1. #36
    Alfa1234
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    Quote Originally Posted by reigle9 View Post
    i thought consistently beating the closing line was the textbook definition
    Exactly. And that's the only way you'll win long term. Beating the line isn't even enough, you have to beat it by a big enough margin to include the juice. No other definition is correct and no model can work if this doesn't happen. Sure, you can find value every now and then but the market is very efficient in bigger sports and the closing line will on average be correct if your sample size is big enough.

    Those that use a model that finds value in some closing lines (that are able to pick those closing lines that are still "off") are IMHO getting lucky and will not survive if the sample size gets big enough (10k+) when backtested.
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  2. #37
    Gaze73
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheMoneyShot View Post
    I always thought being a SHARP meant... you place your wager moments before the line moves against your initial play. Creating the best opportunity possible... best bang for your buck... and winning that play.

    I've been doing this for nearly 20 years now... I technically play hungry dogs 80% of the time with my formulas...

    Beating the closing line is sort of useless for me... 60%+ of the time you'll get the best line near closing time.
    100% agree, but people keep telling me there is no value on the closing line.


    I can't make the favs pay to save my life. When each event is 50/50 might as well take the dog. I now consider every fav a trap until proven otherwise.

  3. #38
    Alfa1234
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaze73 View Post
    100% agree, but people keep telling me there is no value on the closing line.


    I can't make the favs pay to save my life. When each event is 50/50 might as well take the dog. I now consider every fav a trap until proven otherwise.
    Of course a closing line can still have value. It's just that on average, it doesn't. It evens out but I don't believe anyone can consistently find value in it and make a profit long term betting the closing line as the market is, on average, very efficient. That does not mean you can't make a profit betting the closing line 100 times or so. Variance and standard deviation will make sure that 90% of the times if you bet the closing line 100 times, you will win between 40 and 60 of those bets (assuming a standard handicap line). That means with the -110 line you'd still make a profit 47% of the time simply betting the closing line at random. You sample size needs to be over 10k and after that, you closing line "edge" will be roughly 0. This is assuming a stake of 1 unit. You can only make a profit beating the closing line.
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  4. #39
    Gaze73
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    You know nothing. Bookies lay traps all over the place and I now profit from them instead of falling into them like 99% of squares. Traps are easily -20% roi long term.

  5. #40
    danshan11
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    I think you are consumed with winning and losing. It is very clear winning and losing does not playing into betting success at all. I think if a person models say 25 games and create lines if 22ish of those games are not right on the current line, your model probably is just not accurate enough. Basically what a modeler does is they are arguing that the line is wrong and whatever adjustments the line is seeing are over counted or under counted that is it.
    Example Everyone in the world can say the Pats -8 is fair (opening line) so when the line is Pats -10 why is that? Usually an injury moves it or some weather condition or some coaching decision or a big sports article about something or streaks can do it as well or combination of these. Now a bettor has to determine if that line adjusted is correct or not. They decide and bet and the line closes 50% right (moves their way) 50% wrong (moves the other way) so what we do is we track these and what we need to do to know we are good at this is we need the line to move our way 75%ish of the time and we need it to move more than 50% of the time our way above margin. That is it. If you are getting 12 bets out of 25 games you are doing something wrong, there is not a time when 50% of the games are off enough to give you an opportunity to bet and cover the margin.

  6. #41
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaze73 View Post
    You know nothing. Bookies lay traps all over the place and I now profit from them instead of falling into them like 99% of squares. Traps are easily -20% roi long term.
    you know how I know you are a Nerf , you use the word traps, you know how I know you are a Nerf you think you can make a 20% ROI from betting. Please Gaze read that book I sent you, please please please, you need it!

  7. #42
    Gaze73
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    you know how I know you are a Nerf , you use the word traps, you know how I know you are a Nerf you think you can make a 20% ROI from betting. Please Gaze read that book I sent you, please please please, you need it!
    And I know you are a nerf, whatever that is, because you don't believe in traps. Remember when your dead cert 10 point NFL fav lost 0:14? Believe me, that wasn't just because they had a bad day, you fell into a trap.

  8. #43
    danshan11
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    A Nerf is a ball that is soft and shaped like a football with no sharp points in anyway, Very how would I put it "a NERF is very not sharp". I cant believe you dont know what a Nerf Football is , that is crazy, where you from Uzbekistan or some place not familiar with US products. Anyway I have never given you an NFL play, I dont even look at the NFL until like week 4, I cant model it well without current season data, so I never gave you an NFL play but lets assume I did and I told you a 14pt fave was gonna cover and I bet on it and they lost 45-0, I know this is really hard to believe for a NERF but the final score of that game means nothing what does matter is if I bet it at 14 and it closed at 14 I will lose roughly 2.4% of my money over time and that loss of 2.4% might take 10000 games to show its head or it might take 200 but eventually I will lose 2.4% of my bets doing that

  9. #44
    Gaze73
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    Nobody in Europe knows what a nerf ball is. I was talking about a random 10 point favorite, you have surely bet on many of them over the years. And if they lose 0-45 it's because it was a bad pick. Why is it that in the Beat the Prick contest the same people rise to the top every year? Because they know to avoid bad picks like that, not because they get lucky every year.

  10. #45
    danshan11
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    I just won a tournament here like 2 weeks ago I went 8-1 does that make me good? the answer is OF COURSE NOT, pure luck, sample size is too small. I dont know what the beat the prick contest is but in theory your cappers who are beating the line would of course have a very very very small slight advantage but in reality one season or 20 games or anything that small, it is very difficult for skill to beat variance in that small sample size and large number of entries.

  11. #46
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaze73 View Post
    Nobody in Europe knows what a nerf ball is. I was talking about a random 10 point favorite, you have surely bet on many of them over the years. And if they lose 0-45 it's because it was a bad pick. Why is it that in the Beat the Prick contest the same people rise to the top every year? Because they know to avoid bad picks like that, not because they get lucky every year.
    well in sports betting brother you are 100% pure NERF and that is OK you can fix that go read that book I gave you and read some others, you can turn that nerf frown upside down with a little knowledge.

  12. #47
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaze73 View Post
    Nobody in Europe knows what a nerf ball is. I was talking about a random 10 point favorite, you have surely bet on many of them over the years. And if they lose 0-45 it's because it was a bad pick. Why is it that in the Beat the Prick contest the same people rise to the top every year? Because they know to avoid bad picks like that, not because they get lucky every year.
    the only pick that is a bad pick is a pick where the line i bet at is more fav than the closing line, that is the only bad pick, period!

  13. #48
    Alfa1234
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaze73 View Post
    You know nothing. Bookies lay traps all over the place and I now profit from them instead of falling into them like 99% of squares. Traps are easily -20% roi long term.
    And yet I have placed over 29000 bets in my life and I'm 99,9% certain my ROI is a lot higher than yours is. If you are thinking in terms of "traps for squares"...you are doing something wrong. Do you honestly think some guys sit in a room together and say "let's make this line a trap for squares to fall into this week"? Come on dude, the opening lines get created by fairly complex models and the market adjusts them based on the weight of money. 90% of the line moves initiate with Pinnacle. Pinnacle adjusts their lines 100% based on the weight of money placed, but adjusts the line more depending on their profiling of some players.

    Having a random 10 point favourite lose by 45 points does not mean your bet didn't have value. Your bet didn't have value if that same favourite loses that game 48% of the time if that game is replayed 10 000 times. Those "traps" you talk about are simple random sports incidents that happen every week.
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  14. #49
    Gaze73
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    In BTP contest you make around 70-80 picks, previous year the first guy went 51-18 and the last guy 22-55. According to your theory if 700 monkeys entered the contest one of them could beat the first guy by pure luck. But I can tell you that in the next year's contest the first guy will do better than a monkey, because the closing lines are off.

  15. #50
    danshan11
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    you are wasting your keyboard, Gaze does not understand or want to understand how betting really works. I mean who does the reality of how it works sucks. It just means you need the following or you are just waiting to die.
    you need a huge bankroll to be able to last forever because it can take forever to see any profit even with an edge and you need to know that edge is in the 1%ish or less over the long run. YOU will ONLY make the money in the long term of the edge you have, period..

  16. #51
    Alfa1234
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaze73 View Post
    In BTP contest you make around 70-80 picks, previous year the first guy went 51-18 and the last guy 22-55. According to your theory if 700 monkeys entered the contest one of them could beat the first guy by pure luck. But I can tell you that in the next year's contest the first guy will do better than a monkey, because the closing lines are off.
    The point is, can he beat 10 000 monkeys? He probably can't, because some of those monkeys will get very lucky if they only have to make 70 picks. Also you are forgetting the fact that guy is most likely beating the closing line.
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  17. #52
    danshan11
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    you tell me was I trapped or made bad picks here?
    Date Team League Close Bet At Bet Amt Result O/U Spread Actual CLV
    7/20 Sky WNBA -114 -108 1.08 L U181 1.35%
    7/22 Dream WNBA -116 -108 1.08 L O163 1.78%
    7/24 Mystics WNBA -103 -105 1.05 L 4.5 -0.48%
    7/24 Dream WNBA -125 -106 1.06 L O155.5 4.10%
    7/31 Dream WNBA -133 -107 1.07 L O161.5 5.39%
    8/1 Mercury WNBA -159 -107 1.07 L U175 9.70%
    8/2 Minnesota WNBA -123 -107 1.07 L O151 3.47%
    8/3 Sky WNBA -137 -107 1.07 L O167.5 6.12%
    8/5 Wings WNBA 112 -107 1.07 L -1.5 -4.52%
    8/5 Aces WNBA -139 100 1.00 L 10.5 8.16%
    8/8 Wings WNBA -105 -105 1.05 L 2 0.00%
    8/12 Sparks WNBA -125 -107 1.07 L 1 3.86%
    8/17 Sparks WNBA -150 -107 1.07 L o156 8.31%
    8/21 Wings WNBA 102 -105 1.05 L 6.5 -1.71%
    8/21 Wings WNBA -133 -108 1.08 L U180.5 5.16%

  18. #53
    danshan11
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    those are all losses, Losses gaze big fat losses, woud you tail me after seeing that? If you ask me if I would tail that and I would say hell yeah , full kelly as much as I can get down without exceeding my variance safety point, what would you do Gaze?

  19. #54
    Gaze73
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alfa1234 View Post
    And yet I have placed over 29000 bets in my life and I'm 99,9% certain my ROI is a lot higher than yours is. If you are thinking in terms of "traps for squares"...you are doing something wrong. Do you honestly think some guys sit in a room together and say "let's make this line a trap for squares to fall into this week"? Come on dude, the opening lines get created by fairly complex models and the market adjusts them based on the weight of money. 90% of the line moves initiate with Pinnacle. Pinnacle adjusts their lines 100% based on the weight of money placed, but adjusts the line more depending on their profiling of some players.

    Having a random 10 point favourite lose by 45 points does not mean your bet didn't have value. Your bet didn't have value if that same favourite loses that game 48% of the time if that game is replayed 10 000 times. Those "traps" you talk about are simple random sports incidents that happen every week.
    And I'm 99,9% my roi is higher than yours. I know "pros" like you don't usually go into the double digits, they're just happy grinding with a huge turnover. You made 29k bets and you still don't know how to spot a trap? Hint: It's when the line seems too good to be true. The square thinks he's found a great value favorite just like 99% of the world and then the fav loses and bookies laugh all the way to the bank. Opening lines suck even worse than closing lines and they're proof that the odds makers are clueless. E.g. there's a game and I'm like "that's an easy Over" and take even odds. A few hours later the odds drop by 35%. Why was it at evens in the first place, Mr. Pinnacle? Surely you can do the maths on how much the teams are expected to score? Soon I'll show you all how real men bet.

  20. #55
    Alfa1234
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    those are all losses, Losses gaze big fat losses, woud you tail me after seeing that? If you ask me if I would tail that and I would say hell yeah , full kelly as much as I can get down without exceeding my variance safety point, what would you do Gaze?
    I would also tail...which brings us to the next problem. As soon as you have identified long term value, you will after a while be the only guy that is able to bet it. All bookmakers except some rare exceptions like Pinnacle and Bookmaker will close you down...and if you bet that line at Pinnacle (and it's an early line) you'll get 50% of their standard early limits which aren't that high to begin with...after which the line will be adjusted.
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  21. #56
    Gaze73
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    those are all losses, Losses gaze big fat losses, woud you tail me after seeing that? If you ask me if I would tail that and I would say hell yeah , full kelly as much as I can get down without exceeding my variance safety point, what would you do Gaze?
    No I wouldn't tail you. 15 losses in a row is horrible and a proof that your edge, if any, is not good enough. I ignore picks that are below 10% roi.

  22. #57
    Alfa1234
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaze73 View Post
    And I'm 99,9% my roi is higher than yours. I know "pros" like you don't usually go into the double digits, they're just happy grinding with a huge turnover. You made 29k bets and you still don't know how to spot a trap? Hint: It's when the line seems too good to be true. The square thinks he's found a great value favorite just like 99% of the world and then the fav loses and bookies laugh all the way to the bank. Opening lines suck even worse than closing lines and they're proof that the odds makers are clueless. E.g. there's a game and I'm like "that's an easy Over" and take even odds. A few hours later the odds drop by 35%. Why was it at evens in the first place, Mr. Pinnacle? Surely you can do the maths on how much the teams are expected to score? Soon I'll show you all how real men bet.
    I hope it's higher than mine, because if you don't make a huge amount of bets you won't be making a lot of money with my ROI %. I honestly don't care about how good a line looks...I don't even care what teams are playing.

    And no, I don't know how to spot a "trap"...because no such thing exists. If odds makers are that clueless, I'm sure your "trap spotting model" is raking in millions. Where do you still manage to get your bets on?
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  23. #58
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaze73 View Post
    No I wouldn't tail you. 15 losses in a row is horrible and a proof that your edge, if any, is not good enough. I ignore picks that are below 10% roi.
    You know how I know you are a Nerf
    You think those bets say I dont have an edge
    you think there are picks with 10% ROI
    you think wins and losses have anything to do with sharp

    dude are you just messing around? you dont really think this shit do you?

  24. #59
    danshan11
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    now would you tail me after seeing this?


    Date Team League Close Bet At Bet Amt Result O/U Spread Actual CLV
    7/29 Reds MLB -116 -112 1.12 W 0.87%
    7/30 Cardinals MLB 131 104 0.96 W O8.5 -5.73%
    7/31 Pirates MLB 106 104 0.96 W O8 -0.48%
    7/31 Indians MLB -152 -146 1.46 W 0.97%
    7/31 Phillies MLB 132 141 0.71 W 1.61%
    8/3 Astros MLB -104 -104 1.04 W 0.00%
    8/4 Rangers MLB -139 -104 1.04 W U10.5 7.18%
    8/5 Diamondbacks MLB 110 -105 1.05 W U8 -3.60%
    8/6 Rangers MLB 124 100 1.00 W U10.5 -5.36%
    8/6 Astros MLB -132 -146 1.46 W -2.45%
    8/6 Mariners MLB -125 -115 1.15 W 2.07%
    8/8 Pirates MLB 108 106 0.94 W -0.47%
    8/8 Rangers MLB 142 142 0.70 W 0.00%

  25. #60
    Alfa1234
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    You know how I know you are a Nerf
    You think those bets say I dont have an edge
    you think there are picks with 10% ROI
    you think wins and losses have anything to do with sharp

    dude are you just messing around? you dont really think this shit do you?
    There are absolutely picks with over 10% ROI. You just can't follow them because the value is long gone by the time you start tailing.
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  26. #61
    Gaze73
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    If you don't think there are 10% roi picks at closing lines you're clueless. 10% is child's play. Just wait a couple of months and I'll have solid proof.

  27. #62
    Alfa1234
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaze73 View Post
    If you don't think there are 10% roi picks at closing lines you're clueless. 10% is child's play. Just wait a couple of months and I'll have solid proof.
    You do realise you will be a millionaire if that statement is true, right (at least if you can get more than 5 bets/week in)? Somehow, I doubt it is...
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  28. #63
    tsty
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    gaze hasnt even made 10k lifetime lol

    so much for 10% minimum edge requirements

    the delusion is strong in this one

  29. #64
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    Well I turned 100 into 200 in a week so it will take a while. Also I should've made an account with asianodds instead of Pinnacle, because the odds at the latter really piss me off sometimes - they're even below industry average so I don't even take the bet which of course wins. There was a draw I loved the other week where the price at 5dimes was +650 but only +550 at Pinny so I didn't take it and surely it won. And even at this very moment I'd take Trencin - AEK over 2.5 at 1.86(asianodds) but Pinny offers 1.75 which is below the average of 1.78 so I have to pass.

  30. #65
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by tsty View Post
    gaze hasnt even made 10k lifetime lol

    so much for 10% minimum edge requirements

    the delusion is strong in this one
    Gaze is just messing around he doesnt really think this, he can't.

  31. #66
    Alfa1234
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaze73 View Post
    Well I turned 100 into 200 in a week so it will take a while. Also I should've made an account with asianodds instead of Pinnacle, because the odds at the latter really piss me off sometimes - they're even below industry average so I don't even take the bet which of course wins. There was a draw I loved the other week where the price at 5dimes was +650 but only +550 at Pinny so I didn't take it and surely it won. And even at this very moment I'd take Trencin - AEK over 2.5 at 1.86(asianodds) but Pinny offers 1.75 which is below the average of 1.78 so I have to pass.
    You should have made an account at Asianodds instead of Pinnacle...? Dude...if your roll is so small as to have only 1 funded account, why are you claiming to have a 10% ROI? Why have I even been discussing things? How is Pinnacle below the industry average if the industry average has -110 lines and Pinnacle has -105? A baby can turn 100 into 200. So can 47% of all monkeys. It's turning 100 into 110 every week for years that makes money. Why do you care if your Pinny odd is a bit lower if your ROI is 10%? You are scared to drop the edge to 7% by taking a slightly lower odd? How did you even calculate that ROI? Did you win 3 bets in a row and somehow picked that number out of the sky?

    Ugh...I'm done...
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  32. #67
    danshan11
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    here are my highest CLV picks in this small sample size of my SBR picks and this is out of 150ish picks overall in this list

    8/21 Wings WNBA -133 -108 1.08 L U180.5 5.16%
    7/24 Liberty WNBA -128 -104 1.04 W O155 5.16%
    8/7 Blue Jays MLB -108 114 0.88 L 5.19%
    7/31 Dream WNBA -133 -107 1.07 L O161.5 5.39%
    8/14 Sky WNBA -135 -107 1.07 W O161.5 5.76%
    8/17 Atlas MX 121 155 0.65 L 6.03%
    8/3 Sky WNBA -137 -107 1.07 L O167.5 6.12%
    7/31 Guadalajara MX 116 149 0.67 W 6.14%
    7/27 Mets MLB 121 157 0.64 L 6.34%
    7/25 Royals MLB -130 -100 1.00 W O8.5 6.52%
    7/26 Eskimos CFL -149 -114 1.14 W -7.5 6.57%
    8/15 Liberty WNBA -143 -107 1.07 W U172.5 7.16%
    8/4 Rangers MLB -139 -104 1.04 W U10.5 7.18%
    8/5 Aces WNBA -139 100 1.00 L 10.5 8.16%
    8/17 Sparks WNBA -150 -107 1.07 L o156 8.31%
    8/9 Astros MLB -145 -102 1.02 L U7 8.69%
    8/1 Mercury WNBA -159 -107 1.07 L U175 9.70%
    8/4 Salt Lake MLS -233 -130 1.30 W 13.45%

  33. #68
    Gaze73
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    I've been paper betting for months before I put in real money. Just because the bets were made in spreadsheets doesn't mean they're worthless data. Did I say Pinnacle is below average on every game? No, but sometimes they are and I'm not taking a bet where they charge 5.2% juice for no goddamn reason as in the high profile Trencin - AEK game. I'd like to see a baby turn 100 into 200 in a week with flat stakes on singles. My square father couldn't do that in decades, he's still parlaying -400 favs and cursing when they lose. I know my edge is big and I'll make it big soon.

  34. #69
    danshan11
    I am good at coin flips, I really am!
    danshan11's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-08-17
    Posts: 3,569
    Betpoints: 5023

    put your last ten bets or paper bets in here, lets see how you did? I can tell you in 5 seconds if you are on to anything worthwhile. I can probably tell you if you are a long term winner with just a few bets. put the game and the line you bet at and the closing line if you have it if you dont just put the game and the line you bet at

  35. #70
    tsty
    tsty's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-27-16
    Posts: 463
    Betpoints: 4003

    high lvl troll

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