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I always wondered how that works betting last second, I mean it makes it impossible to beat the line, so basically what the syndicate is doing is they are saying they have a more accurate line than the world combined (which may be true) but man that has to be so razor thin, they must bet millions to get any edge with that and even the slightest variance could screw you big time! Seems very difficult or maybe I dont really understand how it worksOriginally Posted by HeeeHAWWWW
Wasn't it you that said you bet small markets so you avoided openers?
What's the epitome of an efficient market stuff about now?
Lame deflection to avoid backing up this I think " the only people who bet openers are people not confident in their own lines".
My comment wasn't directed at you or anyone specifically. I'm just frustrated with this and other topics in this thread. I've followed The Think Tank foy many years, learned a few things, and generated several ideas that I pursued.
Unfortunately those threads seem to have disappeared. This has become a place where people just express their opinions, over and over. Apparently they have a lot of time to waste, and just like to hear themselves talk. Unfortunately reading all of these pointless posts is wasting my time also.
I have no right to tell other people what to do. If you are enjoying yourselves, please continue. I'll just move along somewhere else.
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there are a few keys that show how "sharp" bettors play
timing
limits
spreading money
beating the line
hedging to minimize risk
these are what I would consider the top topics for the TT. I think people need to open their mind and expand how they think and play. I use to think so many things before that now I know was just dumb.
look at this, I got a list of plays from a Twitter friend, he says he works for a book and these are the 5 or so most popular plays for today from the longest term losers who bet decent limits. He did not give me the specific criteria but he swears he fades them every week.
now I dont post these to tell people to tail them or fade them. I am using them as an example and I added comments of what I would of took when I use to play off gut, trends, news, popularity, my thoughts(good weather Team X plays good in good weather). I am just trying to show how so many things we think matter dont for two reasons
1 they are anomalies, they look like something but are just noise( system type stuff) (team is 10-1 on Sunday afternoon type stuff)
2 Team A is so much better than B, might be better but the margins are really small in major markets. Example I think the Patriots will beat the Bills by 40 at home but in reality the line will probably be 15ish or something, to me that seems like value but if you look at the Pats over 10 years as -14 or bigger faves guess what 51% ATS.
this list is the plays so opposite of what these (squares played)
Falcons -1 LIke it Falcons -3 LIke it Over 47.5 Falcons Dont Chicago Bears -11 LIke it Detroit Lions +4 Dont Green Bay Packers +5 Dont Broncos +1 LIke it Browns +7.5 LIke it Los Angeles Chargers +1 LIke it Rams U28.5 Dont like Los Angeles Rams LIke it Jets O20.5 Dont like Pittsburgh Steelers +1 Dont like 1H Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 Dont like Bucs O55.5 LIke it Cowboys -7 LIke it Ravens U46 LIke it
and I have seen it a few weeks it taught me a lot , most people bet two ways
A when they think their team will win
B when a team is a major market team at home
C against a really bad team at any line
and the reality of all this is they will win about half and magic they lose the margin.
we are here and we hope to do better than that, so that is why we need to discuss these things
I AM NOT SURE I WAS CLEAR THESE ARE OPPOSITE OF WHAT THE biggest losers took so for example my list has Cowboys -7 that means they took the Titans +7 and my twitter friend would take the Cowboys going against them. I know I made it complicated but yeah, this stuff taught me a ton and I see the trends from people in these. I can probably justify every pick they took without a model and can come up with something real close as they do on each one of these picks
Last edited by danshan11; 11-04-18 at 01:39 PM.
so when I wrote dont like, that would mean I agree with the squares on that game. I call them squares just as a word not because I know anything about the players, but my friend says they are the squarest big regular bettors he has.
Biggest losers for the book are players with no edge at all, playing big and winning 50%. You can't fade those plays as you'll just end up winning 50% as well IMHO. I serously doubt any book has long term 55%+ play losers.
Yep, the big soccer syndicates are betting endless millions each year, some of them many 100s of millions, at 1%-2% EV.
Remember this is asian market soccer, so at the last minute you have fantastically low juice (can sometimes be a net -101 on both sides).
Last edited by HeeeHAWWWW; 11-04-18 at 05:00 PM.
the moral is not to fade or tail them, the moral is this shows at least me that the "system" "hot team" whatever plays are not smart. it all comes down to math not ideas or systems. that is the point I was trying to make!
FWIW , i personally changed when i bet my nba games. Now am basically waiting anywhere between 630 pm et and 7 pm et.
A very large percentage of my bets , like baseball are on dogs, no data to back this next statement up but if am going to bet a favorite ill do it early as possible and hope their isn't a game time scratch ,one of the reasons for not betting overnights or during the day, and if am going to bet a dog a wait. The public bets favorites and if am a dog better i want to wait , sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't . If the line moved out of my range ,so be it ,i dont care , we all know how many nba games there are in a season. So favorites early, dogs late.
good luck to everyone this nba season.
I think that is a good strategy for sure!
liking that knicks game tonight ,if i can find a 2 its a go on the knicks...hardaway and knox should play
almost 10, I am not there yet! one or 2 more days needed
Sharp players beat the closing line most of the time. Period.
I agree with that statement, I think its just hard to model enough games to beat the line enough times to overcome variance and to bet enough for it to be worth it. I am really struggling with how hard it actual is, not to even mention the shell game you need to play with books, bookies and shops to bet if you can do the variance count needed and beating the line consistently, really really tough
For the amounts the biggest groups are going are going to be betting, like maybe $100,000 on one outcome, that might be true drawback to betting close to start time. For the bottom feeders, it's actually the opposite -- betting late gives the best probability of beating the closing line. For an example, last night there was +9 and -8 on the Warriors-Grizzles 1h. It's very likely one of those is going to better than the closing line. We also know which one it is more like to be: whichever one is better than market price at the time of the bet.
Earlier the better. Other sharps' action will move the line against you otherwise
great example, thank you
but that is more chasing and when you chase you bet any moment at any time, I mean betting the Steelers this weekend, when do these guys bet
syndicate
razor sharp
Nerf
Square
I am asking this for one reason really.
A guy from a book told me that they get hit hardest by the after first limit move people always the most and second is the openers people hit them but not as hard because of limits of openers and dead last is the last second bettors, the one hr to post bettors get crushed according to him. He says they track everything but really a last second bettor rarely rarely gets on their radar unless he is betting macho heavy and still then they are very very patient to reviewing him. compared to a first pitch last game of the night before bettor.
he says "if you are betting against the closer giving us the juice we will take our chances against that guy, never limited one yet, unless was some other circumstance, shell or straw guy"
It depends. If you're fading the public then right before gametime can be your best bet. For example they had the Nuggets -2.5 early vs Boston last night but it closed at Denver -1. For the most part early is better, but its hard to factor in injuries (and sometimes weather) for Sat/Sunday when you bet on Monday morning.
wouldnt you agree if it closed at -1, -1 was the fair number? a 50-50 ATS number is -1, agree?
I ONLY place a bet after I whack the weasel! You need to be thinking clearly and not have that poison fog up your mind.
smart, clear headed and a constant bettor
Why do you ask questions that you already think you know the answer to?
You are either a master troll or a mentally ill person with split personalities.
In one post you are a humble person looking to learn then in another you are a sportsbetting scholar with all the answers.
What is the point of these threads when you never change your mind?
I would also like to know who your contact is that keeps feeding you classified information.
Fwie i think you should quit while your ahead this isnt for you or most people in this thread
I ask questions to get other peoples opinions and compare to what I think or argue to try and get clarity for me and them
probably mentally ill and not sure why you consider me a troll and even if I am a total troll I open up good conversations as you can see by the response to my posts.
I am always trying to learn of course, are you not? I think I have a pretty good understanding of betting but of course do not know it all.
I have grown a ton and changed my mind many times on many things, I use to think I knew who was gonna win or cover, LOL what a joke that brain process was.
I think my contact(s) are many, as you can see I prod and poke a lot even to experts and industry people to try and expand my thinking
dont know what Fwie is but I think anyone should quit if they dont have a good working knowledge or think they are pro's when in fact they are rec bettors and need to enjoy and bet accordingly.
you offer zero opinions and are the ultimate troll with the 1 sentence posts just saying "NO that is stupid" how does that help you or anyone.
I firmly believe my posts have helped me and many others. I post a ton to get insight to anything I consider important. I also think its very important to debunk some of the antiquated methods and or beliefs that many of us have. What do you bring to the forum other than one liners and no explanation. If I am wrong tell me why and be specific and quit the one liners, what were you a one line comedian before your jump into the forum posting?
answer the question TSTY, when do pro's bet generally?
It's best to bet as soon as you can identify a margin or edge that is acceptable to bet with.
Limits are always an issue because many times it can be best to hit opening lines.
On the other hand, we've held off from openers, even though there was an acceptable margin, or edge, because we anticipated line movement and did not want to tip the market by hitting limits across the board.
The problem isn't finding "winners" (which are games with an acceptable edge), the problem is getting down early enough and with enough.
Sometimes we wait until closer to game time, and while this might push the closing line, it's still can be the best number available.
If getting down is a problem, sometimes the most bets get in as soon as limits are raised, and no later.
KVb when you say the best number available what do you mean?
if the best number available is the closing number, doesnt that mean you are paying the margin?
if you think the line should be -9 and the closing line is -7, which is more accurate to you, your projected line or the closing line?
You can bet the closing line and still have an edge on that game if your model is accurate. It's just over time, you will be beating the closing line if your model is accurate. Indivual games can have an inaccurate closing line but if you are not beating the closing line long term you won't be making money. Doesn't mean you can't have an edge for a few games and bet that line though.
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I agree slightly to that comment but I think , thinking you are smarter than the line on a regular basis, is not a winning strategy.
saying the Broncos should be -5 not -1 this is a good play and it closes -1, I would say you are in a bad position on that play
I agree with this it's not so much beating the line because let's face the information "they" have and the information you have isn't comparable you will never have a model better that consistently beats theirs unless your the .000001 percent. I can give 5 people the same exact information and all 5 could use it differently. All about trial and error. If your blindly just betting game with no real reason behind it you will never be close to making money it's more of just a hobby and the thrill of the "big score". Also the thing that gets most people is they always need action you shouldn't be betting 5 games a day 6 days a week and expect to be successful pick your spots, spot betting can be profitable imo.
I mean just that, the best number available. If a line opens at -10 and steadily moves to -6 by the close, and I am looking for the favorite, then the closer is the best number available.
Often, you'll see a line drop like that and then right at the close shift upward a 1/2 point. At that point, the closer wasn't the best number available. There are multiple reasons for that, including arbs and depending on the price for the number you can see why. Another reason is the anticipation of the movement, the anticipation of being oversold that allows some bigger groups to wait to pull the trigger. They can also get the most down at this point.
Yet another reason could be models with closer numbers and a bet simply isn't triggered until that "bottom" is reached, then buying comes in; those guys are literally defining the bottom.
So openers can show great value, but so can too much line movement, especially when the public is piling on. At one point, value can even shift the other way.
Could be. After all, if you tie the closer every time, we're not beating it. Right? On the other hand, if your opinion shows +EV with vig, then pull the fukkin trigger.
One of my tracked funds addresses this and is more of a spot play type fund that will often buy the closer. It's the only Fund not beating the closer but has only made a dozen plays (out of more than 300 total). It's also the only Fund that is negative units.
What do you mean by accurate?
I analyze the market too, handicapping many different styles, including known losing ones to see where those bettors are looking and if the originators opened at -9 knowing they were going to get action on the dog, knowing they would be dropping the line, then it would be accurate.
To me, an "accurate" line is a line that serves the purpose of the originators and bookmakers, but I prefer the term "sharp" line.
To many a sharp line would likely be a line that splits the money evenly and I wouldn't disagree as a line like that often forces the bettors to gamble, when they should pass.
But I know that's now how the game is played. A sharp line is one that succeeds in serving the purpose of that line in the particular spot in that particular day in that particular market.
Agreed, it's not the information, it's how you use it.
We all have the same information, determining what's relevant is one step, then figuring out the weighting of that info is another step.
That spot type betting the Fund I am referring too above.
Even with spot betting, one still needs to know where they stand relative to the market.
Sometimes, a "spot bet" can counter what one has as a +EV play. It becomes a more short term type look. This trading is very dangerous and requires the ability to rework your prediction using the information that makes the play a "spot play."
There are many different ways to handicap. What i s+EV for one method, may not be for another.
That's a problem with a place like the Forum and posting plays. I post all the plays in my Funds because, while it is a pool of +EV plays, that's according to my methods. It's best, and far less risky, to bet all the plays instead of trying pick the best ones out of the group.
If I could do that with ease and consistency, I'd just bet those. (It's like those guys that bet 2 and 3 times unit plays. If a play is worth twice or even three the risk of another play, then why bet the other plays? Truthfully, it's only with volume betting and rare circumstances that this reasoning fails. For the most part though, only those bigger bets are going to matter to the bottom line.)
Burt many posters, even good bettors, pick and choose some to post, and even though the play could come from a pool with +EV standpoint based on their handicapping, any single bet is obviously subject to fail.
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so your goal is not to beat the line by margin purely its more for you using the closing line as a guide or reference point and the line you create is actually sharper than the closing line.
cause to me if the closer is -7 and it I get it at -7 that to me is a loser, period. Why? because the past data shows betting the exact closing line is a negative deal overall, so if I do it an extended period of time, I eventually will lose the margin.
so betting -7 and it closes at -7 might be the best available but to me that is a bad bet because I lose the margin over time. I dont believe there is any way I am more accurate than the entire betting community on even 1 game and if I am its an accident and not something I can repeat consistently
I started this thread because of the guys comment on the he "loves" players who bet last minute. I think to me I read into that basically that those people are not beating the line and therefore losing so no worry on them BUT I have read here and I have no personal knowledge but apparently it is perfectly normal for syndicates to bet a closing line with no hesitation and they get rich doing it.
I also was a little shook by the losing data he said exists on betting with big line moves. he says if you bet with a big move, it usually ends up bad, they have no problem with people betting with a moving line. example line is +105 and all of sudden it drops to -110, he says lots of people jump on that and heavy and usually even push it down more and he says those people have no history of winning or obtaining an edge from that info alone. What do you think of this theory?
Good thread! Bottom line....learn to know yourself and your weaknesses/limitations. If you're jumping on a line because everyone else is and you get GB +5 when it was +6.5 four days before then you're not a serious gambler. More recreational and action player which is fine. If you take your woman to see some bs movie and buy popcorn & drinks then its prob more expensive (atleast per hour) then betting $50 on a game. Its all relative.
If you're a gambling addict (prob 60% of Sbr atleast) then admit it to yourself. Its not the kick that went wide or the dropped pass that cost you a car payment. Its the fact that you put $300 on a game that you knew nothing about and never studied. Might as well go play red or black roulette at a casino...less juice. I do pretty well with football, but I still have to fight the urges to play blackjack, horses, etc. I had a huge advantage during the poker boom and made some pretty good $, but that dried up long ago. If you really want to make $ then put in the time and the work to find an edge. Not everyone has that time or discipline.
Different women in my life have complained that I watch too much sports, so I'd stop watching/gambling for a while. Then months later, I'd then find a game at some point and would win that game 75% of the time it seemed. I'd put alot of research into it and it would hit. Then the addiction high would kick in and I'd bet 50% of what I just made on some bs because it was tipping off in 3 minutes.
Discipline is everything. I'm 52 and its still a daily battle because I get stupid when I'm up even more then I get stupid when I'm losing!
Definition of discipline (Entry 2 of 2)
transitive verb
1: to punish or penalize for the sake of enforcing obedience and perfecting moral character
2:to train or develop by instruction and exercise especially in self-control
3a: to bring (a group) under controldiscipline troops
b: to impose order uponserious writers discipline and refine their writing styles
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