1. #1
    nash13
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    Converting ML Odds into Spreads in Tennis

    Hi,
    is there a formula or table where I can convert ML Odds into Spreads for Tennis in WTA/ATP in best of 3 or 5 set matches?
    I am looking for something like this:
    1.01 to 1.05 --> -8.5
    1.06 to 1.08 --> -8
    etc.
    Any kind of help would be very nice.

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  3. #3
    danshan11
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    just take the pinnacle spread for each AH

  4. #4
    nash13
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    just take the pinnacle spread for each AH
    i would, but rather looking up each odd manually there might be a place where they are listed as above.

  5. #5
    danshan11
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    you can make a list in 20 seconds
    just take a game and run down the spreads it will give you an avg value of each set or whatever and you go from there, its a one time thing not every time

  6. #6
    danshan11
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    guy is a -169 fave and +1.5 sets he is -408
    410-170=240 240/3 80 80 cents a half set
    guy is -169 fave and -1 game he is -145 so 25 cents a game more or less

    now the only issue is in different sports there is big break points like the NFL at 3 and 7 those could get tricky but this is the general idea of how it works! NOTHING Exact here and big faves you might see a different ratio but I bet its darn close!

  7. #7
    vampire assassin
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    It changes a bit based on total. The greater the total, the less each half-game matters.

    You also see some weirdness in men versus women. Men of similar moneylines are a bit more likely to blow the first set, and play 3 sets.
    For example, if you have a big favorite (like -1000 no-vig) men win that first set about 91%, versus women at 93%. If you play 3 setters, the value of each half-game goes down also.

  8. #8
    nash13
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    Quote Originally Posted by vampire assassin View Post
    It changes a bit based on total. The greater the total, the less each half-game matters.

    You also see some weirdness in men versus women. Men of similar moneylines are a bit more likely to blow the first set, and play 3 sets.
    For example, if you have a big favorite (like -1000 no-vig) men win that first set about 91%, versus women at 93%. If you play 3 setters, the value of each half-game goes down also.
    Exactly. That is the main problem. My predicted pattern shows a significant rise for favs covering the spread once they win than any other sports

  9. #9
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by nash13 View Post
    Exactly. That is the main problem. My predicted pattern shows a significant rise for favs covering the spread once they win than any other sports
    if there is any truth to what you are saying, I would assume that is in the line already

  10. #10
    nash13
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    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1966339167
    here is the data compiled from tennis data co uk

  11. #11
    danshan11
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    if you took about 10-15 typical scenarios you could get fairly accurate estimates but nothing exact because the market plays into it as well

  12. #12
    nash13
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    the problem here is: ONCE THEY WIN

  13. #13
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by vampire assassin View Post
    It changes a bit based on total. The greater the total, the less each half-game matters.

    You also see some weirdness in men versus women. Men of similar moneylines are a bit more likely to blow the first set, and play 3 sets.
    For example, if you have a big favorite (like -1000 no-vig) men win that first set about 91%, versus women at 93%. If you play 3 setters, the value of each half-game goes down also.
    this sounds like it is not random data so the data is probably in the line, dont you agree?

  14. #14
    nash13
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    i started tracking live last month: once the fav wins it was 304-79 on pinnacle closing odds.

  15. #15
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by nash13 View Post
    i started tracking live last month: once the fav wins it was 304-79 on pinnacle closing odds.
    win probability was what ?
    odds implied probability minus juice was what?
    and that sample is way too small even if it looked good! Could just be random

  16. #16
    nash13
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    win probability was what ?
    odds implied probability minus juice was what?
    and that sample is way too small even if it looked good! Could just be random
    avg odds were -185.19 for the favs. that's the reason why i want to have a deeper look into the ML odds.

  17. #17
    Optional
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    Quote Originally Posted by nash13 View Post
    i started tracking live last month: once the fav wins it was 304-79 on pinnacle closing odds.
    Is that 304-79 covering the game spread when they win?

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  18. #18
    nash13
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    To make it more accurate: the value of each game played in tennis is much higher in tennis than every basket/point covering the spread in any ATS Sport like Basketball/Football. My assumption is based on good ML prediction data you can find some loopholes predicting ATS winner too.
    I use Massey Rating, Tennis Abstract and TB365 who offer free prediction data. I converted them into a wighted formula.

  19. #19
    danshan11
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    to be honest tennis always looks very promising on paper before you consider margin. tennis has huge pre game margins and some crazy high live odds, nearly impossible to beat and books know players quit, cheat and lie and because of this they cover their ass very good with HUGE margins.

  20. #20
    nash13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    Is that 304-79 covering the game spread when they win?
    yes, but i fond it easier to predict a winner in Tennis than in any other sport.

  21. #21
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by nash13 View Post
    yes, but i fond it easier to predict a winner in Tennis than in any other sport.
    well that is great! I just want you to be fully aware of the margin and also remember tennis does some funny shit with where the margin goes, they know nobody plays the dogs and they move that margin heavy on the other side

  22. #22
    nash13
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    the conversion rates for fav wins in other sports:
    NBA: 72.9%
    NFL: 74.1%
    CFL: 73.2%
    NCAA FB: 65.8%
    NCAA BB: 67.9%

    i had 79% in tennis.

    since i got these numbers i started to look for ATS data for tennis games.

  23. #23
    danshan11
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    its all about ATS, what percentage wins ATS or the moneyline

    79% winners at -390 avg line is not good when you consider a huge margin

  24. #24
    nash13
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    Not ML winners my post might mislead you.
    the percentages cover the ATS Wins of pre game Favs if they actually win the game.
    So like the old saying: good teams win, great teams cover.

  25. #25
    danshan11
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    Im getting confused what you need to answer is 2 questions
    what is the line they are winning on when you our could bet it?
    what is the % they are winning
    then break that into a few chunks to avoid randomness
    chunk 1 all of them
    chunk 2 huge faves
    chunk 3 slight faves
    chunk 4 name starts with A-J
    chunk 5 name starts with J -Z
    and see what the results look like

  26. #26
    danshan11
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    if the line is say -200 (66%) and they are winning -400 (80% you might have something here depending on the margin if 2 conditions are met
    HUGE HUGE SAMPLE SIZE over 3000 records minimum
    and the real gap is bigger than the margin on Tennis cause the tennis margin is NUTS!

  27. #27
    nash13
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    that is the point. i am looking at this because tennis is nuts.

  28. #28
    HeeeHAWWWW
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    Quote Originally Posted by nash13 View Post
    i had 79% in tennis.
    The long-term figure is 71.63% for men, 71.56% for women. That's pinnacle odds last 15 years, including challengers (and women's equivalent, itfs of $25k).

    Not terribly useful though.

  29. #29
    nash13
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeeHAWWWW View Post
    The long-term figure is 71.63% for men, 71.56% for women. That's pinnacle odds last 15 years, including challengers (and women's equivalent, itfs of $25k).

    Not terribly useful though.
    thank you. that was what i am looking for.

  30. #30
    danshan11
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    i am just curious obviously I have no clue but what good is that info?

  31. #31
    HeeeHAWWWW
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    i am just curious obviously I have no clue but what good is that info?
    None imo. However, OP said he only had the figure for last month or whatever, just thought I'd put a longer term average out there.

    The problem here is that it first requires you to know the moneyline winning % - for reference, favs win at something like 68% in tennis (can't be bothered looking up, but somewhere in that ballpark). 0.716*0.68 = 0.49 spread wins.
    Last edited by HeeeHAWWWW; 10-01-18 at 05:13 PM.
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  32. #32
    nash13
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    I guess it's more of a theoretical discussion for me. Once you have an edge at ML Odds, does this transfer to ATS betting as well.
    I am testing these things on paper so no harm done.

  33. #33
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by nash13 View Post
    I guess it's more of a theoretical discussion for me. Once you have an edge at ML Odds, does this transfer to ATS betting as well.
    I am testing these things on paper so no harm done.
    usually if you find a ML edge on a team or player it rolls over to most handicaps BUT a little less because of the prop margin increase on most smaller things

  34. #34
    tsty
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    usually if you find a ML edge on a team or player it rolls over to most handicaps BUT a little less because of the prop margin increase on most smaller things
    not true at all

  35. #35
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by tsty View Post
    not true at all
    thanks tsty for the insight but can you elaborate
    my opinion is
    Frank ML +120 currently you got him at -110 so that is an edge assuming he will close closer to -110 and you bet at +120
    I think in turn the other bets involving this player are going to be based largely on the current +120 and will move accordingly

    example Browns O/U 43
    so 1st half is probably 21
    1st quarter is 10.5
    if it moves to 40
    1st half moves to 19
    qtr moves to 9

    if the moneyline is +120 the spread might be +1.5
    if the moneyline moves to -110 the spread will probably be PICK
    something like that, you dont agree or how is that wrong, thanks for the input!

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