1. #1
    aljack
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    AlMac Reads The Lines 2018

    Going to try something new.

    After spending the weekend with a good crew of cappers. I feel like I have learned some new tricks of the trade when it comes to reading lines and finding value on the board by simply looking at where the sharp money is.

    I am focusing on derivative bets because I feel like that is where the most value is.

    IE: Basketball

    If there is sharp money on PISTON/LAKERS u213.5

    I am going to look at the 1H and 1Q lines.

    If the total is more than 50% (1H) or 25% (1Q) of the game total - there is value in the pick with the higher margin of difference between the full game total and the fractional game total.

    The same can be said about spreads. If there is sharp money on the Knicks +11.5 , there is value if you can get a line that is 50% (1H) or 25% (1Q) of the full game spread.

    IE: Hockey

    This approach works better with totals because there is no 1st period spreads in hockey unless we are talking international hockey or world competition etc.

    If there is sharp money on HURRICANES/SENATORS O6. There is value if you can get a line at 1P o1.5. Based on the sharps action - they are expecting atleast 2 goals per period (in theory) for them to hit on the full game over. So if you can bet on a 1/3rd derivative of that by betting on OVER 1.5 (1P) - you are eliminating a large portion of variance by betting on small increments of the games.

    This approach will work the same with Baseball using First 5 Innings. If there is sharp action on TOR/BOS u9.5 and you are able to get First 5 Innings u5 - there is value in that play.

    I am basically using the sharp money as an indicator of what picks have value - and then using the market reaction to quantify that value into a bet that has less chance of variance (but same value) than the full game bet.

    -

    If sharp action comes in on one side, the market needs to re-adjust the line to get equal action on both sides - this is when you will see a crash or a run on a game total or spread.

    EX: A basketball game opens at 216.5 - however within a few hours of the over night line being posted - tons of action comes in on the over - so the bookies move the line to 217, then 217.5, then 218, all the way up to 220 and by 12pm EST the line is sitting steadily at 219.5. Now you know that the sharps, the big syndicates, the artificial intelligence guys and the big math model nerds are the ones hammering these early morning lines to try and get the best value - they see an outright edge and they are hammering it hard.

    So when you have a 219.5 line at 12pm EST - a line that opened at 216.5 but jumped all the way up to 220, then back down to settle at 219.5 - you have a bunch of separation in full game, 1H and 1Q numbers. This is where the value is!

    This hypothetical 219.5 game should have a half time total of 109.5 - 110.5, however because the original line opened up at 216.5 - and got bet up - there is separation between the 1H and 1Q lines as compared to the full game. Alot of books don't move their half time numbers in coordination with their full game total numbers. This is where you have the sharpest edge.

    The 219.5 game which should have a theoretical half time total around 109.5 - 110.5 is actually hanging a half time line at 108.5 - this is because the game opened at 216.5, but all the money that rushed in was on the full game total - so there was no adjustment made to the 1H line. You know the sharps see an edge on this over. So the only logical thing to do is to take the half time line at the same value you would get the full game total - however you are reducing your chance of variance by a huge margin.

    Now mind you - there is tons of outside factors you have to consider here - this system works best in the dog days of a regular season - not the playoffs or big marque games like Christmas or opening day. The more that is going on in the books - the more chance of finding value you have. This concept is basically using the market's movements against itself to find where the most value is in a bet - and by reducing your chance of variance.

    Factors to consider:

    Sharps move lines - The big money syndicates in vegas and around the world operate on a different level than the basic old school mentality of "if you see a game with an edge - pound it." - The big money syndicates, the guys that move the lines with their money have a different motive than the majority of recreational and even semi-professional bettors. Sometimes, sharps will hammer an opening line to simply get a better line on the other side. If you like the under in this hypothetical game were talking about - it opens at 216.5 - it gets bet up to 219.5 - sharps are getting 3 pts of value from feeding one side of the total with money and moving it up and up - and then hammering it on the other side.

    The public has deep pockets - Again - this concept is not meant for finding value in the Super Bowl, or the NBA finals, or the Final Four - this concept is meant for the dog days of regular seasons when you can spot something that not everyone is aware of and hit that spot hard. When you are dealing with high profile sporting events - the public recreational bettor has more momentum behind their action than the sharps - so be careful. If you are trying to read lines - get to the board as early as possible because that is when you will find the most true indication of what the sharps are thinking. Once you start dealing with an over saturated market - you are walking blind in the woods and there is no light to help you find your way. So stay out of the woods.

    Team trends matter - Now the absolute best way to use this concept is to pair it with a real handicapping method - use a model - know your league, know your teams. Stats like 'Net Points Per Game 1H/2H' are immensely key here - if you see there is an off line - and you can identify why it is off - that line just lost value - the bookies aren't stupid - they just miss things sometimes. If a team trends to be more of a 1H team than a 2H team - it would make sense that the 1H total is higher than 50% of the full game total. That would be something I would stay away from. However, if you see sharp action coming in on the under - now you have found value, now you are using the market's over reaction to this team trend in your favor. Now you are making the right play.

    Let's see how I do.

  2. #2
    aljack
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    3.26.18

    NBA
    LAL/DET 1H u109 @ 1.86
    NYK/CHR 1H u113 @ 1.90
    NYK +7 1H @ 1.90

    NCAA Basketball
    SF/UNT 1H o66 @ 1.86

    NHL
    CAR/OTT 1P o1.5 @ 1.90
    BUF/TOR 1P o1.5 @ 1.76
    NYI/FLO 1P o1.5 @ 1.71
    NYR/WSH 1P o1.5 @ 1.80
    ARZ/TB 1P o1.5 @ 1.80
    VGK/COL 1P u1.5 @ 2.00
    LA/CGY 1P u1.5 @ 1.83

  3. #3
    aljack
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    Both my line read NBA totals hit by 1-2 pts.
    That's what I am talking about! Value!NYK +7 1H lost. NBA 2-1, +0.81u NHL 1-4, -3.09u Might fade the sharp action on NHL 1P totals. Had alot of success fading sharp action last year in playoffs. We will see tomorrow. I will keep track of fade records when applicable.

    NHL (Fading Sharp Action)
    4-1, +3.21u

    (3 Games Pending)

  4. #4
    Dakota
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    nice work!!thanks

  5. #5
    Jowframs
    Jowframs's Avatar SBR PRO
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    Great Stuff,gl

  6. #6
    aljack
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    Quote Originally Posted by aljack View Post
    3.26.18

    NBA
    LAL/DET 1H u109 @ 1.86
    NYK/CHR 1H u113 @ 1.90
    NYK +7 1H @ 1.90

    NCAA Basketball
    SF/UNT 1H o66 @ 1.86

    NHL
    CAR/OTT 1P o1.5 @ 1.90
    BUF/TOR 1P o1.5 @ 1.76
    NYI/FLO 1P o1.5 @ 1.71
    NYR/WSH 1P o1.5 @ 1.80
    ARZ/TB 1P o1.5 @ 1.80
    VGK/COL 1P u1.5 @ 2.00
    LA/CGY 1P u1.5 @ 1.83
    }

    YESTERDAY

    NBA: 2-1, +0.76u
    NCAAbb:
    0-1, -1u
    NHL: 3-4, -1.36u

    Fading Sharp Action

    NCAAbb: 1-0, +0.91u
    NHL: 4-3, +1.51u

  7. #7
    aljack
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    3.27.18

    NBA

    Spurs/Wizards

    Spurs opened at -1, line has moved to -2, 85% of the cash and 78% of the ticket is on Spurs ATS. 1H line is hanging at -0.5 @ 1.86, 1H is less than half of full game. Total in Spurs game opened at 200.5, line is now up to 201.5/202 - 83% of the money is on the under. 1H total is 97.5 which is less than half of the full game total. No value there if you are backing full game under.

    Line Read: Spurs 1H -0.5 @ 1.86

    ---

    Blazers/Pelicans

    Portland opened at +1 and has now moved to -1, 71% of the cash and 80% of the ticket are on Portland ATS. 1H line sits at -0.5 which is exactly half of the full game spread - 1Q line sits at (pk) which is less than half of the 1H spread - value on the Blazers 1Q.

    Line Read: Blazers 1Q (pk) @ 1.86

    ---

    Mavs/Kings

    Kings opened at +2 and are now up to -2.5. 65% of the cash is on Kings ATS. Kings 1H line is -1, which is less than 50% of the full game line. Value in this spot. The 1Q line is -0.5 which is less than 50% of the 1H line - however there is more value on the 1H line @ 1.86

    Line Read: Kings 1H -1 @ 1.86

    ---

    Bucks/Clippers

    Clippers opened at -2.5, line is moved up to -3.5, 83% of the cash at 68% of the ticket is on Clippers ATS. Clippers 1H is at -1.5 which is less than 50% of the full game total. Value here.

    Line Read: Clippers 1H -1.5 @ 1.90

    ---

    College Basketball

    NIT

    WKU/UTAH

    WKU opened at pk but is now up to -1.5, 67% of the cash is on WKU ats. 1H line is at WKU -0.5, which is 50% less than the full game line. There is value here.

    Line Read: WKU 1H -0.5 @ 1.86

    ---
    NHL

    **NOTE**

    on 5.5 lines where sharps are on the over. 5.5 game total = 1.83 goals per period, which should be an indicator to take the 1P over. However based on previous results - this indication is being stricken from the system.

    ---

    Carolina/New Jersey

    Total is at 6. 62% of the cash is on the over. 1st Period total is 1.5 which is less than 33% of the game total.

    Line Read: NJ/CAR 1P o1.5 @ 1.83

    ---

    PIT/DET

    Total is at 6, 94% of the cash is on the over. 1P line is 1.5 which is less than 33% of the full game total.

    Line Read: PIT/DET 1P o1.5 @ 1.86

    ---

    NYI/OTT

    Total is at 6.5, 63% of the cash and 64% of the ticket is on the over.1P line is at 1.5 which is less than 33% of the game total.

    Line Read: NYI/OTT 1P o1.5 @ 1.71

    ---

    STL/SJ

    Total is 5.5, 92% of the cash and 78% of the ticket is on the under.

    Line Read: STL/SJ 1P u1.5 @ 1.86

    ---

    PHI/DAL

    at 1:57pm today $20,000 of sharp action came in on the Flyers ML. This is the highest bet NHL game of the evening. Tailing the sharp action with a derivative bet.

    Line Read: Flyers 1P ML @ 2.00

    ---

    ANA/VAN

    Total is 5.5, 97% of the cash and 76% of the ticket is on the under.

    Line Read: ANA/VAN 1P u1.5 @ 1.86

    ---

    FINAL FOUR

    EARLY LINE READS

    ---

    Loyola Chicago/Michigan

    Total opened at 126 and is up to 129.5 as of Tue March 27th (5p) 76% of the cash and 80% of the ticket is on the over. 1H total is 59 which is less than 50% of the full game.

    Early Line Read: LoyChi/Mich 1H o59 @ 1.90
    *Not official pick*

    ---

    Villanova/Kansas

    Total line opened and held steady at 155.5. 67% of the cash and 72% of the ticket is on the over. 1H line is 72.5 which is less than 50% of the full game total.

    Early Line Read: VNova/Kansas 1H o72.5 @ 1.90
    *Not Official Pick*
    ---

    GL.

  8. #8
    aljack
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    Tailing Sharps in NHL: 7-5, +1.19u

    Fading Sharps in NCB: 2-0, +1.82u
    Fading Sharps in NBA: 4-3, +0.64

    Fading All Straight Reads: 11-10 +0.87u

    -

    3.28.18

    -

    Sam Houston/N Colorado
    The total line opened at 150 and has held steady since then. 64% of the cash and 68% of the ticket is on the over. 1H line is at 70.5 which is less than 50% of the game total. Value here.

    Line Read: SamHou/NCol 1H o70.5 @ 1.90

    -

    San Fran/North Texas

    NTex line opened at -3 and has held steady since then. 88% of the cash and 61% of the ticket is on NTEX ATS. 1H line is at NTEX -1.5 which is 50% of the full game spread. Value here. Total line opened at 141 and has moved up to 143.5, 69% of the cash is on the over. 1H line is at 67 which is less than 50% of the full game total. Value here as well.

    Line Read: UNT -1.5 @ 1.86, 1H o67 @ 1.86

    -

    Magic/Nets

    Magic line opened at -3 but has moved all the way over to +3, 71% of the cash is on Magic ATS, however 62% of the ticket is on the Nets ATS. This is a value spot. Looks like someone put down a $27,500 bet on the Magic +3 in the past hour. (3:40pm EST)

    Leaning Magic +3, but not an official pick.

    -

    Hawks/TWolves

    Total line opened at 219 and has moved up to 219.5/220. 72% of the cash is on the over. 1H total is 105 which is less than 50% of the game total. Value here.

    Line Read: MIN/ATL 1H o105 @ 1.95

    -

    Blazers/Grizzlies

    Line opened at Portland -5 and is now up to -6.5, 96% of the cash and 90% of the ticket is on Portland ATS. 1H line is at -3 which is less than 50% of the full game spread. Value here. Total line opened at 202 and has held steady with a possible drop to 201.5. 77% of the cash is on the under - 66% of the ticket is on the over. This is a key spot for a straight read. 1H total is 97 which is less than 50% of the full game total. No value here if you are on the under. However, 1Q total is 49.5 which is less than 1 from 50% of the 1H total. I see value here on the under.

    Line Read: Portland 1H -3 @ 1.86, 1Q u49.5

    -

    Cavs/Hornets

    Line opened at Cavs -3 but has now moved down to Hornets -2, 62% of the cash is on the Cavs ATS. 1H line is Cleveland +1 which is 50% of the total game spread. There is value here.

    Line Read: Cavs 1H +1 @ 1.90

    -

    Utah/Boston

    Line opened at Utah -6.5 but has moved to -8.5, 72% of the cash is on the Jazz ATS. 1H line is -5 which is more than 50% of the full game spread. However 1Q line is -2.5 which is just fraction over half of the 1H line. Value here.

    Line Read: Utah 1Q -2.5 @ 1.83

    -

    Mavs/Lakers

    Total line opened at 216.5 but has moved down to 215. 92% of the cash is on the under. 1H line is 110 which is more than 50% of the game total - value here.

    Line Read: Lakers/Mavs 1H u110 @ 1.90

    -

    Leafs/Panthers

    Total line opened at 6 and has held steady. 80% of the cash is on the over. 1P line is 1.5 which is less than 1/3rd of the game total - value here.

    Line Read: Leafs/Panthers 1P o1.5 @ 1.80

    -

    Capitals/Rangers

    Total line opened at 6 and has held steady. 95% of the cash and 81% of the ticket is on the over. 1P line is less than 1/3rd of the total line. Value here.

    Line Read: Caps/Rangers 1P o1.5 @ 1.80

    -

    Flyers/Avs

    Line opened at 6 and has held steady. 72% of the cash and 83% of the ticket is on the over. Avs line opened at -135 and was bet up slightly to -140. 97% of the cash and 80% of the ticket is on the Avs. Two huge bets have come in on the Avs today. Earlier this morning a $28,000 bet came in on the Avs -140 and then again just a few minutes ago just before 5pm - another $12k was dropped on the Avs.

    Line Read: Avs/Flyers 1P o1.5 @ 1.83, Avs 1P @ 1.80

    -

    GL

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