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Context
How important is context to you? Do you have it as a variable? If so how do you quantify it? Or is it a 100 or nothing situation for you?
I personally find this very hard these days since I only model in a vacuum so I don't pay attention a lot but I feel there is a lot of free edge since it's the hardest thing to incorporate into a model imo
Quantifiable context, not a problem.
Unquantifiable? Always a danger - and especially so if it hits multiple bets simultaneously. If you understand the sport you can make the decision whether to ignore the extra context, to skip the bet, or (what I usually do) play 50% stake.
Context can be huge, even if it can't be accurately gauged. This is moreso on futures markets than it is on instant events.
can you guys give me an example of this in a betting scenario, I am lost as usual
context of the match/game/etcOriginally Posted by danshan11
take Kobe's final game for example
The line closed at -2.5 for Utah because bookies/people knew how they would play against him for that certain match
If it was any other game where Utah tried their hardest to win then the line would be very different
wow, I would not have a clue how to put that into a value so I would flat avoid that, thank you for the explanation
I used true / false parameters to handle it in the past and associate value that way with smo regr. but it was simple... Coming off a loss... Coming off home loss, coming off 10 or more days rest, off a loss of more than 20pts. Things like that. I don't take the time to evaluate it further, or in more complex scenarios. I accept that it may degrade win pct some, and decided that it can lead to overthinking. I automate everything, so I spend very little time on this, and I accept that occasionally context may cost me a small amount
Last edited by Miz; 09-05-18 at 07:05 PM.
I thought the same things but when you go back and look at the past, you really cant see it having any value. of course I have not checked every possibility I am just saying in general
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