quarters - Any Web Developers out there?

    Hey everyone, I've been gathering data on how teams perform against the spread by quarter for all NBA teams. I applied some algorithms to help determine when is appropriate to take these bets, and applied it to the 2017-2018 season in order to see what the success rate wouldve been, and it hit over 70%!
    I know the number sounds ridiculous, but if you think about it ... lets say spread is 10, typically the spread for each quarter is -2.5; but some teams have great benches, so they outperform the 2nd quarter. Some teams have a great coach, so they outperform the 3rd quarter.
    I'm also doing similar stuff with NFL teasers.

    Has anyone seen this kind of information out there? Not just points for / points against ... but actual ATS?
    If not ... any web developers out there that would be interested in joining up to produce this for the public?

    I'm new on this forum, so I unfortunately i cant direct message yet. I'll be working on getting points, so that i can reply to anyone who messages me.

  2. #2
    stomp24
    stomp24's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-23-18
    Posts: 48
    Betpoints: 123

    An example Bet

    Just as a disclaimer, this is not an official pick, as the NBA season is still fresh, so theres not the amount of data i would like to see before submitting a pick.
    However, just looking at the next game on the board. Memphis vs Clippers.

    This year in the 3rd quarter memphis has gone 2 games over, and 10 games under.
    Clippers in the 3rd quarter have gone 3 games over, 10 games under.

    when memphis is on the road in the 3rd quarter, 0 over - 6 under
    when clippers at home in the 3rd quarter, 2 over - 5 under

    when memphis is the dog, 1 over, 7 under
    when clippers are the favorite, 2 over, 2 unders

    when memphis is playing with >0 rest, 0 over, 5 unders
    whem clippers are playing >0 rest, 2 over, 2 unders

    when all factors combined memphis 0 overs, 5 unders
    clippers 2, 2

    Obviously not TONS of data points just yet ... however, i would say the under in the 3Q seems like a good bet today.
    This is a PREGAME bet, not live wagering.

  3. #3
    stomp24
    stomp24's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-23-18
    Posts: 48
    Betpoints: 123

    Other Picks:
    1Q: under
    2Q: over
    3Q: Under
    4Q: Under

  4. #4
    stomp24
    stomp24's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-23-18
    Posts: 48
    Betpoints: 123

    3-1!!!
    Would've been 4-0 if mark gasol doesnt foul on a 3 point attempt on the last second of the game!
    Last edited by stomp24; 11-23-18 at 04:58 PM.

  5. #5
    stomp24
    stomp24's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-23-18
    Posts: 48
    Betpoints: 123

    More Quarter picks:Phil 76ers 2nd quarterToronto washington Over 2nd QIndiana 2QSan Antonio / Indiana Over 2QMilwaukee 1QMilwaukee 2QPhx / Mil Over 2QOrlando 1QOrlando 3Q

  6. #6
    nash13
    nash13's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-21-14
    Posts: 1,054
    Betpoints: 6163

    if you can determine algorithms by giving teams a specific number or characteristic point of emphasis, it easy to create a matrix which determines your bet. just need a basic concept of team specific factors and how you match them.

  7. #7
    stomp24
    stomp24's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-23-18
    Posts: 48
    Betpoints: 123

    ya i already have it all calculating in excel.
    I'd like to put it on a website which then updates daily with previous scores. then pulls todays matchups, analyzes all of them automatically and just posts the picks of the day ... rather than the manual process.

  8. #8
    stomp24
    stomp24's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-23-18
    Posts: 48
    Betpoints: 123

    Record so far 8-5

    Sunday Picks:

    Orlando 1Q
    NY Mem 1Q Under
    NY Mem 3Q Under
    Mem 2Q
    Por 1Q
    Por LAC Over 1Q

  9. #9
    Waterstpub87
    Life-Style Arbitrage
    Waterstpub87's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 3,309
    Betpoints: 708

    You might want to look instead at the minutes per quarter that certain players play, then constructing the lines that way. Even something simple like weighted +- during a certain quarter might be easier, and might actually produce good results. The problem with many of systems like you describe is that they fail to account for injures. I'm always suspicious of betting anything that is based on "0-6 ATS" and other such things.
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 07/11/2019


  10. #10
    stomp24
    stomp24's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-23-18
    Posts: 48
    Betpoints: 123

    true ... but then you'd be projecting who is going to play that quarter to begin with. So its still inaccurate.
    However, typically speaking ... every team has the same rotation per game in terms of minutes and who will play.
    Also the reason i am not selecting a pick from all the games, is because of a few things: in the case of Utah and Boston for example they have injuries and thus that data will change.
    Lastly, what i want to do is if a team is 0-6 in the 2nd quarter for example (first of all i would wait till at least 10 games have been played, but lets say this is a subset of being at home), if the Other team isnt above .500 i wouldnt even consider it. If both teams suck, then its just a crapshoot at that point.
    Obviously were still early into the season, I'd say once all teams have played roughly 10 games on the road and 10 at home, i think some of the trends will become a lot more apparent.

  11. #11
    Waterstpub87
    Life-Style Arbitrage
    Waterstpub87's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 3,309
    Betpoints: 708

    Quote Originally Posted by stomp24 View Post
    true ... but then you'd be projecting who is going to play that quarter to begin with. So its still inaccurate.
    However, typically speaking ... every team has the same rotation per game in terms of minutes and who will play.
    Also the reason i am not selecting a pick from all the games, is because of a few things: in the case of Utah and Boston for example they have injuries and thus that data will change.
    Lastly, what i want to do is if a team is 0-6 in the 2nd quarter for example (first of all i would wait till at least 10 games have been played, but lets say this is a subset of being at home), if the Other team isnt above .500 i wouldnt even consider it. If both teams suck, then its just a crapshoot at that point.
    Obviously were still early into the season, I'd say once all teams have played roughly 10 games on the road and 10 at home, i think some of the trends will become a lot more apparent.
    If Steph Curry normally plays 10 minutes in the second quarter, but is injured, so Quinn cook plays 10 minutes instead, you be more accurate estimating it based on that, instead of just Golden State is 6-0 in the 2nd quarter.

    Ignoring games with injuries for you is probably the best move
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 07/11/2019


  12. #12
    stomp24
    stomp24's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-23-18
    Posts: 48
    Betpoints: 123

    ya the problem with that method is team chemistry. A site called prediction machine used to do something similar for baseball, where each players value against the pitcher created a simulation and would predict the score. baseball is a 1 on 1 sport. In basketball, cook may be a high scorer when leading the 2nd unit, but when playing with KD his value may be nothing (or even negative). And thus it is important to at least notate it, and then store that information as a different subset of data for future use.

  13. #13
    stomp24
    stomp24's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-23-18
    Posts: 48
    Betpoints: 123

    Mondays picks 5-0-1, record now 16-8-1 (67%)
    Listed here: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...rs-ats-ou.html

  14. #14
    stomp24
    stomp24's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-23-18
    Posts: 48
    Betpoints: 123

    Fridays Picks:
    2 point plays
    OKC 3Q
    Phi Wash Over 1st Quarter
    Dal Lakers Over 2nd Quarter

    1 point plays
    OKC Atl over 2nd quarter
    Phila 1st Quarter
    Spurs 1H
    Hou/SAS under 4th Quarter (which i hate this play, but the numbers are the numbers)

    Another bet. New Orleans is a pretty strong 2H team, but that is also because they are often being outplayed in the 1H.
    So i would suggest .5 units on the 3rd Q and .5 units on the 4th Quarter.
    if they are not winning by a lot at half (lets say over 7-8 points), then i would take the 2nd half for the other 1 unit. (it should be less than -1)

    Good luck


  15. #15
    stomp24
    stomp24's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-23-18
    Posts: 48
    Betpoints: 123

    3 plays today:
    New Orleans / Char Over 1H
    Memphis / Phila Over 2Q
    Memphis / Phila Under 3Q

  16. #16
    stomp24
    stomp24's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-23-18
    Posts: 48
    Betpoints: 123

    as an FYI ... if the 3Q is any lower than 53, skip it. I'm seeing some high variance on this line depending on the book.

Top