The line offered by the books does not reflect a prediction of the game"s outcome rather, it's trying to predict the Public's reaction to that line.
In one instance it appears that you are trying to argue that the inevitable outcome has nothing to do with the line, or it's margin of error. But then you are also saying that the opening line, is implied probability. Aren't those mutually exclusive to each other?
Return on investment has very little to do with wins and losses, someone tried to explain this to you but it didn't seem to sink in. You don't seem dumb, so I assume you understand that somebody can go 1 and 9 and have a return of investment of say.... plus two units.
While another player can go 9 and 1 after betting - 1200 lines, he is down 3 units.
Please explain to me how in that example, wins & losses are a reflection of your ROI