you dont think I have an understanding of how a line is calculated?
books never balance cash, the only thing they do is spread it out to as many games as they possibly can to overcome variance, they beat you by beating the line AKA juice, margin vig whatever you want to call it
it is very difficult and very few people bet for a profit if any
your vulnerable part still says nothing, I have no clue what you mean by that. I know how to win I need to pay +100 or better on coin flips and you can move that up and down the chain of implied probability the same.
you are absolute correct about it being about the numbers and the psych of the game just like the market. you cant pick winners you just have to beat the line in both games.
I am very curious and I dont really know if its possible to succeed at sports betting, I have not seen anyone doing it.
People say its about the limits, they limit me cause I am so good, that is not true just use exchanges, they gladly take all action and they dont even know who the buyer of the game is.
people say its about money management and sure it is if you have an edge, the problem is 99.9% of people think an edge is they think they know more times than they are wrong who will cover ATS, that is pure fallacy. you can money manage like a champ flat bet, fixed profit bet, martingale, full half quarter kelly but if you dont have an edge you will lose your money period, you are just changing the length of time until you lose it if you dont have a true edge.
people say sure overall lines are efficient but there are a few games and they can find them where they are not efficient. If you can find an inefficient line you dont think there are tons of other people that can do the same, that would be a really dumb way to think. to think we are smarter than the whole market. The market is overall superman dynamite efficient because every line is very efficient. I am only speaking of US major markets not small markets, I dont have any working knowledge of small markets.
Line movements show you where to make a play, sure they do unfortunately that is way too late, late moves are too sharpen up the market if you bet with them you are paying the juice AKA efficient closing lines.
Opening lines are useless and have zero use, they are only there to get the ball rolling ( really smart move for someone would be to use the early openers as their model( they are probably 90% better than most peoples actual models). they are not indicative of anything. Closing lines are super efficient and take into account the weather movements changes in roster last minute injuries and more.