[danshan11]

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

-410 or higher is money LOL but reality just sample size

[danshan11]

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-...N2U32R85PPF4YP
this article can explain how fave longshot bias works

[danshan11]

I use bettingresource's money management with 3% max bet. Its pretty good if you are selective with the picks. I used to use their picks many years ago as well but stopped about 5 years ago since I travel to Honk Kong and Australia throughout the year because of my work. My time zone issues barred me from following all the releases regularly.

i personally dont like that article and for sure do not like the staking method, 3% on big dogs will get you eventually

[BrickJames]

No.

[danshan11]

Bet size has nothing to do with how good you are. Its about discipline and how you manage the bankroll. Few years ago when I traveled to India and the guy who carried my suitcase to the hotel room struck up a conversation and it somehow steered towards sports and betting. During the 5 minute conversation from the lobby to the room, he revealed that he made more money than his job's base salary (not including tips) betting what is equivalent to $5 to $10 per game. He also mentioned that he made more money from tips than his salary since he would receive tips in USD/GBP/Euors etc. He said he mostly bets on european soccer, tennis and cricket. I don't know his betting details but I am guessing he is a disciplined bettor if he was routinely making profit that is more than his base salary.

The difference between suckers/dgenerate gamblers and good bettors is that good bettors have the discipline to survive and they cash out profits periodically and continue to play with just the initial deposit or two as needed. Degenerates and bad bettors will blow each deposit faster than a crackhead blows his welfare check, and the will keep repeating that process forever.

winning starts with one thing actually having an edge

[SportsSharingun]

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

i think this is a small sample size but it definitely says fading big faves over -300 is a good thing but i would cry
sample size
variance
but this is reality

I think in any event your suggestion would allow someone to play a long time with their money. I would just give slightly different advice.

I could also be projecting slightly because my best attribute as a handicapper is identifying value when I pick dog lines, but I'm not particularly good at identifying value when i pick favorites.

[danshan11]

No.

you sound like every girl i met in college, drunk or not.

[danshan11]

I think in any event your suggestion would allow someone to play a long time with their money. I would just give slightly different advice.

I could also be projecting slightly because my best attribute as a handicapper is identifying value when I pick dog lines, but I'm not particularly good at identifying value when i pick favorites.

when you say you are better at dogs than faves, what are you measuring to say that?

[SportsSharingun]

when you say you are better at dogs than faves, what are you measuring to say that?

My EV/profitability.

I tend to slightly lose money, in the long run, when I pick favorites and have been very profitable when I pick dogs.

(This applies specifically to baseball bets)

Ofc, I don't pick every dog. I'm very selective with my picks in general.

[danshan11]

@sharigan how do you calculate EV?

[danwinkler]

i personally dont like that article and for sure do not like the staking method, 3% on big dogs will get you eventually

Did you read the full article. You seem like you are responding to every comment here just for the sake of increasing your post count.

3% is the max bet. Doubt the max bets are on big dogs. Their full table is 1unit=0.3%, 2unit=0.6%, 3unit=0.9%, 4unit=1.2%, 5unit=1.5%, 6unit=1.8%, 7unit=2.1%, 8unit=2.4%, 9unit=2.7% and 10unit=3%.

[danwinkler]

@sharigan how do you calculate EV?

Expected Value

[danshan11]

Did you read the full article. You seem like you are responding to every comment here just for the sake of increasing your post count.

3% is the max bet. Doubt the max bets are on big dogs. Their full table is 1unit=0.3%, 2unit=0.6%, 3unit=0.9%, 4unit=1.2%, 5unit=1.5%, 6unit=1.8%, 7unit=2.1%, 8unit=2.4%, 9unit=2.7% and 10unit=3%.

thanks for the clarification I did not read the entire article because I started reading some things and noticed them at best as suspect, so I gave them an F for credibility and that was that for that.

thanks for the EV explanation but I was asking how Sharigan calculated it because the response looked like he might be using a different method or maybe did not mean EV at all and just used the term EV

also if you are here long enough you will see my post count is moving along just fine, I dont need to boost it. if you have any questions or comments, feel free I love talking sports!

[Sawyer]

The answer is definetely yes. If somebody is experienced, if he is a veteran, then he must have accumulated a good wealth, a good bankroll over years. Let's say you're betting for 10+ years but if your stake is still 100$, it means you were unable to advance to next level. However, it doesn't mean every bettor with huge stakes/bankroll is good. There's many degens who spend thousands of dollars every night..

[KVB]

The answer is definetely yes. If somebody is experienced, if he is a veteran, then he must have accumulated a good wealth, a good bankroll over years. Let's say you're betting for 10+ years but if your stake is still 100$, it means you were unable to advance to next level. However, it doesn't mean every bettor with huge stakes/bankroll is good. There's many degens who spend thousands of dollars every night..

Agreed, haven't read all of this thread but Sawyer is right on all fronts here. You shouldn't judge a bettor by bet size alone, but those that have matured over years will generally be increasing their bets to make the investment worth the time.

[timdog12]

I usually bet 500-6k a game. I find more excitement betting big wager games. If I am going to bet low I just rather not bet at all.

[danshan11]

I usually bet 500-6k a game. I find more excitement betting big wager games. If I am going to bet low I just rather not bet at all.

are you a rec bettor or pro?

[danshan11]

Expected Value

who copies who?
https://blog.headsandheads.co.uk/wha...value-ev-mean/

[KVB]

How is this in the think tank?



Weak thread for the tank guys.

[danshan11]

How is this in the think tank?



Weak thread for the tank guys.

it got lost a bit but its a great players talk thread, what are you talking about?

[JIBBBY]

Embrace the grind.. Stay disciplined with your bet sizing and don't load up or chase often.. Bank roll won't disappear that way...

[danshan11]

my only advice know you have an edge, if I cant prove to someone else I have an edge I dont bet

[Bsims]

How is this in the think tank?



Weak thread for the tank guys.

Think Tank value going down.

[danshan11]

folks this thread is in players talk it is not in the think tank!

[danshan11]

Think Tank value going down.

whats up Bsims, you stopped talking to me, did I call you a name when I was drunk and black out and not remember it?

[danshan11]

oh they moved it here , OH i was confused like wtf

[darrell74]

small bettors can be good too

no rule here

Correct

[darrell74]

Picking winners outlast all systems.
You must pick winners. Without winning, you don't have a system.

The point is, throw your stupid roi system out. Just win.

[MMXVII]

Think Tank value going down.

The Tank has been empty for a while.

[tsty]

Correct

It's not correct. The aim of the game is to make money.

Do you think there are hedge funds that make small amounts of money that are good? No.

Who ever makes the most money is the best. By default.

[darrell74]

Good point

I respect some $50 bettors a lot more than dime bettors

Size of wager does not matter on how good a guy is

Sure.
A lot of guys on here are internet millionaires.
As a rule, if you don't post a ticket on here and you claim it's over 1k, I don't have time for you. I don't have time to believe your nonsense.

We have a couple guys on here that are working to find ways to win, but we don't have a lot of good ones.
They post a unit size as opposed to a dollar amount, which keeps the distraction of how much the real wager is. I always thought that was a good idea.
Internet trolls come after you if win, but you're only betting five bucks a game.

Hey, if you bet five bucks a game, and you are on a hot streak, that doesn't mean I won't tail and bet a hundred bucks.

[tsty]

that's because you're an idiot

9k posts and still got no idea how this works

"hot streak" fking lol

[SportsSharingun]

Picking winners outlast all systems.
You must pick winners. Without winning, you don't have a system.

The point is, throw your stupid roi system out. Just win.

This. If you need luck to consistently pick winners or value you need to improve your ability to pick winners.

[darrell74]

This. If you need luck to consistently pick winners or value you need to improve your ability to pick winners.

Thanks for the point and welcome to the forum.

You're absolutely right. Why bet if you can't win, because your system tells you to. No way

[tsty]

Why bet if you can't win, because your system tells you to. No way

lolz