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1. ## Converting ML Odds into Spreads in Tennis

Hi,
is there a formula or table where I can convert ML Odds into Spreads for Tennis in WTA/ATP in best of 3 or 5 set matches?
I am looking for something like this:
1.01 to 1.05 --> -8.5
1.06 to 1.08 --> -8
etc.
Any kind of help would be very nice.

2. just take the pinnacle spread for each AH

3. Originally Posted by danshan11
just take the pinnacle spread for each AH
i would, but rather looking up each odd manually there might be a place where they are listed as above.

4. you can make a list in 20 seconds
just take a game and run down the spreads it will give you an avg value of each set or whatever and you go from there, its a one time thing not every time

5. guy is a -169 fave and +1.5 sets he is -408
410-170=240 240/3 80 80 cents a half set
guy is -169 fave and -1 game he is -145 so 25 cents a game more or less

now the only issue is in different sports there is big break points like the NFL at 3 and 7 those could get tricky but this is the general idea of how it works! NOTHING Exact here and big faves you might see a different ratio but I bet its darn close!

6. It changes a bit based on total. The greater the total, the less each half-game matters.

You also see some weirdness in men versus women. Men of similar moneylines are a bit more likely to blow the first set, and play 3 sets.
For example, if you have a big favorite (like -1000 no-vig) men win that first set about 91%, versus women at 93%. If you play 3 setters, the value of each half-game goes down also.

7. Originally Posted by vampire assassin
It changes a bit based on total. The greater the total, the less each half-game matters.

You also see some weirdness in men versus women. Men of similar moneylines are a bit more likely to blow the first set, and play 3 sets.
For example, if you have a big favorite (like -1000 no-vig) men win that first set about 91%, versus women at 93%. If you play 3 setters, the value of each half-game goes down also.
Exactly. That is the main problem. My predicted pattern shows a significant rise for favs covering the spread once they win than any other sports

8. Originally Posted by nash13
Exactly. That is the main problem. My predicted pattern shows a significant rise for favs covering the spread once they win than any other sports
if there is any truth to what you are saying, I would assume that is in the line already

here is the data compiled from tennis data co uk

10. if you took about 10-15 typical scenarios you could get fairly accurate estimates but nothing exact because the market plays into it as well

11. the problem here is: ONCE THEY WIN

12. Originally Posted by vampire assassin
It changes a bit based on total. The greater the total, the less each half-game matters.

You also see some weirdness in men versus women. Men of similar moneylines are a bit more likely to blow the first set, and play 3 sets.
For example, if you have a big favorite (like -1000 no-vig) men win that first set about 91%, versus women at 93%. If you play 3 setters, the value of each half-game goes down also.
this sounds like it is not random data so the data is probably in the line, dont you agree?

13. i started tracking live last month: once the fav wins it was 304-79 on pinnacle closing odds.

14. Originally Posted by nash13
i started tracking live last month: once the fav wins it was 304-79 on pinnacle closing odds.
win probability was what ?
odds implied probability minus juice was what?
and that sample is way too small even if it looked good! Could just be random

15. Originally Posted by danshan11
win probability was what ?
odds implied probability minus juice was what?
and that sample is way too small even if it looked good! Could just be random
avg odds were -185.19 for the favs. that's the reason why i want to have a deeper look into the ML odds.

16. Originally Posted by nash13
i started tracking live last month: once the fav wins it was 304-79 on pinnacle closing odds.
Is that 304-79 covering the game spread when they win?

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17. To make it more accurate: the value of each game played in tennis is much higher in tennis than every basket/point covering the spread in any ATS Sport like Basketball/Football. My assumption is based on good ML prediction data you can find some loopholes predicting ATS winner too.
I use Massey Rating, Tennis Abstract and TB365 who offer free prediction data. I converted them into a wighted formula.

18. to be honest tennis always looks very promising on paper before you consider margin. tennis has huge pre game margins and some crazy high live odds, nearly impossible to beat and books know players quit, cheat and lie and because of this they cover their ass very good with HUGE margins.

19. Originally Posted by Optional
Is that 304-79 covering the game spread when they win?
yes, but i fond it easier to predict a winner in Tennis than in any other sport.

20. Originally Posted by nash13
yes, but i fond it easier to predict a winner in Tennis than in any other sport.
well that is great! I just want you to be fully aware of the margin and also remember tennis does some funny shit with where the margin goes, they know nobody plays the dogs and they move that margin heavy on the other side

21. the conversion rates for fav wins in other sports:
NBA: 72.9%
NFL: 74.1%
CFL: 73.2%
NCAA FB: 65.8%
NCAA BB: 67.9%

since i got these numbers i started to look for ATS data for tennis games.

22. its all about ATS, what percentage wins ATS or the moneyline

79% winners at -390 avg line is not good when you consider a huge margin

23. Not ML winners my post might mislead you.
the percentages cover the ATS Wins of pre game Favs if they actually win the game.
So like the old saying: good teams win, great teams cover.

24. Im getting confused what you need to answer is 2 questions
what is the line they are winning on when you our could bet it?
what is the % they are winning
then break that into a few chunks to avoid randomness
chunk 1 all of them
chunk 2 huge faves
chunk 3 slight faves
chunk 4 name starts with A-J
chunk 5 name starts with J -Z
and see what the results look like

25. if the line is say -200 (66%) and they are winning -400 (80% you might have something here depending on the margin if 2 conditions are met
HUGE HUGE SAMPLE SIZE over 3000 records minimum
and the real gap is bigger than the margin on Tennis cause the tennis margin is NUTS!

26. that is the point. i am looking at this because tennis is nuts.

27. Originally Posted by nash13
The long-term figure is 71.63% for men, 71.56% for women. That's pinnacle odds last 15 years, including challengers (and women's equivalent, itfs of \$25k).

Not terribly useful though.

28. Originally Posted by HeeeHAWWWW
The long-term figure is 71.63% for men, 71.56% for women. That's pinnacle odds last 15 years, including challengers (and women's equivalent, itfs of \$25k).

Not terribly useful though.
thank you. that was what i am looking for.

29. i am just curious obviously I have no clue but what good is that info?

30. Originally Posted by danshan11
i am just curious obviously I have no clue but what good is that info?
None imo. However, OP said he only had the figure for last month or whatever, just thought I'd put a longer term average out there.

The problem here is that it first requires you to know the moneyline winning % - for reference, favs win at something like 68% in tennis (can't be bothered looking up, but somewhere in that ballpark). 0.716*0.68 = 0.49 spread wins.
Points Awarded:
 danshan11 gave HeeeHAWWWW 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.

31. I guess it's more of a theoretical discussion for me. Once you have an edge at ML Odds, does this transfer to ATS betting as well.
I am testing these things on paper so no harm done.

32. Originally Posted by nash13
I guess it's more of a theoretical discussion for me. Once you have an edge at ML Odds, does this transfer to ATS betting as well.
I am testing these things on paper so no harm done.
usually if you find a ML edge on a team or player it rolls over to most handicaps BUT a little less because of the prop margin increase on most smaller things

33. Originally Posted by danshan11
usually if you find a ML edge on a team or player it rolls over to most handicaps BUT a little less because of the prop margin increase on most smaller things
not true at all

34. Originally Posted by tsty
not true at all
thanks tsty for the insight but can you elaborate
my opinion is
Frank ML +120 currently you got him at -110 so that is an edge assuming he will close closer to -110 and you bet at +120
I think in turn the other bets involving this player are going to be based largely on the current +120 and will move accordingly

example Browns O/U 43
so 1st half is probably 21
1st quarter is 10.5
if it moves to 40
1st half moves to 19
qtr moves to 9

if the moneyline is +120 the spread might be +1.5
if the moneyline moves to -110 the spread will probably be PICK
something like that, you dont agree or how is that wrong, thanks for the input!

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