[Waterstpub87]

I don't get the need to even look at systems. If you don't want to look over games and come to your own conclusions on them, why bother?

Depends on your definition of a system.

I build math models for every sport. Successful enough at this point to break about even/slightly winning at -105.

If I had to bet everything blind, I would be a total square. There is just too much information to process without building a model. The human mind is too biased to correctly weight things and come up with a right conclusion. I don't know how people bet seriously without build math models. I would go nuts, it would require like 20 hours of reading a day, especially during winter with college basketball, NBA, NHL, NFL ect. How would you stay on top of that without using a model.

[Gaze73]

Another example that is really troubling is the current system I'm using. This system hasn't had a losing year in the last 8 years with return per dollar being from $1.05 to $1.17. But, after 4 weeks of this season I'm down over $12,000. So do I continue staying with the system, or bail out?

This is the worst. I had a couple of live tested systems in 2017 producing 20% roi at 63% win rate after over 260 selections. Now I when I started betting real money it went completely up to -14% roi at 46% win rate, seriously what the fuk. I wouldn't mind breaking even, but this shit busted half of my BR because they were supposed to be ultra confident picks.

[El Terrible]

There are two reasons. First, you can cover all the games. Looking at each game is time consuming and your available time might mean you only look at a few. Second, some of us view this as an investment. As such we prefer hard analysis over gut feels.

..I dont bet on gut feel, and there is no magic formula

[Inkwell77]

I enjoyed the thread.

I would encourage everyone to look at MLB favorites less than -166 as a "trend/angle"

From 2012-2017 there were about 3000 games in this sample and the return was about +190 units (betting 1 unit per game). The angle (betting large favs) has been profitable every year except for 2013

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

So in my head I think...... damn.... MLB favs have been undervalued...... at some point the market is going to catch up and start raising the price on these favorites

And I haven't kept up on the moves very closely this season, but I do believe favorites have moved higher way more often then they have moved lower (which is interesting)

Overall one is still up about 20 units at this point in the MLB season betting these large favs.

But I agree with the main sentiment (in this thread) that following these trends/angles is probably not a recipe for success.