This thread has potential, but it's going in different directions. When I say ROI, I'm talking about your Estimated ROI based on your projection. Figure out what that # is. +10% ROI play > +5% ROI play.
I'll introduce a concept of Risk-Adjusted Return. In financial models, there's normally a tradeoff btw Risk + Reward. Take a Moneyline sport like MLB. Consider a -200 Fav which you project to win 70% of the time. Now, consider a +200 dog which you project to win 35% of the time.
Each has +5% ROI. On the fav, you clear +10 for each 200 Risked. On the dog, you clear +5 for each 100 Risked.
Are the two risks equivalent? My answer is a clear No. The -200 Fav is a MUCH better risk. I say this b/c the Fav can handle the swings better. You'll rarely run into a hugely negative run on the -200 Fav. On the +200 Dog, you can easily run into a string of bad results and go broke (or nearly broke).