1. #36
    KVB
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    Good posts in this thread.

    I agree that you need to make your own line and compare that to the market. It's a great tool to find even small edges and on on those notes it's also true that margins are thin and volume betting with value is a good way to go, even in larger markets.

    There are many doing it, but the environment makes it hard, you have to have outs at your outs.

    I'm posting that style with NCAAF markets, exploiting the edges that can still be found with road underdogs and Totals, mostly Unders.

    In the end though, one edge slightly mentioned is the one gained by being able to pass on games. That translated for both those trying to control impulse and those patiently waiting for their time to strike.

    Being able to pass is an edge over the book itself, for those who subscribe to the idea that bettors are competing against the books, and an edge of the rest of the market, for those who are beating other bettors, including the one's that just can't pass on some games.

    Last edited by KVB; 10-28-18 at 07:06 PM.

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  2. #37
    slapshot
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    on one hand trying to make complete sense of human performance in sports is impossible
    as it is heavily influenced by randomness.

    trying to quantify randomness in human performance can not be done.

    on the other hand spot betting based on gut feeling can certainly work.
    the problem with spot betting is money management.

    if you want to make difference on your money earned but suffer from randomness you'll kill your bank roll.

    if you use a more balanced money management strategy spot betting will most likely
    be not be worth while as the picks are few and far between.

    using a model to systematically identify the signal in the noise can be another solution but very difficult, very time and energy consuming.

  3. #38
    Rich Boy
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    dont say this on SBR, they will get pissed and people will call you a troll.
    My comments aren't meant to discourage, just my observations of the current market conditions.

    I think there are much better opportunities out there (not in sports markets) that provide strong edges to make a decent living.

    If you guys want to try and attack the sports markets my advice is to hammer off numbers at square books with small bets (under $500) and you can probably get away with that for a while before they give you the boot.

    Once you get banned, try developing models using large sample historical databases to handicap props and other smaller markets. Use that in combination with line hunting between books and you can make a few bucks, but it will still be a grind and the edges wont be great

  4. #39
    HeeeHAWWWW
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    It's still possible, but as above, increasingly tough. If you were starting now it would be really very difficult indeed - I have measures of market efficiency, and they get sharper every year. Fortunately, so do I :-)

    The problem will come when the odds generators, and perhaps large syndicates, get access to advanced data the rest of the market doesn't have. I'm thinking biometric/location trackers for every player: heart rate, o2 consumption, etc etc. Apply machine learning and that's an unbeatable advantage, nobody else will be able to compete.

  5. #40
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Boy View Post
    My comments aren't meant to discourage, just my observations of the current market conditions.

    I think there are much better opportunities out there (not in sports markets) that provide strong edges to make a decent living.

    If you guys want to try and attack the sports markets my advice is to hammer off numbers at square books with small bets (under $500) and you can probably get away with that for a while before they give you the boot.

    Once you get banned, try developing models using large sample historical databases to handicap props and other smaller markets. Use that in combination with line hunting between books and you can make a few bucks, but it will still be a grind and the edges wont be great
    the craziest thing I have learned here is what people believe
    1. that things that matter are not in the line
    2. that you dont need to beat the closing line
    3. and tons more of fun things like the 2 above
    pure insanity and do they get pissed at me, call me a troll, a liar, and more creative names.

  6. #41
    owain
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    This is an interesting thread. You can get a +edge ok, you can even make money with a - edge with the right staking The problem is that bookies limit you as soon as you show any sign of sharpness. Betting in small markets ? Bet on anything with less than 30 bookies offering odds and limits come very quick. That's the UK. And not enough liquidity in the exchanges to make them worthwhile. I've seriously been thinking about becoming a tipster and letting somebody else have the hassle of bookie limitations.

  7. #42
    danshan11
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    if you want an edge create your own fair line and if you can bet better than margin on that edge bet it and if the line moves your way more than 75% of the time you are doing good and have a very very small chance to succeed if you can do that 100s of times per day.
    I can crush WNBA lines all day long, great CLV but I will still lose 40-45% of the time just on variance because it takes 1000s and 1000s of games to overcome variance. You can see it yourself do a coin flip simulation over 1000 times or think of your history, I have tons of friends who bet and they get hot and cold, they win ten straight lose ten straight and more craziness because its variance, they at the end of their betting life unless they are consistently beating the line (75% of the time bigger than margin) will pay the juice, if they bet long enough.
    beat the line 5-10 times a day, good in 50 years you will probably see your net profit
    beat the line over 100 times a day you will start to see a consistent return.
    I see it over and over, people have an edge and win 1 or 2 seasons and then miracle happens they are beating the line but losing over and over, they say I suck I am doing something wrong, run out of money, get discouraged, whatever. There are 2 pieces to the puzzle crush the line and do it 100s of times a day only way to win IMHO.

  8. #43
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by owain View Post
    This is an interesting thread. You can get a +edge ok, you can even make money with a - edge with the right staking The problem is that bookies limit you as soon as you show any sign of sharpness. Betting in small markets ? Bet on anything with less than 30 bookies offering odds and limits come very quick. That's the UK. And not enough liquidity in the exchanges to make them worthwhile. I've seriously been thinking about becoming a tipster and letting somebody else have the hassle of bookie limitations.
    most of the people who actually make money on sports betting usually are not the bettors. its tipsters, marketers, cash converters, writers, forum owners, and more, they make the money! Even though in my opinion tipster service is a hard business to profit in and unless you are giving out 100s of tips per day that are beating the line, your buyers wont win and will leave. Most people dont understand how betting works and as soon as you lose 10-20 in a row they are done, call you a scam and ask for a refund. so you get a bad name and have to change it 4 or 5 times per year

  9. #44
    HeeeHAWWWW
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    Quote Originally Posted by owain View Post
    This is an interesting thread. You can get a +edge ok, you can even make money with a - edge with the right staking The problem is that bookies limit you as soon as you show any sign of sharpness. Betting in small markets ? Bet on anything with less than 30 bookies offering odds and limits come very quick. That's the UK. And not enough liquidity in the exchanges to make them worthwhile. I've seriously been thinking about becoming a tipster and letting somebody else have the hassle of bookie limitations.
    You need an agent account, to get access to Pinnacle and the Asian books. No limits there.

    Euro and most US-facing books aren't worth the bother. They all limit sooner or later.

  10. #45
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeeHAWWWW View Post
    You need an agent account, to get access to Pinnacle and the Asian books. No limits there.

    Euro and most US-facing books aren't worth the bother. They all limit sooner or later.
    you got to make sure you actually have an edge.

  11. #46
    Rich Boy
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    10 years doing this and only 1 strategy ever worked consistently for me, and that was using sharper books opinions (Pinnacle, 5dimes, Betfair) and using that information to hammer off numbers at square books (SIA, Bodog, Bet365). I would get banned eventually and open a new account under a friends/family members name and with another IP address, rinse and repeat until banned again. That is the ONLY method I found consistent success with.

    Whenever I tried to "out handicap" the books and try to beat the lines at Pinnacle or 5dimes I wouldn't have the same level of success. Although I was still mildly profitable over the years, it was a very slow grind over time. Dont try to beat these books, its an uphill battle, instead use the information they are giving away for FREE as a resource to punish books who disagree with that opinion.

  12. #47
    danshan11
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    that is a good strategy, that is called beating the line!

  13. #48
    nash13
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    if you go to http://www.thepredictiontracker.com you can see that historically the variance in the result of the rating and prediction methods are very very big. a system which beats the lines for one season may disappear the next one.
    you have to find small markets without sharp lines to beat the bookies.

  14. #49
    danshan11
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    does anyone know of any good bookmaking books, the basics, the how to or details on the math?

  15. #50
    PaperTrail07
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    Adderall lol
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  16. #51
    biggie12
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    Nba is still a big market right?

    havent had a losing year since 2012

    and if i didnt bet on my home team so much more money would be in my pockets
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  17. #52
    danshan11
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    that is awesome on the NBA, do you do it for a living or just fun?

  18. #53
    biggie12
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    that is awesome on the NBA, do you do it for a living or just fun?
    nobody is doing this for a living.

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  19. #54
    danshan11
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    if you have not lost in 7 years, why the heck not? how many games have you played roughly over that 6 years in the NBA?

  20. #55
    tsty
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    like i said in the previous thread

    it's irrelevant if you win or lose

    it's how much money you make

    he probably up a few hundred or a grand who gives a penetrate

  21. #56
    Dakota
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Boy View Post
    10 years doing this and only 1 strategy ever worked consistently for me, and that was using sharper books opinions (Pinnacle, 5dimes, Betfair) and using that information to hammer off numbers at square books (SIA, Bodog, Bet365). I would get banned eventually and open a new account under a friends/family members name and with another IP address, rinse and repeat until banned again. That is the ONLY method I found consistent success with.

    Whenever I tried to "out handicap" the books and try to beat the lines at Pinnacle or 5dimes I wouldn't have the same level of success. Although I was still mildly profitable over the years, it was a very slow grind over time. Dont try to beat these books, its an uphill battle, instead use the information they are giving away for FREE as a resource to punish books who disagree with that opinion.
    what time ofday do u compare the lines?

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  22. #57
    TheCaliforniaKid
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    NHL Backup Goalies

    I've been wagering and winning many years, betting against the back up goalies in the NHL. Some are better than others, but there's reasoning why they are the back up goalies. Each day, the starting goalies are announced. Take a look at it, look at their numbers, and bet accordingly. Best kept secret (till now) in sports.

  23. #58
    danshan11
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    I do the opposite, I built this bad ass model for the NHL and it was getting crushed because of last minute goalie changes, so I could not use it. I hate the goalie system definitely not bettor friendly. TBH it probably is the biggest margin in sports if you can beat the line to the announcement of a goalie change

  24. #59
    biggie12
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    if you have not lost in 7 years, why the heck not? how many games have you played roughly over that 6 years in the NBA?
    probably around 175k maybe 275k if i never bet raptors.


    u try living off 10-15k a yesr doing this for a living .... spending what 12-14 hours a day ? do the math on that and the n go apply at mcDs

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  25. #60
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by biggie12 View Post
    probably around 175k maybe 275k if i never bet raptors.


    u try living off 10-15k a yesr doing this for a living .... spending what 12-14 hours a day ? do the math on that and the n go apply at mcDs
    yeah but if truly have an edge, you should be betting heavy on it, dont you think?

  26. #61
    Rich Boy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dakota View Post
    what time ofday do u compare the lines?
    As close to start time as possible

  27. #62
    biggie12
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    yeah but if truly have an edge, you should be betting heavy on it, dont you think?
    i think you have alot to learn.

    my avg bet size between $500-2000

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  28. #63
    danshan11
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    I hope to learn, that is why I post all day and ask questions, always trying to learn, thanks for the info.

  29. #64
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by biggie12 View Post
    i think you have alot to learn.

    my avg bet size between $500-2000
    oh forgot, I really want to learn more, what areas would you recommend I study up on? thanks again!

  30. #65
    oilcountry99
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    Quote Originally Posted by biggie12 View Post
    i think you have alot to learn.

    my avg bet size between $500-2000
    Educate us biggie12, were here to learn and grow, thanks for your contributions

  31. #66
    aston
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    the days of making money were 1995 to 2005 these days the books are bloody near impossible to beat

    but spot betting is the key to have any chance to win
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  32. #67
    TheMoneyShot
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    I usually have a captain and coke to get that edge.
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  33. #68
    dpark80
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    Yes, this is so true. Anyone that thinks they can outsmart the oddsmakers are fooling themselves. None of us will ever be able to get close to the same amount of information the oddsmakers have at their disposal. Instead of trying to beat the oddsmakers, I try to use their expertise to my advantage. It seems counterintuitive, but I've put together a formula on NBA games that takes into account just a few statistics for each team. Most games are 50-50 tossups ATS, but there are some games that have an edge. The key is to ignore the 50-50 games.

    I started using it on January 15th of last year. From January 15th through the first round of the playoffs, I went 81-45-3 (64.29% winning percentage).

    So far this year I'm 13-8 (61.9%). Not sure how I'm going to do this year, but hopefully my results can hold up.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Boy View Post
    These are some truths about sports handicapping into todays markets:

    1) Beating the books now a days is MUCH harder than it used to be, which is why I have transitioned mostly to stock trading (PM me if interested)

    2) Dont even think about trying to beat books in major markets (NFL, NBA, MLB sides), dont even fkn try it! The lines are too efficient and you are already at a significant disadvantage. Books know everything you know and a whole lot more, they have countless historical data, trends, and also the input of some of the sharpest handicappers and syndicate groups in the industry betting into their lines, you dont have any of that info. Even if you can consistently out handicap books in major markets, there is really no point, your edges will be minuscule at best and you will have to grind out profits over a massive sample of games. Dont make things harder for yourself.

    3) Your only chance as a handicapper these days it to focus on lines books dont care about (smaller markets, props, futures, team totals, etc) The juice on these lines may be higher and the limits lower but thats exactly what you want. Hammer the books where they are SCARED to get beat since you the small time bettor actually has a chance of handicapping the lines more efficiently than the books

    4) Any winning players that show success will be closely monitored and either limited, banned or books will sharpen up anything you are consistently beating them at. Thats the drawdown of taking someones money, they arent going to like it and you can bet they have tons of money invested in making sure you dont beat them consistently. That is why stocks are so much better, you can consistently win under the radar and nobody is going to try and stop you. Edges are plush and money easy to make if you have discipline.

    Making money in todays markets is near fkn impossible, let me tell you as a hardcore math and statistics guy.

  34. #69
    danshan11
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    how are you doing against the closing line on those bets?

  35. #70
    Bsims
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    Quote Originally Posted by dpark80 View Post
    Yes, this is so true. Anyone that thinks they can outsmart the oddsmakers are fooling themselves. None of us will ever be able to get close to the same amount of information the oddsmakers have at their disposal. Instead of trying to beat the oddsmakers, I try to use their expertise to my advantage.
    I pretty much agree with you. A while back, I started a thread here called "Leveraging the sports books lines against them". If your approach is a can be expressed as an algorithm, then I would suggest back testing over several past seasons. That would depend on what data elements are involved. I have a lot of past data I would share with you if it would be helpful..

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