I use a system that generates 325+ likely scores for a MLB game. Using these scores, I can evaluate potential wagers by calculating the probably of success and then combine this with the odds to compute an expected return. I use this for MLB run line wagers as discussed elsewhere. I also use it to evaluate parlays. On occasion, it will find more than one parlay with a positive expected return on the same game. Today there were 3 games like this.
Parlay Prob Exp Ret bal-133 Over 9-115 30.0% $1.090 cws+127 Und 9-105 22.9% $1.064 hou-125 Over 8-105 25.3% $1.005 cle+116 Und 8-115 27.1% $1.149 bos-132 Over 7.5+105 27.9% $1.006 tba+122 Und 7.5-125 28.8% $1.152
This creates a dilemma. What to bet? There are 3 choices on each game.
1. Only bet the parlay with the highest return.
2. Bet both since they both have positive expected return.
3. Bet 1 unit on the one with the highest return and 1/2 unit on the other .
What would you do?