1. #106
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Charlies_Hustle2 View Post
    I meant exactly that, find out how that line is calculated.

    Would you walk in to a boxing ring and fight someone you know nothing about?? Well, that's what you are doing if you don't understand why that opening line is that opening line. And if you don't understand why that opening line moved, than you don't understand how taht fighter has trained. So now you are facing a fighter you a) don't know and b) have no idea how he became- or if he is any good.

    Of course they are trying to balance cash, they better be other wise they won't last long.

    It's not that difficult.

    Vulnerable; if the line is worth playing, if you put yourself in a position where your chances of winning is more than 52%.

    My only suggestion to someone as curious as you is to walk away from sportsbetting, look in to FX trading. Learn how to read charts, understand what patterns are, breakouts, tunnels, shooting stars, bands, EMA's, RSI's and all of that good stuff. Then come back.

    If you truely are as curious as you market yourself, you'll succeed.
    you dont think I have an understanding of how a line is calculated?

    books never balance cash, the only thing they do is spread it out to as many games as they possibly can to overcome variance, they beat you by beating the line AKA juice, margin vig whatever you want to call it


    it is very difficult and very few people bet for a profit if any

    your vulnerable part still says nothing, I have no clue what you mean by that. I know how to win I need to pay +100 or better on coin flips and you can move that up and down the chain of implied probability the same.

    you are absolute correct about it being about the numbers and the psych of the game just like the market. you cant pick winners you just have to beat the line in both games.

    I am very curious and I dont really know if its possible to succeed at sports betting, I have not seen anyone doing it.

    People say its about the limits, they limit me cause I am so good, that is not true just use exchanges, they gladly take all action and they dont even know who the buyer of the game is.

    people say its about money management and sure it is if you have an edge, the problem is 99.9% of people think an edge is they think they know more times than they are wrong who will cover ATS, that is pure fallacy. you can money manage like a champ flat bet, fixed profit bet, martingale, full half quarter kelly but if you dont have an edge you will lose your money period, you are just changing the length of time until you lose it if you dont have a true edge.

    people say sure overall lines are efficient but there are a few games and they can find them where they are not efficient. If you can find an inefficient line you dont think there are tons of other people that can do the same, that would be a really dumb way to think. to think we are smarter than the whole market. The market is overall superman dynamite efficient because every line is very efficient. I am only speaking of US major markets not small markets, I dont have any working knowledge of small markets.

    Line movements show you where to make a play, sure they do unfortunately that is way too late, late moves are too sharpen up the market if you bet with them you are paying the juice AKA efficient closing lines.

    Opening lines are useless and have zero use, they are only there to get the ball rolling ( really smart move for someone would be to use the early openers as their model( they are probably 90% better than most peoples actual models). they are not indicative of anything. Closing lines are super efficient and take into account the weather movements changes in roster last minute injuries and more.

  2. #107
    danshan11
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    I mean to me its crazy. my best friend he looks at the following type stuff and makes choices with it and I laugh my ass off
    1 how they played against each other before
    2 how they done last few games
    3 how a star is doing recently
    4 common opponents
    and more wacky funny stuff. I tell him I think 99.99% of that stuff is in the line and calculated better than he can and also some of that stuff does not even really matter even though you think it does.
    I always show him common proof in series games
    Game 1 team A -5
    game 1 team A loses by 30 points
    next day is game 2
    Game 2 team A -4.5
    game 2 team A wins by 6
    next day game 3
    Game 3 team A -5
    nothing changed and he thinks the last game means so much or how they performed yesterday means so much, its so funny how people think

  3. #108
    danshan11
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    Apr 28, 2018 recap Sat 2017 Warriors Pelicans home 123-101 3&6 -9.0 224.5 22 13.0 -0.5 6.2 -6.8 W W U 0
    May 01, 2018 recap Tue 2017 Warriors Pelicans home 121-116 2&2 -10.5 228.5 5 -5.5 8.5 1.5 7.0 W L O 0
    May 04, 2018 recap Fri 2017 Warriors Pelicans away 100-119 2&2 -5.0 233.0 -19 -24.0 -14.0 -19.0 5.0 L L U 0
    May 06, 2018 recap Sun 2017 Warriors Pelicans away 118-92 1&1 -6.0 231.5 26 20.0 -21.5 -0.8 -20.8 W W U 0
    May 08, 2018 recap Tue 2017 Warriors Pelicans home 113-104 1&1 -11.5 227.5 9 -2.5 -10.5 -6.5 -4.0 W L U 0
    May 14, 2018 recap Mon 2017 Warriors Rockets away 119-106 5&5 1.0 225.0 13 14.0 0.0 7.0 -7.0 W W P 0
    May 16, 2018 recap Wed 2017 Warriors Rockets away 105-127 1&1 2.0 225.5 -22 -20.0 6.5 -6.8 13.2 L L O 0
    May 20, 2018 recap Sun 2017 Warriors Rockets home 126-85 3&3 -8.0 226.0 41 33.0 -15.0 9.0 -24.0 W W U 0
    May 22, 2018 recap Tue 2017 Warriors Rockets home 92-95 1&1 -8.0 224.5 -3 -11.0 -37.5 -24.2 -13.2 L L U 0
    May 24, 2018 recap Thu 2017 Warriors Rockets away 94-98 1&1 0.0 219.5 -4 -4.0 -27.5 -15.8 -11.8 L L U 0
    May 26, 2018 recap Sat 2017 Warriors Rockets home 115-86 1&1 -12.5 213.0 29 16.5 -12.0 2.2 -14.2 W W U 0
    May 28, 2018 recap Mon 2017 Warriors Rockets away 101-92 1&1 -6.0 208.0 9 3.0 -15.0 -6.0 -9.0 W W U 0
    May 31, 2018 recap Thu 2017 Warriors Cavaliers home 124-114 2&3 -12.0 216.5 10 -2.0 21.5 9.8 11.8 W L O 1
    Jun 03, 2018 recap Sun 2017 Warriors Cavaliers home 122-103 2&2 -12.0 216.5 19 7.0 8.5 7.8 0.8 W W O 0
    Jun 06, 2018 recap Wed 2017 Warriors Cavaliers away 110-102 2&2 -4.5 216.5 8 3.5 -4.5 -0.5 -4.0 W W U 0
    Jun 08, 2018 recap Fri 2017 Warriors Cavaliers away 108-85 1&1 -5.0 216.0 23 18.0 -23.0 -2.5 -20.5 W W U 0

    Apr 28, 2018 recap Sat 2017 Warriors Pelicans home 123-101 3&6 -9.0 224.5 22 13.0 -0.5 6.2 -6.8 W W U 0
    May 01, 2018 recap Tue 2017 Warriors Pelicans home 121-116 2&2 -10.5 228.5 5 -5.5 8.5 1.5 7.0 W L O 0
    May 04, 2018 recap Fri 2017 Warriors Pelicans away 100-119 2&2 -5.0 233.0 -19 -24.0 -14.0 -19.0 5.0 L L U 0
    May 06, 2018 recap Sun 2017 Warriors Pelicans away 118-92 1&1 -6.0 231.5 26 20.0 -21.5 -0.8 -20.8 W W U 0
    May 08, 2018 recap Tue 2017 Warriors Pelicans home 113-104 1&1 -11.5 227.5 9 -2.5 -10.5 -6.5 -4.0 W L U 0
    May 14, 2018 recap Mon 2017 Warriors Rockets away 119-106 5&5 1.0 225.0 13 14.0 0.0 7.0 -7.0 W W P 0
    May 16, 2018 recap Wed 2017 Warriors Rockets away 105-127 1&1 2.0 225.5 -22 -20.0 6.5 -6.8 13.2 L L O 0
    May 20, 2018 recap Sun 2017 Warriors Rockets home 126-85 3&3 -8.0 226.0 41 33.0 -15.0 9.0 -24.0 W W U 0
    May 22, 2018 recap Tue 2017 Warriors Rockets home 92-95 1&1 -8.0 224.5 -3 -11.0 -37.5 -24.2 -13.2 L L U 0
    May 24, 2018 recap Thu 2017 Warriors Rockets away 94-98 1&1 0.0 219.5 -4 -4.0 -27.5 -15.8 -11.8 L L U 0
    May 26, 2018 recap Sat 2017 Warriors Rockets home 115-86 1&1 -12.5 213.0 29 16.5 -12.0 2.2 -14.2 W W U 0
    May 28, 2018 recap Mon 2017 Warriors Rockets away 101-92 1&1 -6.0 208.0 9 3.0 -15.0 -6.0 -9.0 W W U 0
    May 31, 2018 recap Thu 2017 Warriors Cavaliers home 124-114 2&3 -12.0 216.5 10 -2.0 21.5 9.8 11.8 W L O 1
    Jun 03, 2018 recap Sun 2017 Warriors Cavaliers home 122-103 2&2 -12.0 216.5 19 7.0 8.5 7.8 0.8 W W O 0
    Jun 06, 2018 recap Wed 2017 Warriors Cavaliers away 110-102 2&2 -4.5 216.5 8 3.5 -4.5 -0.5 -4.0 W W U 0
    Jun 08, 2018 recap Fri 2017 Warriors Cavaliers away 108-85 1&1 -5.0 216.0 23 18.0 -23.0 -2.5 -20.5 W W U 0

  4. #109
    danshan11
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    people undervalue series games, they teach us a ton about a few things
    how people bet after things happen, blowouts surprise winners, upsets
    how stable lines are even after a big occurrence
    value of players scratched from 1 game to the next
    most variables that can hide this stuff are not easy to hide in series games

  5. #110
    Alfa1234
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    People say its about the limits, they limit me cause I am so good, that is not true just use exchanges, they gladly take all action and they dont even know who the buyer of the game is.
    You don't know what you are talking about here...exchanges stopped taking all action long ago.
    Do you really think you are beating other players by betting at an exchange? Simply not true, you are beating the market makers of the exchange, so basically you are winning money off that exchange. Every penny you win there is a penny out of their pocket. They are bookmakers and nothing more. This is why Betfair invented their Premium charge, it's why Matchbook started charging premium charges this year and it's the reason Smarkets is working with razor thin margins, opening a sportsbook and has very limited liquidity.
    Last edited by Alfa1234; 12-18-18 at 03:18 PM.

  6. #111
    danshan11
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    never had that problem on fairlay or any other number of small exchanges. I am in the US and dont have any experience with the betfairs or other UK exchanges but there are places to bet no doubt, is the point, you can get down locally, you can use proxy people, you can use vpns, you can use btc betting sites and more. is it more work sure but getting down is rarely a real issue ESPECIALLY if you are so talented that the juice vig does not even matter cause you just pick winners, LOL!

  7. #112
    Alfa1234
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    never had that problem on fairlay or any other number of small exchanges
    Because you have not been winning much. Fairly is an exchange in name only as well. Every time you win, you are winning money from Fairlay, not from other users.

  8. #113
    danshan11
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    for real, I never win, how much you take off fairlay and they shut you down?

    fairlay is so screwed up and disorganized they would not even know how to shut you down IMHO

    I really dont believe fairlay is the book on their site, I believe they have 3rd party market makers and they dont know who is betting on them. I think fairlay is literally the wild west and they are not alone doing that. Fairlay charges a commission on each withdrawal and each transaction, they do not book the markets in my opinion, there are 3 market makers I see daily on fairlay one is bigger one is medium and one really small, all 3 are always there on major games

    fairlay also charges a hefty api fee and that is a big chunk of their money I would guess
    Last edited by danshan11; 12-18-18 at 03:27 PM.

  9. #114
    danshan11
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    your point is taken you high roller big shots cant bet OK, how many people do you think really get banned from books really get fricken real!

    they ban people cause they chase steam, they use shaky ************, they are obvious about being in a restricted area but because they kick ass and just stomp the book out of all their money, come on dude, you are smarter than that!

  10. #115
    danshan11
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    and as far as me placing bets and winning money, I am not a long term winner by any stretch, I never meant to imply that or give anyone the impression I am a winner cause I am not!

  11. #116
    danshan11
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    I dont want to argue about getting shut down, lets say you are 100% right, if you pick a 2 team parlay they shut you down for life OK. what about the other points I brought up ???? you are great for this conversation

  12. #117
    Alfa1234
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    I thought you were smarter than that...the net is filled with banned and limited people. Do a quick search and you'll see a large amount of books limit people that know what they are doing after only a few bets. Why do you think there are hundreds of people selling betting accounts? Because books don't ban or limit people to peanuts? Because so few people have that happen to their account that there is no market for these accounts?

    They don't shut people down that get lucky and win a few parlays, they shut down people that win consistently (or should be winning according to their betting patters). You can lose for 3 weeks straight and get the boot because they know it was variance and you'll beat them if you keep betting. Yes, I do know what I'm talking about and there are some other members here that know it too.

    I can guarantee you, if you start winning 10 to 20k from Fairly every month they will give you the boot. They'll know it's not luck if it's not. Believe it or don't believe it , but they will. Maybe Fairlay will even argue to keep your account open for a while with their market makers, but if you start hurting them enough and they are faced with the choice of keeping your account or keeping their market makers, who do you think they'll pick? This happened to Smarkets in their early years...they chose their market makers. It was a choice between bankruptcy or booting a few winners. Easy choice.

    Edit: finding a way to win is relatively easy, finding a way to keep getting on the stake you want is the really hard part after a while. This depends on the market of course...the harder the market is to beat, the easier you will be able to get on and the easier the market is to beat the harder you'll be able to get on. Even Pinnacle, SBO and Maxbet started limiting their sharp players by limiting all agent accounts.
    Last edited by Alfa1234; 12-18-18 at 03:52 PM.

  13. #118
    danshan11
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    yes you are right! I dont care about that really, your average bettor which is 99.99% of the people here are not getting shut down for winning, even though they say they are. how many people you seen here consistently beat the line enough to beat the books. i cant believe its even a discussion really, if you took 1000 SBR members how many you think been shut down for winning only, cause they do get shut down for other shit all day, trying to arb, stale lines, fake area ie VPN, bad C cards, but not winning dude, anyway i dont care lets talk about the other stuff

  14. #119
    HeeeHAWWWW
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    yes you are right! I dont care about that really, your average bettor which is 99.99% of the people here are not getting shut down for winning, even though they say they are.
    Something like 4% of UK gamblers are limited.

    Unfortunately it's just too easy these days for books to automatically figure out who is likely to cost them money longterm.

  15. #120
    HeeeHAWWWW
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alfa1234 View Post
    Even Pinnacle, SBO and Maxbet started limiting their sharp players by limiting all agent accounts.
    Supposedly that was forced on them because the agents started taking all the soft action themselves, and passing the sharp players to the books.

  16. #121
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeeHAWWWW View Post
    Something like 4% of UK gamblers are limited.

    Unfortunately it's just too easy these days for books to automatically figure out who is likely to cost them money longterm.
    great comment and how can a book do that? I think they do that by seeing that the person is doing very well against the line, what do you think they use to quickly determine if a player might hurt them

  17. #122
    TommieGunshot
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    yes you are right! I dont care about that really, your average bettor which is 99.99% of the people here are not getting shut down for winning, even though they say they are. how many people you seen here consistently beat the line enough to beat the books. i cant believe its even a discussion really, if you took 1000 SBR members how many you think been shut down for winning only, cause they do get shut down for other shit all day, trying to arb, stale lines, fake area ie VPN, bad C cards, but not winning dude, anyway i dont care lets talk about the other stuff
    Betting off market (whether stale, soft, or shaded), is winning

  18. #123
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    yes winning for sure no argument there. I was not being specific sorry did not know this was law and order but I was talking about just good old fashioned bad ass just pick winners screw the line, just bad ass game pickers, sorry I was not more specific

  19. #124
    tsty
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    well yeh agents are like half of pinnacle now

  20. #125
    tsty
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeeHAWWWW View Post
    Something like 4% of UK gamblers are limited.

    Unfortunately it's just too easy these days for books to automatically figure out who is likely to cost them money longterm.
    Probably worse in aus where they even limit racing betters lol

  21. #126
    HeeeHAWWWW
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    great comment and how can a book do that? I think they do that by seeing that the person is doing very well against the line, what do you think they use to quickly determine if a player might hurt them
    Machine learning, huge data set, pretty easy. Just take examples of long-term winners, roll back to the early days of those accounts, train the model on the usual variables: z-score, RoI, beating the closer, top line on odds comparison sites, etc etc. You then have a model that spits out a %, and just need to work out the tradeoffs (false positives etc) for optimal profitability.

    The larger the book the easier this will be.

  22. #127
    TommieGunshot
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    yes winning for sure no argument there. I was not being specific sorry did not know this was law and order but I was talking about just good old fashioned bad ass just pick winners screw the line, just bad ass game pickers, sorry I was not more specific
    Anyone not taking the number or price into account is just flipping coins and not making winning bets

  23. #128
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeeHAWWWW View Post
    Machine learning, huge data set, pretty easy. Just take examples of long-term winners, roll back to the early days of those accounts, train the model on the usual variables: z-score, RoI, beating the closer, top line on odds comparison sites, etc etc. You then have a model that spits out a %, and just need to work out the tradeoffs (false positives etc) for optimal profitability.

    The larger the book the easier this will be.
    so basically in order to determine if someone is a good player they look at whether that person can beat the line?

  24. #129
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by TommieGunshot View Post
    Anyone not taking the number or price into account is just flipping coins and not making winning bets
    so you are saying the best way to win is to beat the line?

  25. #130
    HeeeHAWWWW
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    so basically in order to determine if someone is a good player they look at whether that person can beat the line?
    No. I said multiple variables would be thrown into the mix.

  26. #131
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    yeah and all over them are a fancy way to say the same thing, getting the best of the line on a consistent basis or they can wait 12 years and see if he wins over a large sample size.

  27. #132
    HeeeHAWWWW
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    yeah and all over them are a fancy way to say the same thing, getting the best of the line on a consistent basis or they can wait 12 years and see if he wins over a large sample size.
    Well, that's why you throw multiple variables in there. Let the algorithm sort out which is important.

  28. #133
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    what about all the other stuff I said, what is your opinion?

  29. #134
    nash13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Charlies_Hustle2 View Post
    Hello...

    Who tells you that beating the closing line is how it's done? Think about it.... Think hard! Was it a Pinny youtube video, a writeup by a some other book, an idiot tout like Steve Stevens or Vegas Dave? Who put this seed in your head?

    Now ask yourself this! Which line is the sharpest line! If you know anything about efficient markets its the closing line which is the sharpest. Fighting it, trying to beat it is pretty much impossible. Learn how to use it and you'll make money. No way in hell I'm telling anyone how to do it but those hwo know who I am, know I make money and I make the most money when placing bets right before tip off, first pitch, etc.

    I use two tools: common sense and SDQL. SDQL doesn't provide opening and intra day lines, the only thing I work with is closing lines (or whatever you want to call SDQL's closing lines). With that said danshan is either a) a troll sent by the books to off track all of you or b) a novice bettor who read a few books and has been sent searching in the wrong direction.

    I'll leave this screen shot of an unders play I've been using lately, which is only the tip of an iceberg...

    https://imgur.com/a/3djCdLg

    ...Good bye
    I can not emphasize enough that the timing of the bet is the most important factor between winning and loosing.
    I work with some lower level bookies and all they want to achieve is winning money no matter the outcome of the game.
    This means that there are multiple ways to achieve this goal:
    1st: create a large vig to minimize the risk no matter how the market acts
    2nd: adapt to market situations early and direct the public to one side of the bet
    3rd: "bet" yourself. use your own money to create surebets at other platforms.

    this only adapt to the small lower level bookies. the bigger ones are the harder ones to crack.

  30. #135
    danshan11
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    1st what does the vig matter if these guys at SBR can just flat out pick winners
    2nd why? what is the point? what do you mean?
    3rd arbitrage?

  31. #136
    nash13
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    1st what does the vig matter if these guys at SBR can just flat out pick winners
    2nd why? what is the point? what do you mean?
    3rd arbitrage?
    i am looking at the bookies perspective here, small example for tonight
    Cavs vs Hornets
    5Dimes offers a payout with 98% payout ratio at the ML.
    -1000 at the hornets to win +800 for the cavs. that's at 1 bookie only.
    taking the maximum at any bookie
    -909 at dafabet for the hornets + 880 at betclic and others.
    and in comparison to that:
    interwetten and bet at home offer an "insulting" -1667 for the hornets +675 for the cavs.
    when these odds are considered fair by them and why? how do they even exist and how does anyone with reason bets these lines?
    this is the question you need to ask yourself when you try to understand what bookies are doing.
    in an optimized betting world we would have an accumulated program which lets us choose the best odd possible at the best bookie and with the highest limit.

    we don't have that. so by setting limits, creating vigs, moving lines they do everything possible to make profit no matter what. and you are not competing vs the bookie, your are competing vs the market.

  32. #137
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    but you are missing the point, guys on SBR dont care about the line, they can flat ass pick winners, so what is the difference between -1500 or -150000 if they only pick winners, if you knew I mean knew they were gonna win does the line matter? if you knew would you bet the loser if the line was a certain number?

  33. #138
    nash13
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    but you are missing the point, guys on SBR dont care about the line, they can flat ass pick winners, so what is the difference between -1500 or -150000 if they only pick winners, if you knew I mean knew they were gonna win does the line matter? if you knew would you bet the loser if the line was a certain number?
    i am talking about a bookie perspective how to create money for them.
    they don't care about a single bettor until they win enough.
    that's what the lower level bookies do.
    they limit you, they use some to tactics to delay your payment etc.
    it's like a big ponzi scheme - legalized.

    from a bettor perspective though: if you don't bet the maximum odds possible, you leave money on the table and in their pockets.
    to pick flat out winners is not an argument here, because the reality is that you are trying to get fair value on your bets.

    other example for you.
    you bet 10 games at +100 and win all of them and the other one offers you +150 for all of them would you not take the 150?
    does that not minimize your risk to loose money if your bets don't win enough?
    who are these guys who pick flat out winners day in day out?
    show me their stats and strategies and i will show you what their flaws are from my point of view.

  34. #139
    danshan11
    I am good at coin flips, I really am!
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    I am a pure 100% numbers guy I believe that the line is efficient and picking winners is a coin toss ATS, I am talking about tsty and the other guys on here that think they can pick winners, the line is a by product not the standard.

    they dont have a strategy they can look at the last 2 games of both teams and can pick winners from that or passer rating or number of first downs or pace or whatever shit they can come up with and flat out pick winners. this to me is funny but they say they can and have been doing it for years making millions, ask tsty or read his posts he makes millions he knows tons of guys winning 6 figures everyday

  35. #140
    nash13
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    I am a pure 100% numbers guy I believe that the line is efficient and picking winners is a coin toss ATS, I am talking about tsty and the other guys on here that think they can pick winners, the line is a by product not the standard.

    they dont have a strategy they can look at the last 2 games of both teams and can pick winners from that or passer rating or number of first downs or pace or whatever shit they can come up with and flat out pick winners. this to me is funny but they say they can and have been doing it for years making millions, ask tsty or read his posts he makes millions he knows tons of guys winning 6 figures everyday
    Good for them, but in the bigger picture useless. The betting industry is making money in the "grey" area. There is no fair regulation, they set their rules and you have to adapt to it. Since you are a numbers guy: it would be like someone from the outside telling you the stock market prizes each day and the you all start to run and look if these are fair or not.

    answer these questions for yourself: why does bookies like bet and win exist? how can they make money since they don't offer the best odds? what is the purpose of bonuses? why do they limit players and delay payments. who can you go to if you have a complaint about your situations?

    this is the toxic situation these mechanics work in. if tsty makes money good for him, but since the rest is loosing enough, no big deal.

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