1. #1
    danshan11
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    if you had to make a play

    if a person had to place a bet and did not know anything and just had to pick something what is the best bet? Home big favorite, Road small dog, what is the best play?

  2. #2
    Waterstpub87
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    Under

  3. #3
    Alfa1234
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    Depends on what his purpose is, does he want the biggest chance to make money or does he simply wants the biggest probability to avoid losing money?

    Option 1 is: find any line with value on a big ML odd for a dog. Option 2 is find the best line for a huge favourite as that will have the smallest probability of a losing bet.
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  4. #4
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alfa1234 View Post
    Depends on what his purpose is, does he want the biggest chance to make money or does he simply wants the biggest probability to avoid losing money?

    Option 1 is: find any line with value on a big ML odd for a dog. Option 2 is find the best line for a huge favourite as that will have the smallest probability of a losing bet.
    find line with value, we said the guy knows nothing, I am talking about someone who has never bet, what is the best option to get the best results. so you think a big favorite is the lowest possibility of losing, is the best play, right?

  5. #5
    nash13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alfa1234 View Post
    Depends on what his purpose is, does he want the biggest chance to make money or does he simply wants the biggest probability to avoid losing money?

    Option 1 is: find any line with value on a big ML odd for a dog. Option 2 is find the best line for a huge favourite as that will have the smallest probability of a losing bet.
    i do the second option in college a lot.

  6. #6
    danshan11
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    I tried doing some research and literally cant find an edge on anything even a "noise" edge

  7. #7
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by nash13 View Post
    i do the second option in college a lot.
    does it work out or do you track it specifically?

  8. #8
    Alfa1234
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    does it work out or do you track it specifically?
    5dimes has a lot of college NCAA basketball ML over +10000. A lot of smaller bookies have the favourite at 1.01 (-10 000). There is value in the favourite ML at 1.01 every time as 5dimes is fairly sharp.
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  9. #9
    Alfa1234
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    find line with value, we said the guy knows nothing, I am talking about someone who has never bet, what is the best option to get the best results. so you think a big favorite is the lowest possibility of losing, is the best play, right?
    Obviously if he has no clue he shouldn't bet at all because he will always be paying juice. If he HAS to make a bet though, I'd be conservative and place a bet with the lowest odd possible (1.01) and hope for the best to avoid losing the money.
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  10. #10
    danshan11
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    for me my advice would be take a decent priced home favorite, good chance they at least dont get blown out most of the time

  11. #11
    TommieGunshot
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alfa1234 View Post
    Option 1 is: find any line with value on a big ML odd for a dog. Option 2 is find the best line for a huge favourite as that will have the smallest probability of a losing bet.
    Finding ďthe best lineĒ or ďany line with valueĒ means actually knowing something.

    My first thought is Donít Pass in craps (with full odds if you want). Second thought is just lowest denomination you can find. Iíve played slot machines for one-penny per spin. For sports, to get the lowest house edge, bet whatever has the highest push rate. That might mean you have to research something, so Iíll simplify it to first inning baseball. But Iím sure someone can meet the challenge of finding bets with higher push rates than that

  12. #12
    nash13
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    does it work out or do you track it specifically?
    i take undervalued favs in the range of -500 to -250. i do list them as doubles or trebles at most.

  13. #13
    snapperman2
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    It depends on the sport. In NBA, small road favorites (-5.5 to -10.5) seem to win at 53.5% ATS.

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