I've completed my analysis of this system using 8 seasons of data. I think there are a couple of lessons here.
Description |
Won |
Lost |
W-L |
Bet |
Net |
Ret/$ |
All games |
4,061 |
4,022 |
39 |
$890,098 |
-$33,914 |
$0.962 |
Same Opponents |
2,210 |
2,132 |
78 |
$477,481 |
-$11,977 |
$0.975 |
Different Opponents |
1,851 |
1,890 |
-39 |
412,617 |
-21,937 |
$0.947 |
The system produced 39 more wins than losses over 8,083 games. But when $100 is laid on each game, there was a net loss of $33,914. The return was $0.962 per dollar wagered. You must measure the value of a system by the return per dollar wagered.
However when you limit the wagers to games with the same opponents as the prior game, the results improve but are still negative.
I decided to focus on these games and look at the results by how much lower today's total is than the prior game. Here are the results.
Description |
Won |
Lost |
W-L |
Bet |
Net |
Ret/$ |
Total 0.5 less than prior |
1,263 |
1,168 |
95 |
$267,161 |
-$1,116 |
$0.996 |
Total 1.0 less than prior |
610 |
607 |
3 |
$134,002 |
-$5,598 |
$0.958 |
Total 1.5 less than prior |
213 |
246 |
-33 |
$50,350 |
-$5,455 |
$0.892 |
Total 2.0 less than prior |
88 |
72 |
16 |
$17,730 |
$882 |
$1.050 |
More than 2.0 |
36 |
39 |
-3 |
$8,238 |
-$690 |
$0.916 |
This resulted in nothing of interest. Finally I looked at the results by year .
Description |
Won |
Lost |
W-L |
Bet |
Net |
Ret/$ |
Year 2010 |
303 |
293 |
10 |
$65,600 |
-$1,705 |
$0.974 |
Year 2011 |
275 |
277 |
-2 |
$60,480 |
-$2,740 |
$0.955 |
Year 2012 |
269 |
251 |
18 |
$57,495 |
-$615 |
$0.989 |
Year 2013 |
290 |
236 |
54 |
$57,680 |
$3,325 |
$1.058 |
Year 2014 |
285 |
252 |
33 |
$59,149 |
$1,082 |
$1.018 |
Year 2015 |
246 |
277 |
-31 |
$57,659 |
-$5,928 |
$0.897 |
Year 2016 |
263 |
275 |
-12 |
$59,170 |
-$3,764 |
$0.936 |
Year 2017 |
279 |
271 |
8 |
$60,248 |
-$1,632 |
$0.973 |
Here is a very interesting lesson. Two of the eight years actually show a profit, 2013 and 2014. Imagine the poor soul who thought he had found this system in early 2013. He makes good money for two years then decides to put some serious money in for 2015, only to lose his ass.
The final lesson is this. If there isn't any logic behind a system, it's probably worthless.