[Bsims]

Recently, I had a parlay on Toronto as a sizable underdog at home and under the total. The game was against the Yankees and went into extra innings with a score of 0-0. It is extremely likely that the only way to lose this wager was for the Yankees to win. If Toronto were to win, then the score was very likely to be under. This raises the question of should one use live wagering and wager enough on the Yankees to cover the initial bet, thus guaranteeing no loss, but a potentially decent win?

I didn't and the Yankees won 3-0 . I lost the parlay.

A similar situation is developing tonight. I have the Orioles at home and under versus the Red Sox. It's a scoreless game after 7 innings. Going into the top of the 8th, the Sox are still favored. But if they fail to score, then they will be underdogs going into the bottom of the 8th. It wouldn't take much of a wager to offset the initial parlay wager and guarantee a profit on the game. What to do?

[Bsims]

They didn't score so I wagered enough on the Sox at +120 to cover the initial wager. Now I have a sure thing. Was it a good idea? I don't know.

[turbobets]

Doesn't it depend on the roi of your past wagers versus the roi of the hedged bet?

[Larkman]

The ideal would be to work out the EV of letting your current bet stand and the EV of hedging out, if hedging is > then hedge. If you don't have a methodology for doing this then its unknown and long term you will be better off letting bets stand as then at least then you are only paying the overround (or commission if using an exchage) once.

Personally while I know my pre-match bets are value I haven't bothered modelling in game EV so the only hedging I've done is on a few occasions when my nerves failed. Having looked at the difference between the money I actually won, and the money I would have won had I held my nerve, its clear that hedging was not the right decision. This is unsurprising really, as hedging blind is no different to betting randomly, and we all know what happens if you bet randomly.

[Ian]

I'm glad you won your bets, Bsims, but hedging was the wrong play.

Placing a hedge bet can lock in a guaranteed profit, but the expected value of your existing bet cannot be helped by making a negative expectation hedge bet. The only way a hedge bet increases your longterm profit is if the hedge bet itself carries a longterm profit.

[Bsims]

All good comments and I agree that blindly hedging in this case was a bad idea (in spite of the result). A few thoughts come to mind.

First, computing the expected return on the live bet at that point of the game (after 7.5 innings) is difficult. Technically it can be done and I once developed a system to do this. However, there wasn't any way of back testing because of the lack of historic in game line data. Additionally, the system had to rely on data from previous games in a similar situation. There is just too little of this data to be comfortable with.

Secondly, the expected return of the initial parlay changes as the game unfolds. The only way to recalculate this has similar issues raised in the previous paragraph.

Bottom line, bad idea.

[Larkman]

the expected value of your existing bet cannot be helped by making a negative expectation hedge bet. The only way a hedge bet increases your longterm profit is if the hedge bet itself carries a longterm profit.

What if your hedge is EV- but still higher than the EV of letting the bet ride, i.e. hedging out to ensure a smaller expected loss. Its not something I imagine many people do though as hope for unlikely comebacks seems to outweigh cutting your losses for most gamblers.

[trytrytry]

Doesn't it depend on the roi of your past wagers versus the roi of the hedged bet?

u should post lots more. 361 in 15 years. you have much to offer my thinks....

[JoeCool20]

Just like anything else, the outcome determines whether it was the "right decision" or not. If you lose the parlay, then hedging was right, but if you hedge & then the parlay wins, then the hedge was wrong! LOL

[turbobets]

The ideal would be to work out the EV of letting your current bet stand

First, computing the expected return on the live bet at that point of the game (after 7.5 innings) is difficult.

Good point guys, you have to know your edge of letting it ride at the time the hedge would be placed to answer the question. Nearly impossible to do.

[turbobets]

u should post lots more. 361 in 15 years. you have much to offer my thinks....

Thx Triple-T

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Bsims, keep up the good fight. The more u look, the more u find.

Remember that I want to hook u up on a meal, if/when we cross paths at a casino. You an NFL fan? Maybe we could take in an NFL game in your area.