[danshan11]

I hear a ton of people on twitter and here claiming to make money long term on the NFL, I dont doubt their claims but I really dont see how.

I checked since the beginning of the NFL season and spreads and totals only moved enough to beat the margin on 7 games since the regular season started. Most of those games the profit was less than 1%. So how do people win at the NFL, I really don't understand?

[deltgen]

At the risk of sounding much too simplistic, the answer comes down to this: pick the winner. I'm not saying that in a smart-ass way either; one can do all the number-crunching in the world, and the pick makes perfect mathematical sense, but the opposite side wins the game (or at least covers). Pick the right team, at a high rate, and you'll be a winner no matter what the margins/movements do.

[danshan11]

is it really possible to pick winners against the spread at a higher rate than the margin? isnt that what the spread is to eliminate value on either side, to in a sense make the game a coin toss ?

[Barrakuda]

It's no different than any other ATS sport. Beat the spread often enough to overcome the juice and you will profit. Point spreads are far from perfect.

As for the "ton of people" on twitter, 99.9% of them are lying. It takes rare skill to beat any large market long-term.

[danshan11]

you cant beat the spread, it essentially creates a coin toss and if the market does not move enough to create space you are paying the juice, RIGHT?

[gojetsgomoxies]

i've never really understood this idea that the closing line is extremely efficient. certainly i think it's more efficient than less.

but i don't see how someone with good handicapping and research skills can't win fairly nicely using only closing lines.

fyi, i do moderately statistical analysis to a large degree for a living, so i think i understand the value of information (and also that anything that is highly profitable and too easy to do won't last)

[danshan11]

I dont see how anyone can predict coin flips better than 50-50, maybe a tarot card reader, who knows how they do it!

[gojetsgomoxies]

I dont see how anyone can predict coin flips better than 50-50, maybe a tarot card reader, who knows how they do it!

picking the games randomly (i.e. getting my grandmother to make an ATS pick on Dallas-Philadelphia game) is a coin-flip. i don't think actually having very good knowledge/analysis is a coin-flip..

i will say though that at a high level it is hard to countenance that a 5% commission is beatable (20 cent line = 5% commission). stated alternatively you need 52.5% win rate or similar (52.5% - 47.5% = 5% commish)... i believe this math is correct.

[danshan11]

the current line is a betting consensus of some of the sharpest minds in sports against a huge NERF and Square population and pushing against each other all day until (i you) step up and say Bears are gonna cover this game, its crazy to believe that, I know, I know so many great sharps doing it everyday and Pinnacle is just paying out the ass everyday and keeps the doors open for charity, if the lines could be beat, they would be and the market would be gone. would you take bets if someone could crush you everyday all day. People cant and dont and that is why Pinnacle and every other sharp book is still open, they open at -3 -175 and it closes at -3.5 -184 with a nickel or dime margin, zero profit there, you can argue the other side all day.

you think rushing yards per game matter ok if its true its in the line
you think 3rd eff matters if it does its in the line
you think if Brady is hot right now matters its not in the line, if it does matter its in the line.
anything you can look up and that really matters is in the line.
you think some lines are not sharp, really and only you see it, there are a zillion people sitting around with full accounts waiting for you to bet 1 dollar wrong and they run in and scoop that up. Go to an exchange and bet your opinions not the current line your opinions and see how fast people suck up all that action, if you think a fair line for pats chiefs is -7 and its -3 put it up for -7 at -110 on an exchange and see how fast that money is gone. I am at the conclusion the NFL lines are too sharp and team injury and other news is too good, there is very little room in the NFL. you cannot get enough movement to beat the line, last week pats opened -475 closed -500 that is not even half the margin, tell me how you can beat that.

[danshan11]

tell me how can you beat that, very very hard

[JoeCool20]

Of course you can't beat the sheit. people "handicap" and "research" themselves to death, and then a fumble, or

interception, or a holding call will make all their "studies" totally moot.

In the NFL, (or any other league or sport either for that matter) I either take the points, or I just don't bet.

And I really try to bet as sparsely as I can so I don't lose! LOL

They didn't build Vegas out of the pure Desert sand because people win!!

[danshan11]

the NFL is for fine and I really love the game but understand I cant beat it, its not like MLB or College sports, it is very sharp, pretty much same with big NCAAF matches

[JoeCool20]

the NFL is for fine and I really love the game but understand I cant beat it, its not like MLB or College sports, it is very sharp, pretty much same with big NCAAF matches

I don't give a damn about any of it, because I KNOW it is a losing game. Trying to bet 10 or 20 games a week

and coming out on top is a freakin pipe dream.

When I start betting, I call it "engaging".

Because I become engaged in it until I win a little bit and try to quit & get a payout.

OR the worse one, which is that I start losing and then I stay engaged to the sheit until I lose thousands of dollars.

My life is a LOT better off when I just don't "engage" in the sheit at ALL!!

[chilidog]

1. First you have to remember that everybody is a winner on Twitter. Nobody ever loses on Twitter.

2. Second, there's a reason why NFL has the highest betting limits at US-facing books.

[danshan11]

all that said, it is just funny that you still have a million guys that will come on here and say they can beat the NFL and the fact is that is just not true, you cant, the line does not move enough on enough games to account for margin and variance, The NFL is too sharp

[Inspirited]

I'm historically bad at NFL. True fade material bad. So perhaps I could win at NFL betting.

[danshan11]

you most likely are margin bad, if you are any worse than you are great, right?

[jets96]

I guess ill have to start posting my nfl plays here ,not such a good sunday , had bears -3 , went to -7 , do you include that game into not having a margin , i took cleve early in the week getting pts and said they should be favorites and they ended up favorites. Took pitt , thought that game should be closer to pk ...got 2.5 .....same example but all those type game equal out in the long run , shit happens ...on lost on the pats laying 3.5 ....

Dan your still the man ...you ready ...

[danshan11]

I dont mess with the NFL once I did the research, I dont see the value there but I know some people find a way but not me, I am NBA ready and ready to roll! TOMORROW!